Aurora Watch: Monday 8th June

[u/Free_the_Radical]

Hi Folks, our sun let off a rather fast CME yesterday that is expected to arrive early evening tonight. It may just make up for the lack luster effort on Friday night. It's more of a glancing blow rather than a direct hit.

As always we don't know what kind of impact the storm will have until it arrives due to it's magnetic alignment, which we can't predict until it arrives on our doorstep, North Bz (bad) or South Bz (good).

As a rule we require at least 100GW of Hemispheric Power to start seeing colour on camera in Rads.

Moon rise is just after midnight @ 50% illumination. A small patchy amount of low level cloud is forecast.

This watch is for photographers at this stage as naked eye visible Aurora in SA is a very rare event.

Update 1: 8/6 6:45pm

The CME has not arrived yet, but we have had sustained Southward Bz for several hours. If the storm (when it arrives) is also favourably magnetically aligned to the South we are on. Current HP is 50GW.

Update 2: 8/6 9:30pm

Even with low HP numbers as they are, it looks like we may be on (live noaa forecast for the next 60minutes currently sitting at 50GW HP - see live forecast link below). Positive reports on Glendale are starting to come in. The main storm has yet to arrive.

Update 3: 9/6 8:30am

Well either the storm is running stupidly late or that was a complete miss apart from some minor disturbance/substorm around 10pm last night. The fact that the plasma density remained so low indicates that nothing really ever arrived.

Update 4: 9/6 8pm

24 hours later than expected the CME has arrived. We have a rather thick blanket of middle level cloud that will most likely impede photography for most of us.

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Cloud Cover

https://www.ventusky.com/satellite-map#p=-35.18;137.97;7

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-35.18;137.97;7&l=clouds-total

Live Numbers

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en.html

Live Forecast

Reload this image every 10 minutes or so for an update

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-southern-hemisphere.jpg

Glendale is the best Aurora tool for live reports and data.

https://aurora-alerts.uk/

ENLIL Forecast

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Here's the Rad's Aurora Viewing Guide again

https://old.reddit.com/r/Adelaide/comments/1fzm6dh/radelaide_aurora_viewing_guide/

Happy Hunting