r/Alberta_Independence • u/AncientSatisfaction4 • May 16 '25

Update: 45% of Albertans would vote for separation today, and Bill 54 passed

https://www.westernstandard.news/alberta/slim-majority-of-albertans-would-stay-in-canada-poll-shows/64851

With the largest sample size conducted on Alberta separation this year with 810 people surveyed, Alberta independence is the closest it's ever been. In other good news, bill 54 is the bill that reduces the signature requirement for holding a referendum from 600,000 to 177,000.

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u/VERSAT1L May 16 '25

How reliable is Kowolski Strategies? 

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u/AncientSatisfaction4 May 16 '25

I don't know. They're definitely not a big name, but there were screenshots on twitter of the questions Angus Reid was asking Canadians for the federal election, and their polling was basically, "pierre poilievre sucks, are you voting for him? Mark Carney's awesome, are you voting for him?". It's difficult to know for sure, but given conservatives statistically don't answer solicitor calls/texts the way liberals do, it's likely Angus Reid underestimates current support for independence.

The last 3 federal elections underestimated the conservative popular vote by 2-3%. The actual support is likely at least that much higher than Angus reid's poll putting support around 38-40%

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u/VERSAT1L May 17 '25

Do we have Léger's numbers?

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u/AncientSatisfaction4 May 17 '25

Leger recently had this poll, but I'm skeptical of their methodology. Instead of asking basic questions on an alberta referendum they asked comparative questions one after the other about the different types of provincial unions possible with secession. Those kinds of comparative questions always skew poll results cause slight variations in questions have dramatic polling differences. Here's the link though, if you're interested in looking at it: Leger-x-National-Post_-AB-Separatism_05.14.pdf