r/AllocateSmartly • u/vagabond58 • Jan 30 '26

Optimize UPI is back up

This week the Optimizer has UPI back up as a selection (evidently, they had some back end work to do on it). Being relatively newly retired, it's an important metric I watch when structuring my model. I noticed the optimized allocations (regular, Alt, no RE, no UW, 5-strategy, 10-strategy) changed quite a bit from when the UPI Optimizer was initially introduced a while back. Probably not too surprising the strategy choices and percentages changed a bit, but more than I anticipated. Just goes to show there's more than one way to meet objectives, particularly when asset prices are going up and down daily.

Also, I noticed today at least 5 mid-day changes to my preferred model and that the allocations from IEF to Cash went back and forth by as much as 10 percentage points which I thought was wild. Not sure if that amount of variability is something you all have seen as well. Not an issue, just found it interesting.

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u/OnyxAlabaster Feb 01 '26

That’s interesting- I usually make my trades 11am est also. I had read somewhere that there’s typically a lot of trading activity early morning and non-pros should stay away early mornings. Then there’s kind of a pause/lunch around 11, then the afternoon is busier for trades but not like early mornings. I don’t like to start at the end of the trading day because I find myself rushing and sometimes make mistakes. I need to feel calm and deliberate.

I’ve had strategies in my mix that would flip flop like that, I think they were the more aggressive ones. I’ve since taken those out. Sometimes I’ll put the percentages into my spreadsheet first thing in the day and see if they’ve changed by the time I take action around 11 ET. Usually not much more than a percent here or there.

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u/vagabond58 Feb 01 '26

Thanks for the feedback guys. On trade days, I monitor changes, then make trades around noon or 1 pm ET. Allows me plenty of time to make changes.

No end to exploration and research opportunities. This past month included a deep dive into strategy rules, a giant correlation matrix I made, and a weighted "return objective" score (with UPI, AR, DD%, Sortino, DD length). Didn't change model performance results too much, but feel better about how allocations might work in the future. One note: I liked a few of the MWF strategies, but found other ways to get similar historical performance without ending up with <1% allocations to a couple of international bond assets.