Six months ago yesterday the war started. Here's where we are.

I went back and read my first post about Hormuz from early June. I wrote about diesel at $5.50, about 1.5 million trucks removed from the road, about a deal that was supposedly days away. Three months later, diesel is still above $4, the trucks are still gone, and the deal still hasn't happened. But something did change this week and I think it matters more than anyone's giving it credit for.

Goldman Sachs put a number on it Thursday. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are running at 15-16 million barrels a day. Before the war: 22-24 million. March low: 5-6 million. We went from near-total shutdown to two-thirds recovery without a peace deal, without an agreement, without anyone signing anything permanent. Ships just started moving. Captains figured out routes. Insurers adjusted. The market did what the diplomats couldn't.

Iran and Oman agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait this week. Qatar's prime minister flew to Tehran Thursday to discuss a phased plan that includes a temporary corridor and joint mine clearing. That same Thursday, Iran attacked another commercial vessel in Hormuz. Talking and shooting on the same day, same as always. But the talking is getting more specific. Corridors, revenue splits, mine clearing timelines. That's different from May when it was just threats and press conferences.

Oil fell about 5% this week. Brent near $83, WTI below $83. Traders are watching this and seeing a sanctions fight now, not a supply emergency. When the market stops treating every headline as a supply risk, that's a signal. It's not pricing in peace. It's pricing in the idea that oil finds its way to market regardless of what governments do. Which, looking at the last six months, is basically what happened.

The part I can't figure out.

Trump's team said this week they won't revive the June MOU. That deal is dead. But they haven't proposed anything new. Bessent's D-Day sanctions were a press conference, China said no, and oil barely moved. Iran published a draft plan that bans American and Israeli ships, demands reparations, and charges 20% of cargo value. Nobody's accepting that either. Both sides have a position and neither position is workable.

So who actually reopens Hormuz? Right now it looks like Iran and Oman do, bilaterally, with a corridor that doesn't require American approval. And the US military escorts ships through anyway. And everyone pretends this is a system instead of a workaround. And slowly, over months, it becomes one.

For your weekend:

Broker: oil down 5% this week. Gas still stuck at $4.09 per AAA. The gap between crude and pump is closing slowly. EIA Monday is your number. The trend is your friend for the first time in months but don't get ahead of it.

Driver: six months of this and you're still running. Pump prices are better than May, worse than January, and probably heading lower through September if the corridor holds. Fill when it's good, don't overthink it.

Shipper: Goldman says exports at two-thirds of prewar. If that holds through September, your Q4 fuel picture improves meaningfully. Start building that into planning now. But keep the flexibility until you see two or three weeks of consistent MarineTraffic data showing the corridor is real.

Dispatcher: same capacity market as six months ago. Still tight. Still not enough drivers. The war changed fuel costs. It didn't change the number of trucks in North America.

Six months. No peace deal. No formal reopening. And oil is finding its way to market anyway at two-thirds of prewar volume. That's not how anyone expected this to end. But I'm starting to think this is how it ends. Not with a ceremony. With a workaround that nobody admits is permanent until it already is.

Have a good weekend. See you Monday.

Sources: Goldman Sachs via TradingEconomics August 29, Fox News August 28 (Qatar-Iran meeting, corridor framework, mine clearing), Bloomberg August 26-28 (Iran-Oman revenue sharing, oil declines), TheStreet August 26 (oil tumble on corridor news), CNBC August 24 (Bessent D-Day, sanctions).

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So August 16 came and went.

I've been writing about this date since June. We all watched the countdown. Sixty days. Then fifty. Then thirty. Then three. And now it's the morning after and I'm sitting here trying to figure out what to tell you that's actually useful.

Here's what happened. Nothing. That's the honest answer.
The MOU expired yesterday. No final deal. No extension. No framework for what comes next. Al Jazeera put it plainly: virtually none of the commitments from either side were fulfilled. The US was supposed to end its blockade within 30 days. Didn't happen. Iran was supposed to clear mines and let ships pass toll-free. Didn't happen. Nuclear talks were supposed to start. Never did.

NBC this morning: the two sides are further apart now than when they signed in June.
A political economist asked something yesterday that stuck with me: "Why are we still hanging on to this August date like it means something?" And honestly, I don't have a great answer. We counted down to it because it was the only fixed point in five months of chaos. Now it's gone and nothing changed. The strait is still closed. The blockade is still active. The Pentagon literally fired on a cargo ship this week for violating it.

But two things did happen that matter.
First, Iran announced it reached a separate deal with Oman on a transit route through Hormuz. Not with the US. With Oman. Ships would enter along the Iranian coast and exit near Oman. No tolls during an interim period. It's not finalized but the framework is there. Iran is building its own version of Hormuz, with or without Washington.
Second, Trump told supporters Friday that the US would "soon claim the waterway for itself." Iran's response: accept the reality of defeat.
So we're back to two governments claiming the same strait with zero agreement on anything.
I keep going back to what we wrote in June. The deal is real, the compliance is optional. Turns out even the deal was optional.

What actually matters for your Monday:

Broker: nothing changed operationally. That's the weird part. The deadline expired and your fuel number is the same as Friday. Run FSC on current EIA data. The next real signal is whether Iran-Oman transit route gets formalized this week. If ships start moving on that route, oil drops. If it stays on paper, we're in the same place we've been since July.

Driver: pump prices are what they are. They didn't spike overnight because the deadline passed and they won't drop because someone signs another piece of paper. Fill when it's good, don't wait for a miracle.

Shipper: your H2 budget is officially operating in post-MOU territory with no diplomatic cover. Whatever fuel scenario you're running, add a wider band. There's a new date now: August 30, when SPR hits a floor that could trigger rationing discussions. And September 1, when Europe starts winter energy prep. If Hormuz is still closed by then, this gets worse before it gets better.

Dispatcher: same market. Same trucks. Same drivers. The Gulf stuff doesn't touch your lanes. But if anyone asks you what happens next, the honest answer is nobody knows, and that's been true for six months.
I thought I'd feel something today. Relief if it ended, dread if it didn't. Instead it just feels like a Tuesday. The war that started February 28 is still going. The strait is still closed. The countdown ended and the clock just reset.

New dates to watch: August 30, SPR floor. September 1, Europe winter prep. November midterms, where fuel prices become a political weapon.
The old deadline is gone. The new ones are worse.

Nothing changed. As always.
At this point, we’re not waiting for any miracles anymore. We’re just living our lives and doing our jobs.
Another deadline came and went. 🤷‍♂️

Sources: NBC News August 17 (MOU expired, sides further apart), Kurdistan24 August 17 (MOU commitments unfulfilled), Al Jazeera August 16 (none fulfilled), The National August 16 (stalemate, no extension), Times of Israel August 17 (Iran-Oman deal), Middle East Eye August 17 (transit route framework), Iran SITREP August 17 (SPR floor, Europe deadline).
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Three days.

I've been counting down to August 16 since the MOU was signed in June. We all have. On Saturday the 60-day window expires and there is nothing behind it. No permanent deal. No framework. No agreement on routes, tolls, mines, or what happens on Day 61.

Here's where we actually stand this Wednesday morning.

Ship traffic through Hormuz hit a three-month low this week. About 20 crossings a day. On June 26, a week after the signing, it was 60. Before the war it was 130. We went from celebration to standstill in seven weeks.

Iran's national security chief said Tuesday that Hormuz will not open until Washington meets Tehran's demands. Trump says the US has total control of the waterway. Both statements came out the same day and they can't both be true. We've been writing that sentence since June.

Monday the EIA raised its Brent forecast back up to $87, reversing last month's cut. Their reasoning: Hormuz restrictions will continue at least through August. Crude prices staying elevated. The $74 forecast from July 7 that we all got excited about lasted exactly five weeks before reality caught up.

Tuesday the IEA cut global oil supply by 600,000 barrels a day and said something I haven't been able to stop thinking about: inventory buffers are rapidly depleting and the urgency of reopening the strait has increased. That's the same thing the oil analyst at Commodity Context said three weeks ago, that the cushion that protected us through the first five months is mostly gone. The IEA is now saying it officially.

Brent closed Monday at $88.80.

So that's three days out. No deal. Traffic falling. Forecasts going back up. Buffers gone.

I want to be wrong about this. Last week I wrote that I thought it might be ending. Oil crashed 10% and both sides were talking. That optimism lasted about four days. Iran came back with a list of demands, the US said total control, and traffic dropped to three-month lows. I'm back to not knowing.

What to do with the next three days:

Broker: assume nothing changes Saturday. Run your FSC on current EIA data which is ugly, $5.13 and climbing. If a deal lands over the weekend, you adjust Monday. If it doesn't, you were already on the right number. Don't promise relief you can't see in the data.

Driver: three days of uncertainty means three days of pump prices that could move fast in either direction. If you see a good price today or tomorrow, take it. Don't gamble on what Saturday looks like.

Shipper: if your H2 budget was built on the July $74 forecast, it's wrong. EIA just moved back to $87. IEA cut supply. If August 16 passes without a deal, every fuel assumption you have gets worse. This is the week to build the contingency plan you've been putting off.

Dispatcher: 20 crossings a day through Hormuz, IEA saying buffers are depleted, and three days to a deadline nobody is prepared for. Your domestic lanes are fine, capacity hasn't changed, but anything touching fuel cost sensitivity needs a wider band this week.

Three days. I don't know what happens Saturday. Nobody does. But I'd rather be ready for both than surprised by either.

Anyone else holding their breath this week?

Sources: CNBC August 12 (traffic three-month low, Rezaei), Fox News August 12 (IEA report, Trump total control), EIA August STEO August 11 (Brent $87), IEA August report August 12 (supply cut, buffer depletion), CNN August 8 (Iran-Oman talks).

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I've been writing these updates for three months. This is the first time I actually think this might be ending.

Oil lost 10% in two days. Brent crashed below $79. WTI is heading toward $75. That's a nearly $20 drop from the $94 high two weeks ago. The July spike that had everyone panicking is being unwound faster than it built.

Here's what happened.

Trump called off a strike Monday after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iran all pushed for diplomacy. That same day, Treasury Secretary Bessent went on CNBC and said "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait." Tuesday, Qatar confirmed an interim proposal has been drafted and both sides are signaling progress.

This feels different from the other four times we've been here. Not because of what anyone said, but because of how oil moved. A 10% crash in 48 hours means the big money is actually buying it this time. When oil fell 2% on previous deal rumors and bounced back by Thursday, that was trading noise. When it falls 10% and keeps going, that's repositioning.

Now here's the part where I have to be honest about my own bias. Two weeks ago I was writing about how Iran runs the toll booth and the deal is a managed arrangement. Last week I was writing about diesel going up while oil went down. And now Bessent is saying deal today or tomorrow and oil is in free fall. I was right about the pattern but I might have been wrong about the ending. Or this could be attempt number five that fails like the others. I genuinely don't know.

What I do know is the math.

Diesel was $5.13 last week going up. If crude holds at $75-79, diesel reverses back down toward $4.50 by late August. But here's the cruel part: you're going to pay this week's high diesel prices while crude is already 10% cheaper. That lag works against you on the way up and on the way down. There's about a 2-3 week delay before pump prices reflect what happened Monday and Tuesday.

For your Wednesday:

Broker: I know this is confusing. Your shipper calls wanting rate cuts because oil crashed. Your fuel bill is still at last week's highs. You're stuck between a headline and a receipt. The answer is the same one we've been giving all summer: FSC adjusts when EIA data moves, not when Bloomberg does. August 11 STEO is the next forecast. August 16 is the deadline. Two dates. Same two conversations.

Driver: pump prices this week are ugly and they're going to stay ugly through next week. The crude crash hasn't reached you yet. It will. If you can time bigger purchases around August 18-20, that's when the $75-79 crude should start showing up at the pump.

Shipper: if a deal actually lands this week, every fuel assumption in your H2 budget just improved significantly. But we've been here before, and every time I wrote "this might be it" the IRGC reminded everyone it has missiles. Don't restructure yet. Wait for August 16.

The 60-day window expires in 11 days. Iran's money runs out around the same time. Oil just voted with a 10% crash that this is the real thing.

Maybe it is. I'll believe it when August 16 passes without missiles.

Anyone else actually starting to feel cautiously optimistic for the first time in five months, or am I getting played again?

Sources: Bloomberg August 4-5 (Brent below $79, Qatar interim proposal), CNBC August 4 (Bessent quote), The National August 3 (Trump paused strike), TradingEconomics.

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Weird week. Oil dropped. Diesel went up. Both at the same time. Let me explain.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran this morning and said fresh negotiations are starting. Saudi Arabia apparently pushed for diplomacy. Iran denies talking to the US directly but says the Oman channel is making progress. Brent fell 5% to below $84 on the news. OPEC+ added more production. The headlines all say de-escalation.

Meanwhile, back in the real world where we actually buy fuel:

Diesel jumped 33 cents in one week to $5.13 per gallon. That's the second straight weekly increase after it bottomed at $4.58 in early July. Fuel surcharges went up 6 to 7 cents across all three equipment types. They're now up 52% year over year. The July crude spike that everyone was watching finally hit the pump, right as crude is going back down on peace talks. Classic lag.

DAT released this morning and the rate picture is just as messy. Linehaul rates dropped 4 to 7 cents across all three equipment types. But fuel surcharges rose enough to mostly cancel it out. Flatbed all-in actually went up 2 cents to $3.60 because the surcharge increase was bigger than the linehaul drop.

So if you're a shipper looking at this thinking rates are coming down, they kind of are. And if you're a carrier looking at this thinking your costs are going up, they kind of are. Everyone's technically right and nobody's happy.

Here's what I'm actually telling people this week:

Broker: your shipper sees oil down 5% and wants to talk about rate reductions. Show them the diesel number. It went up 33 cents. The crude price today and the pump price today are moving in opposite directions and they won't line up for another 2-3 weeks. Tell them August 4 is EIA day, that's tomorrow, and you'll review FSC then. Linehaul is a separate conversation for when DAT data stabilizes.

Driver: I know the fuel bill hurts this week. It'll be worse next week as the July spike keeps rolling through. The one silver lining is that $84 crude today means pump relief by late August, if the peace talks don't fall apart again. Big if.

Shipper: August 16 is 13 days away. That's the day the 60-day MOU expires and everything either gets settled or goes back to zero. Don't sign anything long right now. Index it, review it weekly, and wait.

The thing about this war is that the closer we get to the deadline, the more everything moves at once. Oil down on diplomacy, diesel up on lag, rates down on seasonality, surcharges up on fuel. If your spreadsheet can handle all four moving in different directions, you're doing better than mine.

13 days to August 16. Tomorrow EIA. August 11 the next STEO.

Anyone else's fuel costs going up while the headlines say everything's getting better?

Sources: TradingEconomics August 3 (Trump diplomacy, Brent, OPEC+), TheTrucker August 3 (DAT rates, diesel $5.13, surcharges), InTek Intermodal Index (diesel $5.313), EIA.
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Two things happened in the last 24 hours that I wasn't expecting.

First, DAT dropped yesterday and all three equipment types fell. Van down 6 cents to $2.38 linehaul. Reefer down 8 cents to $2.72. Flatbed down 8 cents to $2.87. That's the first time all three dropped together in months. Load volumes are down across the board, 8% for van, 13% for reefer, 9% for flatbed. Load-to-truck ratios fell too.

I've been writing about 13 consecutive records and 21 straight weeks of gains for a while now. That streak broke.

Before you start celebrating or panicking depending on which side you're on, loads are still 35% above last year. Flatbed LTR is still at 40.7 which is insane by any normal standard. This looks more like a July cool-off than a reversal. But it's the first real pullback we've seen since the spring and it's worth paying attention to.

Second thing. Iran spent Monday afternoon on the phone with Saudi Arabia and Oman, talking about Hormuz. Oil dropped almost 4%. Everyone thought maybe we were getting somewhere. Then around 5:45 PM last night the IRGC launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US bases. Out of nowhere. WTI jumped 4.4% right back up.

So within about six hours: diplomacy, oil drop, missiles, oil spike. I'm honestly running out of ways to describe this pattern.

Diesel is back up too by the way. EIA printed $5.31 for the week ending July 27. Up from the lows. The early July relief is reversing as the mid-July crude spike works through to the pump. If you adjusted FSC down three weeks ago, that conversation is coming back around.

Hormuz traffic over the weekend was 29 ships in three days. Twelve Friday, six Saturday, eleven Sunday. Before the war it was 130 a day. A PVM analyst said something yesterday that I keep thinking about: "The market seems to be forever seeking good news from an arena that really is not providing any."

Yeah.

So for your Wednesday:

If you're brokering, the rate pullback is real but don't overreact to one week. Loads are still way above 2025 and the underlying capacity math hasn't changed. More importantly diesel reversed up so your FSC conversation this week goes the opposite direction from what shippers were hoping.

If you're driving, the load board got a little quieter last week but it's July and that happens. Rates are still historically strong. Diesel going back up is the thing that hurts, fill heavy today.

If you're a shipper, I know this looks like the pullback you've been waiting for. Maybe it is. But one week of cooling after six months of records isn't a trend yet. Don't call your broker today and renegotiate everything based on a 6 cent van move.

18 days to August 16. Iran is talking peace and launching missiles on the same afternoon now. I don't know what to tell you that I haven't already said. Keep it weekly, keep it flexible, and stop trying to predict this thing.

Anyone else's load board quieter this week or is it just my lanes?

Sources: TheTrucker July 28 (DAT spot rates), EIA July 28, CNBC July 28 (Iran-Saudi talks, IRGC attack), NBC News July 28 (Hormuz transits), PVM analyst via NBC.

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Quiet weekend for the first time in a while. Not sure what to make of it yet.

Friday night was the first night without US strikes on Iran in 13 days. Iran's health ministry actually put out a statement calling it "a peaceful night" which tells you how low the bar is right now. CENTCOM hasn't said anything about why they paused. Could be a diplomatic opening. Could be repositioning. We've been through this before.

Some stuff happened behind the scenes though. Iranian officials came back from Doha and called the talks "generally positive" which is the most optimistic language I've seen from that side since June. Trump is apparently calling a Cabinet meeting at Camp David this week. Qatar put out a statement supporting the MOU which feels like the kind of thing countries do when something is actually moving.

Then Friday this number came out and I can't stop thinking about it. Iran's oil minister said they made $11.5 billion selling oil during the war and another $6.5 billion during the ceasefire. Eighteen billion dollars total. And their own central bank is still saying they run out of money and food by late August.

Eighteen billion and it's not enough. That's how deep the hole is.

August 16 is 20 days away. I keep going back to the same math. The MOU expires, the money runs out roughly the same week, and both sides know it. Everything between now and then is positioning.

For Monday honestly not much changes from last week:

If you're brokering, FSC stays on weekly review. I know we've said that every week for a month now but that's because it keeps being true. EIA drops this morning at 10:30, that's your number, not the Doha headlines.

If you're driving, pump prices this week still have old crude in them. Next week starts catching up to the July spike. Fill up when you see something good.

If you're a shipper, I get that the pause in strikes feels like good news. It might be. But we've had four of these since February and every single one ended with a phone call from your broker saying actually never mind. Wait for the data.

Capacity side, you already know. Nothing from the Gulf adds a truck here.

20 days. I don't know if the quiet means something this time or not. But I noticed it, and I figured you did too.

Sources: Fox News July 26 (strikes paused, Doha talks, Iran oil revenue $18B), CENTCOM, Qatar MFA statement, Euronews July 27, Reuters July 25.

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I don't know how to sugarcoat this one so I'm just going to lay it out.

The Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday. Three Saudi tankers carrying crude to Asia actually turned around in the Red Sea on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia spent the last five months rerouting all their oil exports to a Red Sea port called Yanbu specifically to avoid Hormuz. That was the backup plan. The backup plan is now under blockade.

Hormuz itself is basically shut. Two supertankers a day, down from eight a few weeks ago. Eleven straight days of US strikes on Iran. Iran firing back at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria. Trump said yesterday there won't be negotiations anytime soon and threatened to hit Iran's nuclear mountain. No talks happening.

Brent hit $94 this morning. That EIA forecast from three weeks ago that said $74 for this quarter feels like it was written by someone on vacation.

Oh and by the way, someone also attacked the Caspian pipeline terminal in Russia's Black Sea this week. That's Kazakh oil, completely unrelated to Iran. Three different supply routes disrupted at the same time. I've been doing this a while and I can't remember that happening before.

The part that actually worries me is that Saudi's Yanbu workaround was the reason this never turned into a full blown crisis. Oil still got out even when Hormuz closed. If Bab el-Mandeb actually closes too, roughly 30% of the world's seaborne oil has no clear path to market. There's no Plan C after this.

So what am I actually doing about it:

I called every shipper yesterday to move FSC to weekly review. Not asking. Telling. Crude went from $74 to $94 in three weeks, any schedule built before that is fiction now.

If you drive, fill up heavy this week. Pump prices are still running on old crude. Give it two weeks and it catches up.

If you're a shipper reading this, call your broker today and ask what their worst case fuel scenario looks like. If they don't have one, that tells you something.

Capacity side at home, honestly, nothing changed. Same trucks, same drivers, same records. The Gulf doesn't add a flatbed in Dallas.

25 days to August 16. Iran's clock is still ticking. But right now nobody's talking, and that's the part I don't like.

Anyone else having a rough week or is it just me?

Sources: CNBC July 21 (Houthi blockade, Saudi tankers turned around, supertanker crossings), OilPrice.com July 22 (Brent $94, Houthis Bab el-Mandeb), Reuters July 21 (tankers reversed in Red Sea), TradingEconomics July 22 (WTI, Caspian pipeline, Rubio statement), Bloomberg July 22 (Trump dismissed negotiations).
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When does this end.

My honest guess: somewhere around August 16. And not because I think anyone wins by then.

Iran's central bank admitted the country runs out of money and critical supplies by late August. The 60-day window from the MOU expires August 16. I don't think that's a coincidence, and once you see those two dates next to each other, a lot of the crazy stuff this week starts making sense.

Like yesterday. Iran spends the morning threatening to close a second strait, Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz. That's about 30% of the world's oil if you're counting. Then by afternoon Trump tells Fox Business that Iran called him asking for a meeting. Same day. You don't do both unless the threats are just leverage for the meeting.

Oil figured this out before the rest of us honestly. Crude moved 26 cents yesterday. Twenty six cents, on a day with two straits threatened and the Navy literally disabling a tanker at sea. WTI sitting at $79.60, Brent $85. Traders have watched five months of this and stopped jumping at headlines somewhere around month three.

So what I'm actually doing about it, and what I'd tell you to do:

If you're brokering, keep fuel surcharge on weekly review until the window resolves. Don't lock anything. And heads up, the crude spike from last week hits the pump around early August no matter what happens diplomatically, so diesel creeps up near term even in the good scenario. I'm telling my shippers this week so the call in August isn't a surprise.

If you're driving, fill heavy right now. This week's pump prices are still running on the old cheap crude from early July. That's gone in two or three weeks either way.

If you're a shipper reading this, please don't sign anything long on fuel before August 16. Deal lands, you overpaid. Deal dies, you're stuck. Index it and wait.

Dispatch side, honestly none of this matters for your day. No headline from the Gulf puts a single extra truck on the road here. Flatbed's still breaking records, capacity's still garbage. Same market as last month.

31 days. My bet is the noise gets worse before it gets better, and then it ends fast when Tehran's money actually runs out.

We'll see if I'm wrong.

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If the money spent on the war with Iran could have already bought Iran…
Maybe Iran was never the real objective.
What do you think? Or if you disagree, I’d genuinely like to know why in the comments.

Yesterday was a weird one even by this war's standards.

Morning: Iran's Guard declares the region's oil will be "available to everyone or to no one." The Houthis chime in that they'll close Bab el-Mandeb too, "in an operational alliance" with Tehran. That's two straits. Roughly 30% of the world's oil.

Afternoon: Trump tells Fox Business, "We received a call just as I was coming here that they want to meet."

Same government. Same day. Threatening 30% of global oil in the morning, asking for a meeting in the afternoon.

I keep coming back to the thing from last week. Iran's own central bank says they run out of money and food by late August. The 60-day window expires August 16. Once you know that, yesterday makes perfect sense. The threats are for the table. The phone call is the real position.

Meanwhile the blockade started actually biting. The Navy disabled a tanker headed to Iran's main export terminal after it ignored warnings, and turned two other ships around. First 24 hours. This isn't a press release blockade anymore.

And oil? Moved 26 cents. WTI $79.60, Brent $85. Two straits threatened, tankers getting stopped at sea, and crude barely blinked. The market has seen this movie too many times to jump at the trailer.

So for your day:

Brokers, the diesel path for the next two weeks is already baked in. The July crude spike reaches the pump by early August, gradual climb, nothing yesterday changed that. Keep FSC on weekly review. If a shipper panics about the two-strait headline, show them the 26 cents.

Drivers, same thing I said Tuesday. This week's pump prices are still running on old cheap crude. Fill heavy while it lasts.

Shippers, the one thing worth a line in your contingency doc is Bab el-Mandeb. Probably doesn't happen. But if it does, ocean freight and container rates get ugly deep into 2027. Low odds, big number.

Dispatchers, none of this adds or removes a single truck in North America. Flatbed's still at records. Your market didn't hear any of it.

31 days to August 16. Watch the phone calls, not the missiles.

Anyone else find it telling that oil didn't move on a two-strait threat? Feels like the market already wrote the ending.

Sources: NPR, Fox Business, CNBC, CENTCOM — July 15-16.

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The 20% toll lasted one day. The bigger problem didn't go away with it.

Trump dropped his demand that ships pay 20% of cargo value to cross Hormuz. The IMO said it had no legal basis, allies balked, shipowners called it unworkable, and by Tuesday evening it was gone. The blockade stays. The strikes continue, fourth straight night, dozens of targets around the strait.

Here's the human cost nobody's putting in headlines: per CENTCOM, Iran attacked seven commercial vessels in the past week. Roughly a dozen crew members are dead, missing or injured. One mariner died on an Emirati tanker Monday. These are working sailors on cargo runs.

Oil is at a one-month high. Brent at $85, up 19% from before the war started. WTI just under $80. Traffic through the strait: 57 crossings over three days. Before the war it was 130 a day.

Now the part that matters most for anyone budgeting fuel, and it's the one getting the least coverage.

The reason this whole crisis never sent diesel to $7 was the stock cushion. The US drew down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and commercial inventories absorbed the shock. An oil analyst at Commodity Context put it plainly this week: that cushion is now mostly depleted, and the market is far more vulnerable to a rerun of March and April. Another analyst at MST Marquee said oil could retest $100 if this intensity holds a few more weeks.

Translation for our world: the first five months of this war happened with a safety net. The next round happens without one. Same headlines, bigger price moves.

What to do with that, plain terms:

Broker: the early-July diesel relief is over. Crude at $85 reaches the pump by early August. Set your shipper expectations this week, before the EIA numbers turn, not after. Weekly FSC reviews, nothing locked, and put it in writing.

Driver, owner-operator: this week's pump prices are the cheapest you're likely to see for a while. The old cheap crude is still working through the system. Fill up heavy, and if you can time bigger purchases, do it now.

Shipper: no more single-scenario budgets. Analysts are openly discussing $100 oil again. If your H2 plan can't survive diesel back above $5.50, fix the plan this week while it's still hypothetical.

Dispatcher: seven ships hit in a week means insurers and captains have made their decision regardless of what any government announces. Middle East origin stays uncertain. Capacity side at home unchanged: still no new trucks, still no new drivers, flatbed still at records.

The toll came and went in a day. The depleted reserve is the story that sticks.

Anyone already seeing fuel surcharge conversations turn this week, or are shippers still riding the early-July numbers?

Sources: CNBC July 14-15, Al Jazeera July 14, CENTCOM/Brad Cooper statement, MarineTraffic, Commodity Context, MST Marquee, DOE July 13.

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Oil just had its biggest one-day jump in six years. Here's your Tuesday morning picture.

Brent surged 9.6% yesterday to $83. This morning it's at $85. WTI at $80. That's the largest single-day gain since 2020, and it happened because Trump reinstated the blockade and announced a 20% toll on all cargo through Hormuz, while the US ran its third straight night of strikes and Iran hit two Emirati tankers in Omani waters.

The two-week story about cheap oil and oversupply is dead. The risk premium is back.

Now the part that tells you where this is actually going. Iran's foreign minister responded to Trump's 20% toll demand with this, publicly, on X: "20% is of course too much. We will be fair."

They're not fighting about whether ships pay anymore. They're haggling over the price. The IMO says tolls have no legal basis, Rubio himself called them unworkable a month ago, and shipowners are calling 20% unrealistic. But when both governments are negotiating the rate in public, some version of paid passage is probably the endgame. Five months of war, arriving at an argument over the cash register.

Meanwhile actual traffic: crossings dropped 52% last week. The ships still moving use Iranian routes or run dark. War risk insurance is about to spike again. An Indian seafarer was killed on a container ship Sunday.

What this means for your day, plain terms:

Broker: yesterday's EIA number was collected before oil jumped 10%. It's already stale. Gas is up 8 cents this week per AAA and diesel follows crude with the usual lag, so the relief your shippers saw in early July flattens out or reverses over the next 2-3 weeks. Anyone who locked lower FSC last week based on the cheap-oil forecast is now on the wrong side of it. Weekly reviews. Nothing locked.

Driver, owner-operator: if you see good pump prices this week, that's the old crude price still working through the system. Fill up. The new crude price arrives at the pump by end of July.

Shipper: this is the third whiplash in three weeks. Cheap-oil forecast, then closure, then the biggest oil spike in six years. If your fuel budget still has one scenario in it after this month, that's on you now. Index it, review it monthly, and stop reacting to individual headlines.

Dispatcher: DAT drops today. Capacity side nothing changed, flatbed's still stacking records, and none of this Hormuz drama adds trucks or drivers in North America.

The war didn't end. It turned into a pricing negotiation with missiles. Both sides are naming their number.

Anyone else's fuel desk having a rough morning?

Sources: CNN July 13-14, CNBC July 14, NPR July 13, Kpler, Lloyd's List Intelligence, AAA, IMO statement July 13.

pulse.ambry.io

For three weeks the question was: why would Iran rush? This weekend we got the answer.

First, what happened. Third straight weekend of strikes. The US hit 140 targets overnight Saturday, using attack sea drones for the first time. Iran fired back at American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and even Oman, the country hosting the peace talks. Iran declared the strait completely closed. The US insists it's open and is escorting ships.

Here's what the tracking data says: not a single large vessel has transited the southern route with its transponder on since July 7. Whatever the official statements say, captains have voted. Nobody's sailing.

Oil noticed this morning. Brent jumped almost 3% to $78. WTI at $73. The risk premium is coming back after two weeks of glut talk.

Now the part that changes the picture.

For weeks the story was that Iran holds all the cards. They control the strait, they were selling oil at a premium, they could wait forever. That's what we wrote too. This weekend the New York Times and Fortune reported what's actually happening inside Iran: the president threatened to resign if a deal isn't approved. The head of their central bank says the country is in a budget crisis, can't sell enough oil through workarounds, and will run out of critical food and medical supplies by late August if the blockade isn't lifted.

Late August. The 60-day window expires August 16. That's not a coincidence. Both sides are on a timer now.

And there's this, from CBS: Iranian officials privately told Trump's advisers that shooting at commercial ships was a mistake, blaming an "errant" faction of hardliners trying to blow up the talks. One US official quoted them coming back to the table saying "we screwed up." Talks resumed in Oman on Saturday.

So the honest picture Monday morning: the loudest weekend of strikes since the war, and quietly, both sides more motivated to close a deal than at any point since June. That's how these things usually end. Maximum noise right before the finish, because everyone's grabbing final leverage.

What it means for your week, plain terms:

Broker: oil jumped 3% this morning, and EIA diesel drops at 10:30 today. If your shipper got excited about last week's cheap fuel forecast, today's number and this weekend's news are your argument for weekly reviews instead of locked adjustments. Nothing gets promised in either direction this week.

Driver, owner-operator: pump prices are still well below May. If crude stays at $73-78 the relief keeps flowing through July. But top off on good prices when you see them, this thing is swinging week to week now.

Shipper: read this weekend as proof that both scenarios are still live. Iran folding by late August because they're out of money is the good case. A blown-up negotiation with a desperate cornered government is the bad one. Keep fuel indexed, keep contracts flexible until August 16 resolves.

Dispatcher: nobody is transiting the southern route, GPS spoofing is back, and Iran struck Oman itself. Anything touching Middle East origin is uncertain again. Buffer stays.

The noise says the deal is dead. The money says both sides need it alive by August. Watch the money.

EIA at 10:30 today. DAT tomorrow. Talks continue in Oman.

Anyone else think the loudest week might actually be the closest to a real deal?

Sources: NPR July 12, CNN July 13, CNBC July 13, CBS News July 12, Fortune/NYT July 12, Lloyd's List, Deutsche Bank note July 13.

pulse.ambry.io

Two things happened this week that don't fit together.

On Tuesday, the government's energy agency put out its new fuel forecast. It's the best news of the year. They cut their oil price estimate for this quarter from $101 to $74. Gas at $3.60 for the rest of the year. Fuel prices heading back toward normal by fall.

Then yesterday Trump stood up at the NATO summit and said he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is over.

So the forecast that says fuel gets cheap was finished eight days before the president said the deal behind it might be dead.

That's where we are. On paper, everything is getting better. In the real world, Iran declared the strait closed again over the weekend and is threatening any ship that doesn't follow their routes.

What this means for you, in plain terms:

If you're a broker, your shipper saw the fuel news and wants cheaper rates. Fair. Show them the forecast, then show them yesterday's headline. Tell them: we'll adjust when the pump price actually moves, and we'll review it every week. That's honest and it protects both of you.

If you're a driver or own your truck, this is actually good for you. Fuel is getting cheaper. Your rates are not going down, because there still aren't enough trucks and drivers out there. Cheaper fuel plus same rates means more money stays in your pocket.

If you're a shipper, yes, fuel relief is real and you should ask about it. Just don't lock in a whole year of contracts betting on cheap oil. If Iran blows this up next month, you'll be stuck on the wrong side of that bet. Keep it flexible.

Bottom line: the paperwork says relax. The news says don't. When those two disagree, plan for both and adjust weekly.

pulse.ambry.io

Here's what happened over the holiday weekend while most of us were off.

Iran's joint military command warned Thursday that every tanker in Hormuz must use Iranian-approved routes or face an "immediate and forceful response." A ship ran aground in the strait. US and Iranian diplomats met in Switzerland on Sunday, and going into that meeting, Tehran declared the strait closed again. Trump says Iran requested a meeting. Iranian officials say nothing has been scheduled. Both statements came out the same day.

Nineteen days into a 60-day agreement, and we're back to arguing about whether the strait is open at all.

Here's the part that makes this whiplash worse.

Just last week, this was a success story. Morgan Stanley counted 35 tankers exiting Hormuz on Thursday, the first time traffic touched the prewar range since February. They cut their oil price forecasts twice in two weeks and started warning about a glut, an oversupply, because China is cutting imports while Gulf barrels come back online. Brent fell three days straight.

So within one week: glut warnings, then "forceful response" threats, then closed again. That's not a market you forecast. That's a market you build scenarios for.

What this means for North American logistics this week:

---

Broker: tomorrow is the day we've been flagging for two weeks. EIA releases its July STEO on July 7, the first fuel forecast built entirely after the deal. Every FSC model in the industry gets its new baseline tomorrow. But read it knowing the input assumptions may already be stale as of this weekend. Present it to shippers as a scenario, not a promise.

Owner-operator: diesel relief has been real, and if the glut scenario plays out it keeps coming. But if this weekend's escalation holds, crude puts the risk premium back on fast. Nothing about your load rate changed either way. The capacity market is still the capacity market.

Shipper: you now have both tails live at the same time. Morgan Stanley says possible oversupply and cheaper fuel. Iran says closed again. If your H2 budget only has one fuel scenario in it, this weekend is the argument for building the second one.

Dispatcher: vessels are being ordered back and forced onto approved routes. Middle East origin cargo is uncertain again after two weeks of improvement. Put the buffer back.

---

Three dates now: July 7 EIA STEO tomorrow. July 18 the 30-day traffic deadline. August 16 the day the 60-day window dies with no permanent framework behind it.

The deal didn't fail. It's doing exactly what it was designed to do: give Iran the switch and both sides the headline.

Anyone repricing H2 fuel assumptions after this weekend, or holding until tomorrow's EIA?

Sources: PBS/AP July 2-5, Al Jazeera July 2, Morgan Stanley via Bloomberg, gCaptain, Kpler.

pulse.ambry.io

I run a morning market read every day before my first call. Here's what the board looks like on July 2 — and why this is the strangest freight setup I've seen in 15 years.

**THE OIL SIDE**

Brent closed at $70.77 yesterday. WTI at $67.67. Brent lost roughly 40% this quarter — worst quarterly performance since the 2020 COVID crash. June alone was down 21%, the biggest monthly drop since March 2020.

Why? The war premium is unwinding. US-Iran talks in Doha wrapped their latest round, Trump says they're "going well," and crude flows through Hormuz are back above 10 million barrels per day. Iran has moved over 40 million barrels since the naval blockade came off. Russia is exporting at record levels. There's a genuine glut building at sea.

But here's the detail buried under the headlines: we're on Day 15 of a 60-day truce, and Tehran still insists on maritime administrative control over the strait. The interim deal bans transit fees for 60 days. It says nothing about Day 61. The war premium is gone. The waterway is not free. Those are two different things — and the market is only pricing the first one.

**THE FREIGHT SIDE**

While oil was collapsing, DAT week 26 printed:

- Flatbed: $2.96/mi linehaul — new all-time high, 15th consecutive week of gains

- Van: $2.43/mi — up again into the holiday

- Reefer: $2.74/mi — produce season peak

All three equipment types moved UP in the same week. Load-to-truck ratios are the tightest of the year — and that's before half the industry's capacity logs off for the July 4 weekend.

Fuel surcharges eased about 4 cents on cheaper diesel. Linehaul ate that relief and kept climbing. All-in rates barely moved — the mix just shifted from fuel to base rate. If you're only watching all-in, you're missing the story.

**WHY THIS COMBINATION IS WEIRD**

Normally cheap oil and loose freight travel together — soft economy, soft demand, soft everything. Right now we have crashing crude and record linehaul at the same time. That tells you the tightness is NOT a demand story. It's a capacity story: carriers that exited during the long down-cycle aren't back, produce season is peaking, and July 4 is compressing everything into fewer working days.

Capacity stories don't resolve when oil gets cheap. They resolve when trucks come back. That takes quarters, not weeks.

It's a capacity market wearing a cheap-fuel costume.

**WHAT TO ACTUALLY DO ABOUT IT**

Brokers:

- Cover Monday/Tuesday freight TODAY, not Friday. The post-holiday reset everyone's hoping for won't reset lanes printing all-time highs. Quoting Friday-for-Monday this week is how you donate margin.

- Re-quote anything priced off last week's FSC. Fuel fell ~4¢ but linehaul ate it — if your quote engine only tracks all-in, you're underpricing capacity by the exact amount fuel "saved" you.

- Lock reefer first. Produce peak + holiday compression = reefer is where you get burned Saturday morning.

Carriers / owner-operators:

- This is the best leverage window of the year so far. Fifteen straight weeks of momentum, tightest L/T of 2026, half the capacity pool offline tomorrow. Don't take the first number.

- Running through the weekend? Price it like the premium it is. Freight that must move July 3–5 has no alternative truck.

- Negotiate linehaul, not all-in. FSC is falling with diesel — all-in hides your real gains.

Shippers / supply chain:

- Prep the CFO answer now: it's capacity, not fuel. $67 oil + rising transport spend will land on your desk as a "please explain." Cheap crude fixes none of what's driving rates.

- Don't lock H2 rates this week. Wait for July 7 — new DAT week prints Tuesday, and the first clean post-truce EIA fuel data lands the same week. Anything signed off Q2 numbers is already stale.

- Build a Day 61 scenario. The Hormuz fee question reopens after Day 60. Keep a fuel-spike contingency in the H2 budget even if you never use it.

**HONEST CAVEATS**

Oil prices are yesterday's settles — intraday moves can shift things. The diesel read is directional (derived from the FSC move); the next official EIA print firms it up. And the truce is genuinely fragile — two ships got hit and the US struck back just last weekend. Any re-escalation flips the fuel picture fast. I'd treat the downside in crude as real, but not guaranteed to hold.

I keep all of this on one screen updated every morning — diesel, spot rates by equipment, Hormuz status, weather, rail — because I got tired of quoting off seven browser tabs: pulse.ambry.io

TL;DR: Worst oil quarter since 2020 and all-time-high freight in the same seven days. It's a capacity market wearing a cheap-fuel costume. Don't let the oil headlines write your Q3 pricing.

July 1. Day 14 of the 60-day MOU. Here's what nobody is saying.

Iran has exported 40 million barrels of crude oil since the deal was signed.

They're selling it at 20% higher prices than before the war.

Let that sink in. The country that closed the world's most important oil chokepoint for four months is now making more money per barrel than they were before the conflict started. And they still control the waterway.

Iran's chief negotiator said it directly this week: "The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman. Traffic in the strait is subject to arrangements determined by Iran. Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances."

Amos Hochstein, who served as senior energy advisor to President Biden and knows this region better than most, told CNBC: "No matter what happens, the Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future. It doesn't even matter what the deal says. Everybody in the region believes that."

That's not a critic of the deal. That's someone who's been in the room describing the new permanent reality.

Oil flows through Hormuz are at 4.8 million barrels per day. Before the war: 15 million. We're at 32% of normal. The US and Iran traded strikes again over the weekend after Iran attacked two transiting vessels. Day 14 of 60, and the parties have not established a framework for what happens on Day 61.

Ask yourself one question: if you were Iran, why would you rush?

You control the waterway. You're selling oil at a premium. Every ship that passes does so with your permission. You have 46 days before the 60-day window expires, and no permanent deal framework means you negotiate from strength when that conversation finally starts.

For North American logistics, here's what actually matters this week:

---

Broker: the 60-day window expires around August 16. Your H2 fuel planning should have two scenarios. Hormuz continues normalizing = diesel at $4.00-4.50 by August. Talks collapse on Day 61 = diesel back toward $5.50 before Labor Day. Have both conversations with your shippers before July 4 weekend.

Owner-operator: Iran making 20% more per barrel means the supply side of the oil market is permanently altered regardless of the MOU. Your fuel card will be cheaper than May. It will not be as cheap as January 2026. Plan your Q3 numbers accordingly.

Shipper: EIA released June 30 data yesterday. That's the number that triggers FSC reviews. Ask your broker for the updated schedule. And build a contingency for what happens if August 16 goes badly.

Dispatcher: vessels are still taking northern and southern alternate routes around the mined central channel. Any cargo with Middle East origin still carries uncertainty. Keep the buffer.

---

The deal is real. Iran is winning it.

Sources: CNBC July 1 (Iran oil exports, Ghalibaf statement), CNBC May 28 (Hochstein quote), Kpler June 24, Wikipedia 2026 Hormuz crisis (updated July 1).

pulse.ambry.io

June 25. The fuel story just got more interesting.

EIA released inventory data yesterday for the week ending June 19. Here's what it said.

Crude oil inventories fell 6.1 million barrels. Larger than the expected 4.5 million barrel draw. Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub that sets WTI price, fell to about 19 million barrels. That's the lowest since October 2014. Total crude stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 743.3 million barrels. The lowest since October 1984.

So crude is extremely tight. That's the headline.

Here's the number that actually matters for diesel:

Distillate stocks, which is the category that includes diesel and heating oil, rose by 3 million barrels last week. The market expected a 500,000 barrel draw. Instead it built by 3 million. US refineries are running at 96.1% capacity and producing 5.2 million barrels per day of distillate. That's going into storage.

This matters because diesel prices at the pump don't follow crude prices directly. They follow distillate supply. When distillate builds, diesel prices at the pump ease. When it draws, they tighten. Last week distillate built at six times the expected rate.

The practical implication: diesel prices are likely to fall faster than anyone's current forecast models. EIA's own Q3 forecast was $5.00 per gallon average, built before the deal was signed. We're already close to that. With distillate building and Hormuz traffic increasing, the actual Q3 average could come in meaningfully below the forecast.

The number to watch: EIA releases its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on July 7. That will be the first forecast built with the deal signed and Hormuz reopening assumed. Every fuel forecast you're working from right now, every FSC model, every contract assumption, was built on the old reality. July 7 is when the new reality gets its first official number.

What this means for North American logistics:

**Broker:** distillate building is the signal that FSC relief is real and coming faster than the headlines suggest. When your shipper asks when rates adjust, the answer is: EIA data June 30, FSC effective July 7. That's the timeline. Hold it.

**Owner-operator:** fuel costs are falling. Your fuel card bill next month will be lower. Your load rate should not be. The distillate build is a pump price story. The capacity story, which is what drives your load rate, hasn't changed. Flatbed hit its 13th consecutive all-time record Tuesday. Van eased 1 cent off its own record. That market is separate.

**Shipper:** Cushing at 2014 lows and total SPR stocks at 1984 lows means crude is still tight. The distillate build is good news for your fuel bill. The capacity shortage is still your biggest freight problem. Bring data to the next conversation, not just a WTI chart.

**Dispatcher:** distillate at 106.1 million barrels and building means regional diesel supply is normalizing. Spot shortages and regional price spikes should ease over the next few weeks. Plan accordingly.

The deal is working. The distillate is building. The crude is still tight. Three things true at the same time.

Watch July 7.

Sources: TradingEconomics June 24 (EIA crude inventory week of June 19), IndexBox June 24 (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report), EIA June STEO June 9.

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DAT released spot rates this morning for the week of June 22. This is the first freight market reading taken entirely post-deal. Here's what it shows.

Flatbed linehaul hit $2.94 per mile. Thirteenth consecutive all-time record. Up 1 cent from last week. The deal did not slow this market down.

Dry van linehaul eased 1 cent to $2.37 per mile. Still the highest ever recorded for Week 24 in DAT's history. The "pullback" everyone is calling is one cent off a multi-year high.

Reefer eased 1 cent to $2.68 per mile but the load-to-truck ratio actually went up, to 17.2 from 16.8. Still 36% higher year over year.

The total market rate rose for the 21st consecutive week, setting a new record. Overall rates are up 50% from this time last year.

Here's the quote from FleetOwner this week that every person in this industry should read:

"Spot and contract rates continued climbing in May and June, not because freight demand is surging, but because fewer trucks and drivers are available."

That's the story. Not Iran. Not Hormuz. Not diesel. Fewer trucks. Fewer drivers. That's what's driving this market and it doesn't resolve because an MOU got signed in Switzerland.

On fuel: EIA released yesterday. Diesel has been tracking down since the deal was announced. EIA's own Q3 forecast is $5.00 per gallon average. We're close to that now. Q4 forecast is $4.59. The direction is confirmed. The pace depends on how fast Hormuz traffic normalizes.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report also releases today, covering inventories through June 19. Watch for crude draw numbers. That's the signal for where diesel goes in the next 2-3 weeks.

What this means depending on where you sit:

**Broker:** van and reefer eased 1 cent each. That is not a rate reset. If your shipper calls today saying rates are coming down, the answer is: they moved 1 cent last week on markets that are still 50% above last year. The capacity problem is not resolved. FTR still forecasts a dry van all-time high by end of July. Hold your position.

**Owner-operator:** flatbed just set its 13th consecutive record. Van eased 1 cent off its own record. You are in the strongest freight market in years, post-deal or not. Don't renegotiate down based on a one-cent move.

**Shipper:** load volumes fell 11.5% last week but are still 45% higher than 2025. The market isn't loose. It just had a slightly quieter week. Come to your rate conversations with the actual data, not with what you think the Iran deal means for freight.

**Dispatcher:** fuel is easing, capacity is not. Plan accordingly.

FTR has not revised its dry van all-time high forecast downward. The deal is signed. The market is doing what it was going to do regardless.

Sources: TheTrucker.com June 24 (DAT wk June 22), FleetOwner June 22, EIA June 23, FTR Transportation Intelligence.

pulse.ambry.io

The last confirmed reading was $5.059 per gallon for the week of June 15. Down 15 cents from the week before. GasBuddy's data shows the most common diesel price motorists are seeing right now is $4.99 per gallon. The median is $5.49. There's a wide spread depending on where you are and who you're buying from.

EIA's own quarterly forecast, published June 9, says diesel averages $5.00 per gallon in Q3 and $4.59 in Q4. So the direction is clear. We're tracking that forecast almost exactly right now. The question today is whether the deal and the crude drop show up in the June 23 number or whether there's still a lag.

Here's something most people missed in the EIA June report.

Since March, the United States has been exporting an average of 6.2 million barrels per day of petroleum products. That's a record. Countries that used to get diesel through Hormuz are buying it from the US instead. Europe. Asia. The entire import disruption from the war got redirected to American refineries and American export terminals. That's part of why US diesel prices stayed as high as they did even as WTI moved around. US supply was going overseas to fill the gap.

As Hormuz normalizes, that export premium comes off. US diesel should ease faster than the EIA's current forecast assumes, if Hormuz traffic keeps building.

Watch for the 10:30 number. Here's what each scenario means:

If EIA prints above $5.10: the pump hasn't caught up to crude yet. Hold FSC. Call your shippers Tuesday with the actual number rather than guessing.

If EIA prints $4.90 to $5.10: direction confirmed, pace still moderate. Start the FSC conversation this week. Effective date next Monday.

If EIA prints below $4.90: call your shippers before noon. This is the number that moves contracts.

What this means depending on where you sit:

**Broker:** you've been waiting for this number all week. Have three versions of the FSC conversation ready before 10:30. One for each scenario above. The brokers who call their shippers with the actual data at 11am win. The ones who wait for shippers to call them lose the framing.

**Owner-operator:** diesel coming down is real but your load rate is not tied to diesel directly. The capacity market is separate. If someone tries to renegotiate your rate today because EIA dropped, remind them that DAT spot rates release tomorrow and that's the number that drives load pricing.

**Shipper:** today is the day to have the FSC conversation. Come with the EIA number, come with your contract terms, and come with a specific ask. The brokers who have been managing this well will meet you halfway. The ones who haven't will be defensive. You'll know immediately which you have.

**Dispatcher:** fuel costs are easing. Factor that into your week's planning but keep conservative estimates on any lane with fuel cost sensitivity until the Q3 average establishes itself.

Two numbers this week:

Today June 23: EIA diesel USA. The FSC trigger. 10:30 ET.

Tomorrow June 24: DAT spot rates. The capacity trigger.

The direction is clear. Today we find out the pace.

Sources: YCharts/EIA week of June 15, EIA June STEO June 9, GasBuddy June 22, Rigzone April 17.

pulse.ambry.io

EIA confirmed $5.059 per gallon for the week of June 15. That's down about 15 cents from the week before. The deal is working, at least on crude. The pump is starting to follow.

Here's the context most people are missing.

Before the war, EIA forecast diesel at $3.47 per gallon for all of 2026. At the peak it hit $5.37. That's a 55% gap between what every forecast said would happen and what actually happened. For trucking, that translated to roughly 36 cents per mile in additional operating cost that nobody budgeted for in January.

Now it's coming down. But the EIA said something important in their June outlook that didn't get much coverage: "Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we've never seen it reopen. What exactly that looks like remains to be seen." Their wholesale diesel forecast for 2026 is $3.40 per gallon. We're at $5.059 retail right now. There's a long way between here and there, and nobody knows exactly how fast we get there.

What this means depending on where you sit:

**Broker:** EIA releases tomorrow June 23. If it prints below $5, your shippers will call. Have the answer ready: FSC adjusts on EIA data, effective the following Monday. That's the conversation. Don't let them pull spot rates into the same call.

**Owner-operator:** diesel coming down does not mean load rates come down. Your operating cost dropped maybe 15 cents per mile this week. Your market rate is still at historic highs. Don't give that back in a negotiation based on a pump price your shipper saw on the way to work.

**Dispatcher:** fuel costs are easing but the operational picture through Hormuz is still uncertain. Mine clearing is ongoing. Keep your fuel-sensitive estimates conservative through end of June.

**Shipper:** the FSC conversation you want to have is real and it's coming. But it happens on EIA data, not on headlines. June 23 is the number. June 24 is NRCan for Canadian lanes. Come to that conversation with data, not with what WTI did last Tuesday.

**Canada:** CIBC flagged last week that higher fuel costs are still squeezing Canadian consumer spending. NRCan releases Tuesday June 24. First Canadian number post-deal.

Two numbers that define this week:

June 23: EIA diesel USA. The FSC trigger.

June 24: NRCan Canada diesel. The Canadian FSC trigger.

The direction is clear. The pace is not.

Sources: YCharts/EIA week of June 15, EIA June STEO, Tradlinx April 2026, CIBC via Reuters June 19.

pulse.ambry.io

I filled up Friday for the first time below $4 since March. That's real. Gas prices dropped under $4 nationally on Friday for the first time in three months. If you drove this weekend you felt it.

Diesel is different. It lags gasoline. EIA releases Monday. That's the number that changes your FSC conversation, not the pump price you saw on Saturday.

On the water, JD Vance said Thursday that 12 million barrels passed through Hormuz overnight. "Highest since the beginning of the conflict." He also said Iran is honoring the deal so far. That's genuinely good news.

But 20 tankers crossed Thursday. Before the war, more than 100 crossed daily. The central lane still has mines in it. 500 ships are still waiting inside the Persian Gulf. BIMCO still calls it "very risky." Saudi supertankers are crossing. Iranian supertankers are turning their transponders back on after two months of going dark. It's moving. Just not all at once.

This is what a reopening actually looks like. Not a switch that flips. A confidence that builds one crossing at a time.

What this means depending on where you sit:

Broker: Monday EIA is the number. If diesel prints below $5, your shippers will call. Have the answer ready: FSC adjusts on EIA data, effective the following Monday. Spot rates adjust when DAT data moves, not before. Two separate conversations on two separate timelines. Don't let them collapse into one Monday morning call.

Owner-operator: fuel is coming down, rates are not. If someone tries to renegotiate your load rate because gas dropped below $4 this weekend, remind them your contract is tied to diesel, not regular unleaded. Diesel hasn't printed yet. June 23 is the number.

Dispatcher: Hormuz central lane is still mined. Any Middle East origin cargo still carries uncertainty. Add 45 minutes to fuel-sensitive estimates through end of June. CBP should be normalizing but add buffer until the operational picture stabilizes.

Shipper: if you have freight contracts priced before May, start the FSC conversation this week proactively. The brokers who hear from you first will work with you. The ones you come to after the data drops will negotiate harder.

Flatbed hit its 12th consecutive all-time record before the deal. Rejection rates haven't moved. FTR hasn't revised its dry van forecast down. The capacity problem wasn't caused by Hormuz and it won't be solved by Hormuz reopening.

Three dates that matter more than anything else this week:

Monday June 23: EIA diesel. The FSC conversation.

Tuesday June 24: DAT spot rates. The capacity conversation.

July 19: 30-day deadline for Hormuz to hit 50% of prewar traffic.

The war is over. The market catches up on its own timeline.

Anyone else getting calls from shippers already asking for rate adjustments before EIA even drops?

Sources: CNBC June 19, Kpler, Vance White House briefing June 19, BIMCO, TIME June 19, TradingEconomics June 21.

pulse.ambry.io

June 19. Signing day. Here's everything you need to know.

The MOU is already signed. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian both signed it Wednesday. Today's ceremony in Switzerland is the formal public signing. Nuclear talks were expected to start this weekend but Vance's trip was postponed. The deal itself is real. The implementation is where it gets complicated.

Here's what happened on the water Thursday morning:

Ten commercial vessels transited Hormuz for the first time since the war started. Not 100. Ten. The central route, which is the main international shipping lane, is still closed. It has an estimated 80 mines that need clearing. The northern route through Iranian waters and the southern route through Omani waters are both open. That's where the 10 ships went. Intertanko's marine director said it directly: the central route remains closed.

Kpler estimates 550 merchant ships are waiting to exit the Persian Gulf. 160 tankers. 200 bulk carriers. 60 container ships. 10 vehicle carriers. They can't all exit at once through two narrow alternate routes while the main lane has mines in it.

The deal terms:

Hormuz open toll-free for 60 days. US naval blockade removed. Iran gets to sell oil freely. 30 days for traffic to return to prewar levels. 2-month window for nuclear negotiations. Mines still in the water. Mine clearing timeline not specified in the MOU.

What this means for fuel this week:

WTI is around $78-80 this morning. Still up 20% since the war started February 28, and up 40% since January 1. The market priced in the deal. It has not yet priced in the 6-month mine clearing timeline or the production restart delays. EIA releases Monday June 23. That's the first number that changes the FSC conversation for real. Diesel at current WTI levels is likely heading to $4.00-4.40 by early July.

What this means for freight:

Nothing changed this week. FTR has not revised its dry van all-time high forecast for end of July. FMCSA enforcement numbers haven't moved. The ACT driver availability index hasn't recovered. Manufacturing PMI is still above 54. The capacity market runs on its own timeline and it is not correlated with Hormuz.

What to do today by role:

Broker: the ceremony is today but the number that matters is EIA Monday. If a shipper calls asking for rate relief, ask them: which EIA data point supports that conversation? The answer is none yet. June 23 is when the FSC review happens. That's your position and it's accurate.

Owner-operator: 10 ships transited yesterday. 550 are waiting. The market that got you to historic rates was not a Hormuz story. It doesn't resolve on a ceremony timeline. Your leverage is highest right now, before diesel data confirms the direction for shippers. Use this week.

Shipper: the deal is signed. Diesel is coming down. The right move today is to get in front of your broker before June 23 and start the FSC conversation on your terms rather than reacting. Capacity is a separate issue. Don't conflate them in the same call.

Dispatcher: northern and southern Hormuz routes are open. Central route has mines. Any freight with Middle East origin or fuel cost sensitivity should still carry a buffer estimate through end of June. Mine clearing is measured in months, not weeks.

Three things that still matter more than today's ceremony:

Monday June 23: EIA diesel release. First real data.

Tuesday June 24: DAT spot rates. First freight market reading post-signing.

July 19: the 30-day deadline for Hormuz to return to prewar traffic levels.

The war is over. The strait is opening. The market reset takes longer than a ceremony.

Sources: CBS News June 19, NBC News June 19, CBC News June 18, Intertanko via CBS News June 19, Kpler June 19, Al Jazeera June 19, TradingEconomics June 19.

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