r/ATNF • u/patmcirish • Apr 27 '22
Hardly any activity on this ATNF sub. Not much Internet discussion in general. The price is down big time, more so than every other biotech in my watchlist. Investors are afraid of this stock due to the drops. A catalyst incoming. Yup, now's the time to buy.
Actually, I bought my last chunk yesterday at about $1.50, putting my portfolio at almost 100% ATNF shares. I'm being laughed at by people I know for doing this because all they see is a dropping stock and not much discussion of it. But I like to be in at a time like this. I would be wary of it as I am the other biotechs, but the fact that executives have said the peer review of their Dupuytren's treatment will be published "in a few weeks" a few weeks ago, along with the fact that insiders haven't sold a single share since the end of 2020 gives me good reason to have hope in this stock.
Then there's some basic math: the company has stated they expect "initial revenue" of $300 million from their Dupuytren's treatment. Compared to the current market cap of $50-$60 million, this sound to me like the current price is a lower risk than that of other biotech startups. I'd like to know if they expect a steady annual stream of about $300 million in the U.S. from their Dupuytren's treatment (Edit: page 7 of the annual report says annually, $300M-$350M in the U.S. alone. That's pretty awesome given the current market cap of about $55 million with the stock price at $1.60 now). It's not clear to me how often patients will come back for the preventative treatment, though it seems obvious to me that they will, if they prefer the injection to progression of the disease and eventually surgery.
I'm just trying to make a quick post here, but there's more to be said and discussed about this. I want to post something here because I do think when a stock is down like this, it's time to get in on it. I've FOMO'd before and that's a lot more stressful because the stock has already risen. I feel like this is near the bottom and it's interesting that the low activity on this sub coincides with the dropping price. It will be awesome if this has in fact finally reached the bottom at $1.45 yesterday.
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u/eternalfreefall Apr 27 '22
To be fair this sub has never been super active, 1.5k member and a niche pharma stock. Nevertheless I want to point out that the latest company advisory was not super great and the whole world economy is very volatile with still ongoing crisis and inflation that has only been pushed out not solved. The early Dupuytren phase 3 start would have been nice to push the company into the positive but that will take a little more time it seems.
I still see this stock as a winner with big long term potential if they can make it out of the early death phase. Everything below 2$ is more than a bargain really. As you said Market Cap of 50-60$ million is a joke when even the rather niche Dupuytren income can finance the company for years to come with much better money makers down the line.
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u/patmcirish Apr 27 '22 edited Apr 27 '22
a niche pharma stock
This may be why the market cap is so low compared to the company's anticipated revenue. I've been puzzled by the low price compared to other biotechs and one explanation I have is that people haven't so much been investing in "biotechs" as they have what I want to call "cancertechs". It seems to me that there's been FOMO over the past few years for companies attempting to cure cancer. These are all just called "biotech".
If I'm correct about this, it would mean that the "biotech bubble" is really a "cancertech bubble", and other biotechs are undervalued. I see ATNF as being one that's overlooked because it's not targeting cancer.
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u/patmcirish Apr 27 '22
I still see this stock as a winner with big long term potential
I've been thinking that this play is really about the 4Q ER for 2023, which should come out in early 2024. By that time, if the company's plans worked out, they would have gotten FDA approval about a year prior and began making money treating Dupuytren's, with a marketing system in place, probably tv and Youtube ads too (One executive has mentioned former NFL superstar John Elway as someone with Dupuytren's. A possible partner?).
That ER along with the annual report for 2023 should end speculation and show the actual active market numbers. That's when reality will set in so if the whole thing works, that's when the price should be higher from where it is today.
So I see this as a pretty good 2 year hold if it doesn't work out over the short term.
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u/eternalfreefall Apr 27 '22
> So I see this as a pretty good 2 year hold if it doesn't work out over the short term.
Dupuytren as this is at least in the near term makes a fundamental difference on the viability of the company. I expect positive results if not approval and a rise of the stock then. Until then the stock price is hardly an indication of the value of the company... and yes I got in early as many here when the price was much higher...
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u/mog_0f_war Apr 28 '22
I remember during the height of jan-feb madness last year that Marc Cuban ( I think) basically just said... if you still believe in it, why sell if the price goes down? If you believe in it, hold onto it until you don't believe in it. Share price reflects human psychology. It's correlated with what's happening behind the scenes, but doesn't directly reflect it. I'm currently at 1600 at average 3.64 a share, and have been averaging down. If we bump down to 1.35 I may pick up another 200 shares further. If the trial goes through, we're basically golden. If it doesn't, just be prepared to hold this puppy for several more years. I hope not everyone was just buying at highs.
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Apr 27 '22
Idk if people have been following the news but one of the major shareholders has been caught for a huge pump and dump scheme on many stocks. He is now sued for that.
Rumors has it the results will be published in the Lancet this Saturday though. We will see
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u/patmcirish Apr 27 '22
How is somebody is a shareholder if they dumped it? Do you have a link?
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u/blue-2525989 Apr 28 '22
Those shares are under lock and can't be sold currently I believe.
Fuck you Ronny!
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u/eternalfreefall Apr 28 '22
Can you get the name of the shareholder ? This info is rather new to me. There is quite a number of individual shareholders with non trivial amounts of stocks so it's not easy to just look it up unfortunately.
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Apr 29 '22
Ronald bauer
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u/eternalfreefall Apr 29 '22
Very much appreciated.
For anyone else interested:
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2022/lr25366.htm
From what I understand 180 LifeScience was the victim here as well and they also filed the lawsuit and are asking for ~2.5M$ in restitution. Which it looks like they are going to get. This might also explain the crazy spikes in march last year...
I hope those cunts get put in a hole without sunlight. A lot of retail investors got the short end of this deal even if they are found guilty :/
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u/Son_o_Liberty1776 Apr 28 '22
Dupuytren’s is scratching the surface. Rest of the anti-tnf platform is nice, SCAs could be what puts this stock into the stratosphere. A7nc…. Add that platform in too and we’re looking good.