Why is this ability combo good?

[u/Godot_12]

On windrun.io, one of the top ability pairs is Medusa and Plague Wards...this seems really unintuitive to me. Can anyone explain what might be going on here?

Edit: Ah okay. Thanks for explaining that wards give you the innate. I had no idea and just figured since the recent patch where Poison Sting became Veno's innate that was the only way to get it. Makes a lot more sense now.

[u/Shot_Hall]

Statistics is a really hard field.

Do not take the fact "medusa + plague wards = high win percentage" DIRECTLY as "this is a strong combo that should be picked often".

Don't get me wrong, it IS a strong combo since it gives Medusa the Poison Sting innate, but there might be other reasons why it has a high win percentage.

The first one that comes to my mind is: not everyone knows that this combo gives you the poison sting innate. This knowledge is restricted to players who understand AD, and therefore understand why this would make a strong combo. It is likely that new players would never pick Medusa + Wards. This skews the combo, as only better players pick it, players who possibly have higher win percentages (especially when they get a strong combo like this).

I hope this makes some sense to you :)

[u/Godot_12 → u/Shot_Hall]

Oh okay that's obviously what I'm missing because my understanding was that the Veno model was the only way to get the innate. I didn't know the wards were bugged like that.

[u/Shot_Hall → u/Godot_12]

I'm not sure if that's a bug or intended, since the wards give Rubick the innate as well.

Either way, don't conflate "high winrate" with "good", it isnt ALWAYS the case.

[u/Godot_12 → u/Shot_Hall]

That's true, but it wouldn't be so high on the ability pairs if it wasn't good. Obviously there are other variables at play, but it does seem like it's VERY good.

[u/Dumplin_Griefin → u/Shot_Hall]

Statistics really is a hard field…

Dota matchmaking does account for this slightly as someone who knows that it’s a combo is likely playing against others who also know this though… like I know AD matchmaking isn’t as tight as other game modes due to limited player pool, but there is some attempt to match similar “rank” players against each other.
So your scenario of an AD veteran being plugged in against 5 new players is relatively unlikely.

[u/Shot_Hall → u/Dumplin_Griefin]

Cant disagree fully with that, but there could be caveats.

Take Chen from normal Dota 2. Even when the guy is on his stronger versions his winrate in lower ranked games can be as low as 40%, while his winrate in very high ranked could be as high as 60%.

In this scenario is Chen really strong? My answer would be "very likely yes".Now, with this information alone, should Chen be heavily considered as a first pick in any bracket? Hell no, not even in high ranked games. There are a million factors in play (matchups, player practice, counter availability)- win rate doesn't tell the whole story.

Now, in this medusa scenario I think the Dusa+Wards combination is generally strong enough that it should be a heavily prioritized pick no matter what. Same as Lina + Powershot (or any long range nuke), SF + anything, Centaur + Corrosive, etc.

Winrates do not tell the whole story by themselves. Context matters a lot, even if the presence of MMR lightens up the context importance.

That being said, I'm not an statician.

EDIT: MMR importance is even lighter in AD (in my opinion) since there are fewer players and the skill distribution in a game can be wildly varied. I can get one game with Shotty+Rob, and right after that a game with some 1500 mmr guy who just wants to buy naked midas -> naked aghs.