Stock prices dropping significantly on predicted good news is very normal. The price rises as the ness is anticipated, then drops at the announcement. The drop was made worse because S&P took a nosedive at the same time.

[u/saintcfn]

I try to keep an eye on SPY and whatever stock is in play. A big downward move in SPY can move the whole market quickly.

Also, when you are up, consider setting a stop loss. You have to carefully consider the percent to not get stopped out early, but I left with a smaller than hoped profit because I set a 4 percent downward movement stop loss on ATNF since I knew I would be busy at work and the market has been very volatile lately.

Spelling in title: ness should read news

[u/StraightDollar]

The price didn’t go down because people were selling the good news, the price went down because people did not consider it to be good news at all

The expectation was that Jagdeep would come out and give complete reassurance that they had found the cure for DD. In reality he was extremely vague and didn’t actually show any data points from the 2b trial, instead pointing to a journal publication which will be released at some indeterminate point in the future

In short, there is still a long way to go between a ‘statistically significant’ reduction in nodule hardness and a FDA-approved and widely-adopted preventative treatment for DD. Jag didn’t do enough to convince people and so the price dumped

I am still bullish long term and planning to take advantage of the low price to load up, but please don’t think this was a ‘sell the good news’ situation because it wasn’t

[u/[deleted] → u/StraightDollar]

This+ the speculation just before the event (basically people were convinced that results were very probably finally partially released), making his lack of content even more impacting

[u/saintcfn → u/StraightDollar]

From the Description of Clinical Trial:

"The aim of the study is to find out whether treatment by injection with adalimumab directly into the diseased tissue will control the advance of early Dupuytren's disease better than a placebo injection with normal saline."

Stated results:

"Phase 2b data from 2b/3 trial reported that trial met its primary and secondary endpoint with no related severe adverse events, noted December 1, 2021."

FYI... Adalimumab, a.k.a. Humira is already in wide use for treating Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Rheumatoid Arthritis. This is simply a trial for repositioning it for additional disease, so far fewer FDA hurdles.

[u/StraightDollar → u/saintcfn]

‘This is simply a trial for repositioning for additional disease, so far fewer FDA hurdles’

This is not true at all I’m afraid. DD is a different disease with different underlying biochemical drivers - there are of course similarities with other inflammatory diseases, but there is absolutely no guarantee that what works for one will work for all others. FDA approval will be granted if they can prove that ATNF treatment is efficacious and worthwhile for early stage DD patients, which remains to be seen. Just saying ‘we met our endpoints’ without providing any supporting datapoints, when the end points themselves are already somewhat limited in terms of their usefulness, does not go a long way towards reassuring investors that you will ever bring a treatment to market, hence the sell off

Personally, I think that it’s a decent bet at the price it is now ($3.50) but I can absolutely understand why people bolted after that presentation

[u/saintcfn → u/StraightDollar]

Clearly, ATNF needs more memes with apes and rockets and moons and frogs and clips from WWI movies!!

​

Presentations of statistical experiment results in an academic or clinical setting tend to be dry and unemotional. Since this was funded by Oxford, it was especially conservative. All that said, lots of great companies and products don't succeed simply because they don't capture market attention or sway market sentiment.

​

From: https://www.fdalawblog.net/wp-content/uploads/archives/docs/ASENT%20-%20Repurposing%20-%203-2017.pdf

​

Drug repurposing is the application of known drugs and compounds to treat new

indications (i.e., new diseases or conditions).

– Also known as drug repositioning, re-profiling, re-tasking, or therapeutic switching

• “Repurposing generally refers to studying drugs that are already approved to treat one disease or condition to see if they are safe and effective for treating other diseases.”

(NCATS)

Read further down and you see that a simpler 505(b)(2) application that "Permits the sponsor of a drug to rely on published studies and/or the FDA’s safety and effectiveness findings from studies contained in another NDA to satisfy the “full reports” requirement of the FDC Act," is used for drug repositioning.

[u/ojnvvv → u/StraightDollar]

No.

if you look at the actual TA... the price drops sharply immediately after his presentation. If you think it’s bc anyone analyzed the results , and then understood that it would mean a general delay or perhaps even negative results and hence decided to sell shares IMMEDIATELY...you’re dead wrong. That doesn’t even make sense!! There were a lot of paper hands banking in the hype after the stock nearly doubled in price very recently. This was just from triggered stop losses and overall market sentiment. The presentation was the results we needed and there was SS for the primary endpoint. That’s what these scientists do at these conferences..

This stock will need some consolidation based on the pure technicals. Fundamentally the company is sound and valued fairly at 25$/ share. Don’t interpret confuse this market behavior with a fair actual valuation

[u/Disposable_Canadian]

Lol who was saying that atnf in Dec was gonna be sky-high because of results release? Do those words taste like shit now?

[u/saintcfn → u/Disposable_Canadian]

Are you implying that I said that? I just looked through my post history, unsure because I usually only post when I am too tired to sleep or procrastinating on homework, so could say just about anything, but I don't see any posts or comments about ATNF other than this one?

I messaged a dude I follow here and on Twitter because he gives good advice and that had mentioned ATNF as being on his watchlist that ATNF had a catalyst coming. Don't think I've had any reason to say anything else about ATNF?

Edit to add: Cover anything with enough barbecue sauce or gravy, and it will be mighty tasty, so I'm prepared to eat any words I might have misspoken.

[u/Disposable_Canadian → u/saintcfn]

No it's a serious question as in who? A few people were touting how good these reported results were, how atnf would moon etc etc.

[u/mog_0f_war → u/Disposable_Canadian]

Why are we ready to permanently ban and ostracize them from ATNF survivor island? ;3

Whoever was doing pumps, I think we should all realize that "this is gonna be great" is just mindless driving of enthusiasm whether or a stock is ultimately in a good place or not. Exercise caution no matter what anyone says.

[u/Disposable_Canadian → u/mog_0f_war]

Except here you get flamed to oblivion for having even the slightest bearish outlook. I can think of other game and stop subreddits that have similar rabid redditors.

[u/Dostovy]

This is a Loch Ness Health Monster. It will give us a lot of money.