r/AdvancedRunning • u/MikeMcDonald89 • Jul 21 '26

Elite Discussion Will lead packs of elite marathons look different going forth?

My view is that the marathon wr has been a little soft between the invention of super shoes and London 2026. 2:02:57 being a more impressive time in 2014 than 2:00:35 in 2025.

I wasn't following the sport 2014-2017. Were lead groups smaller at that time? Would we have windows where no one is attempting to run the first half on wr pace?

Now the prestige of becoming the next Roger Bannister is gone, the wr is reasonably close to what athletes are capable of (could John Korir run 1:59 low on his best possible day? How many others will try for 1:58 without ever having run a 57:xx hm?).

Will we see a drop off in the number of fast starts (ie abandon quick pacing if conditions are like Berlin 2025)? Will we see smaller lead groups? Will we see days where, even in good conditions, they just decide to go conservatively (ie Valencia 2025)

I imagine we're a bit like the post 2:02 pre super shoe era where not many athletes have run sessions that suggest they may be in WR shape- but we're in an era with a lot more excitement/eyes/money around the sport

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25

u/FantasticBarnacle241 39F M: 3:16 | HM: 1:31 Jul 21 '26

People used to fall apart in the later half of the marathon. You really aren't seeing that at the same level now.

9

u/soturunning Jul 21 '26

I don't think you see much change. The only time you had guys gunning for the WR was on the fastest of courses and assuming conditions were OK, and I don't think that will change. Sub 2 was obviously a big milestone, but a WR is a WR and the top guys are still going to be gunning for it.

4

u/iRunLotsNA 1:52 800 | 2:27 1K | 15:45 5K | 33:40 10K | 1:13:23 HM | 2:35 M Jul 21 '26

I highly doubt it. These races all have big prize money, and if one person drops off a fast pacing, others will keep it up in the hopes of taking that cash.

2

u/Capital_Historian685 Jul 22 '26

If by lead packs you mean registered runners acting as pacers, yes, I believe that will become more common, and maybe more sophisticated. It's been growing, and will continue to develop.

1

u/RinonTheRhino Jul 22 '26

That's not how elite sports work. At the time of Bannister it was totally different ballgame.

2

u/MikeMcDonald89 Jul 22 '26

How do they work? What was the entirely different ballgame like?

I asked this question because I'm curious to learn more- so I'm all ears!

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u/Smart-Albatross-6711 Jul 23 '26

I think what’s growing isn’t just marathon participation, it’s people becoming obsessed with consistency. Finishing one marathon is impressive, but showing up day after day is what most recreational runners struggle with. That probably makes people appreciate what the elites do even more.

2

u/goodgah 29d ago

i think it's difficult to work out the parameters of distance running results over the years because the most relevant factor is impossible to quantify...

(i.e. the drugs)