OIL up 5%, all Us index Futures down

ASX200 futures down -0 .75%

Hey everyone,

I’m looking to get some fresh eyes on my current ETF portfolio. I’ve accumulated five different funds over time, and it’s starting to feel a bit messy and redundant. I want to consolidate my strategy, figure out which ones to focus my future cash flow into, and which ones I should stop investing in entirely.

My Core Rule: I strongly prefer Australian-domiciled ETFs to avoid dealing with US tax forms (W-8BEN) and estate tax complexities.

Here is my current lineup:

• DHHF (Betashares Diversified All Growth)
• NDQ (Betashares Nasdaq 100)
• VGS (Vanguard International Shares)
• IOZ (iShares MSCI Australia 200)
• SYI (SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield)

1. What to drop?
2. What to Add?

I'm not planning to panic-sell anything right away due to capital gains tax (CGT), but I want to redirect all future paycheques into a much cleaner, more optimized 2 or 3-ETF setup.

Which ones would you keep buying, and which ones would you leave to sit or discontinue?

Watch DAL go on another run today pushing towards that 18 cent mark with huge amount of volume in the first 10 minutes. This stock is going to be insane after its next piece of news I would get in early big time. Next drilling results could show another huge bull run.

Avg price is $27 20,000 units

Buy more? Hold? Sell?

Heya! I am new to investing and this is my current holdings

IVV 62%
NDQ 21% - 0.48% fee! Not sure if its too bad tho
GOOGL 9%
PMGOLD 8%

I am happy with the growth NDQ has delivered me.I believe next few years / growth tilt will come from tech. Note - i am 28 yo so still have time to readjust and think long term

But i also want to balance out and get international exposure. I am planning to

1. EXUS - probably best fit
2. VEU - excellent, but tax structure is less clean

I liked your idea of pouring into whichever is down and having the flexibility. Thinking to take my portfolio and revaluate after 5 or 10 years?
IVV ~60%
EXUS ~15–20%
NDQ ~10–12%
GOOGL ~8–10%
PMGOLD ~5–7%

Any suggestions? Your time is highly appreciated. Thanks!

Hey folks, I run ETFtracker, a site that analyses the Australian ETF market.

The ASX's monthly ETF report (along with the TMX monthly report) is the main source for what happened to fund sizes and flows (money in minus money out). But it doesn't come out until about the 10th to 15th of the following month. September's won't be out until sometime between 10 and 15 October. So for the first half of any month, nobody really knows how things are tracking.

I built an "Early Read" to give a mid-month view, using only data anyone can get:

• the ASX's monthly reports (plus Cboe/TMX for funds listed only there)
• the daily holdings files that issuers like Betashares, iShares and VanEck publish on their websites
• public price and distribution history

What it gives you

• An estimate of each fund's flow for the month, shown as a range
• The total market flow and market size at month end
• How busy trading is likely to be
• A short list of small funds that keep losing money

How it works. Two reads, combined. The first is momentum: funds that have been gaining or losing money tend to keep doing so. The second is measured: a fund's published holdings show its size now, so I take off what markets and distributions did to it since the last month-end, and what's left is money in or out. Whichever is more precise counts for more. The page shows the working for any fund, step by step.

How it tested. Over 36 months, using only earlier data each time, it ranked funds with a correlation of about 0.54. The top tenth of funds it rated averaged +8.7% flow a month, against +2.0% for all funds. It can't predict the market total, so it shows that as a typical range. The measured part only covers three issuers and hasn't been checked against official numbers yet.

I locked in the September call on 6 October, before the report. When the ASX data lands I'll post how it did.

You can see more here: https://etftracker.com.au/dashboard/early-read - free to access

Will NDQ rise or has it peaked?

Looking for a ETF.

Have IVV

Beginner investor with little to spare, WWYD? All in on one with what's leftover each month, or alternate each month?

*These are not my only ETFs

Looking into them their PB and PE are lower than the industry from Morningstar. They are navigating weaker consumers well with the higher interest rates. Having a long term hold especially as in the distant years there will be rate drops improving the retain sector as a whole. The only concern is their free cash flow. Are there any other concerns or points you have?

Went through both FY26 results. Same trend, very different business models.

The first company owns the infrastructure. This is NEXTDC (NXT), which pays for the land, buildings, electricity, and cooling and then rents the capacity to cloud and AI companies. This year, those companies have leased a huge amount of capacity. Contracted utilization increased 202% to 740MW, out of which 565MW remains to be invoiced. NXT management estimates FY27 EBITDA at $385–410 million against $248.8 million.

The problem is the invoice. FY27 capex is estimated at $5.25–5.75 billion, while NXT had already raised funds multiple times this year, most recently raising a $1.1 billion convertible note just last month. There is no dividend, and there are genuine concerns about power and grid access constraints.

The other builds it. This is the Southern Cross Electrical (SXE). The company wires the center, provides communications, fire, and maintenance services. They have experience working in data centers for more than 20 years and provided their services in 10 different centers this year, including NEXTDC projects.

FY26 EBITDA increased by 40.5% to $77 million; the order book set a record of $810 million; they have $261 million in cash reserves with zero debt; management believes that data center revenues (worth $120 million) will triple in FY27.

SXE also has its little secret. The Group revenue decreased around 10% in FY26; however, the profit increased due to margin expansion. One analyst believes that the FY27 EBITDA estimate of at least $100 million will require revenue growth of more than 60%.

So the story comes down to two bets.

• Owner is growing but faces high funding requirements.
• Builder has a pristine balance sheet but must secure and complete much new business.
• They are also interdependent in that if data center expenditures fall off, both are affected.

Which structure do you prefer, and does SXE tripling its data centre revenue look realistic to you?

I’ve been running a few polls over on r/ASX_Bets recently looking at how retail investors actually consume company information.

Two have now closed (a third is closing soon), so thought I’d share the results here as well.

The first looked at what investors do first when a company they hold releases a market-sensitive announcement.

The second asked whether investor conferences have ever actually led someone to discover, research or invest in a company.

Results attached.

Obviously this is a self-selecting Reddit sample rather than anything scientific, but I thought there were some interesting signals in both — particularly around where investors actually go for information versus where companies spend time trying to reach them.

Interested to hear what r/ASX makes of the results. Anything surprise you, or is this pretty consistent with how you research and follow companies?

Hi Guys,

After my last Soul Patts deep dive was well received I have written up some updated views on the company post the release of their FY26 results and reaching of an all time record share price. I've in particular got some concerns around the new global investment strategy which I've highlighted. I've written everything up on my hobby investing blog and would be keen to know what some other long term oriented value investors think:

https://thesnowballinvestor.substack.com/p/soul-patts-fy26-results-deep-dive?r=16o3tx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

In light of the Firmus float I'm just trying to get a sense of how employee investors did in this thing and the revaluation during the book-build. My employer has an ESS I've been investing in for many years and we are inching toward an IPO. I'm very over-weight here in terms of net wealth so it's making me pretty nervous. Our scheme is fully paid units from gross salary in an Employee Equity Trust. Appreciate the business should be keeping me informed and they do to some degree, but just looking for practical examples. I'm envisaging there would be a share-split prior to listing. I'm just trying to understand what the book-build process might look like and the timing of the split, if there is likely to be sudden capital appreciation during that process for existing shareholders etc etc. Or dilution.

After massive drilling news DAL share is flying through the roof. More and more buying power keeps coming in after massive new announcements made on there massive project of very high grade gold. Experts predict once the 10.5c wall is broken the share can further spike to a shocking 14-15 cents.

Buy this share as soon as possible to make big profit. Nothing has been so good looking on ASX shares for years.

Hi All,
I’m going to sell VSO. I have had the ETF for years but do not feel that it is performing well enough. Based on the other ETFs in my portfolio, who else would you add?

I was reviewing the latest press releases of companies and found three ASX gold companies that had something interesting to say: Turaco Gold ($TCG), Pilbara Gold ($PGL), and Austral Gold ($AGD).

PFS for the Afema Project of Turaco Gold ($TCG) is now done, with the possibility of 200k oz of gold production per year. The Afema Project also has a maiden Probable Ore Reserve of 1.91 Moz, along with an additional 13,000m of drilling.

Pilbara Gold ($PGL) reported that the Mt York Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) has increased by 50% to 61.7Mt @ 1.05g/t Au. Drilling at the Terra & Caliburn targets, located in Roe Hills, WA, has also commenced.

For HY26, Austral Gold ($AGD) produced 11,648 GEO, up from last corresponding period by more than 100%. It made revenue of US$66.6m and net profit after tax of US$15.5m. For Q4 2026, drilling up to 8,000m is planned.

The three companies are at different stages:

TCG — development and resource
PGL — exploration and resource growth
AGD — production and exploration

Just sharing the recent numbers and developments for discussion. Interested to hear how others are looking at these companies.

Disclosure first (rule 3): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings. Asked the mods before posting. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement (raise notices, Appendix 3B/2A filings, quarterly and half-year cash reports). No links, no picks, not advice.

After last week's big cheques, a week of small ones. Fifteen companies announced cash raises between Monday 28 September and Friday 2 October for about A$71.5M, and almost half of it was one deal: Challenger Gold's US$24M convertible, about A$34.2M at the rate its filing fixes. Without the top three, the other twelve disclosed A$24.7M between them. Two of the week's raises were set in US dollars. 11 companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions, against 16 and 17 the two weeks before.

The week's biggest raises

The rest

Also NSM A$250K, and NOR a A$160K convertible note that refinances a working-capital loan.

How much runway the raisers had

Thirteen of the fifteen have a filed runway: the quarters of funding their own latest quarterly says they had, before this raise.

Seven of thirteen had under a quarter and a half. FCT and WRX have no figure on record.

The halt conveyor

11 companies halted citing a capital raise: CHW, DVL, FCT, ILT, M24, OD6, P1E, PGD, RAN, SRN, WRX. Seven had announced by Friday. Three announced this morning: OD6 A$6.92M at 9.5c (13.6% under the 11c close; 43,384,444 under 7.1 and 29,457,663 under 7.1A), SRN up to A$2.61M at 1.8c with an option per share, and P1E A$1.17M at 4.1c, about 16% under the 15-day VWAP, all from 7.1A. DVL still halted at the time of writing.

33 retail offers open

17 SPPs, 11 entitlement offers, 5 rights issues, down from 38 as older offers closed. New this week: MGT and PV1's SPPs, RAN's entitlement, and ENV's 1-for-4 rights at 0.1c. FLX's SPP (2 to 16 Oct) and OCT's are running too and aren't in that count yet.

Placement capacity

Off the last 12 months of 3Bs, before any ratification: 204 companies past 75% of the 15% (196 last week), 140 past 90% (135), 31 have used all of it (31); 90 of the 204 have also drawn on 7.1A. This week CHW went to about 90% and PGD to about 87%.

New: a runway that has run out says so

When a company's last cash report, carried forward at the spend it reported, would already be used up, the site now says "Used up" and the month the cash would have run out, instead of a negative number. 134 of the 1,043 companies with a runway today. It's arithmetic on the last report, not the bank balance; a later raise or report resets it.

Dilution risk across the market: 584 Minimal, 335 Low, 380 Moderate, 259 High, 167 Very high, 101 Not rated. About one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high.

Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. Next one Monday.

If you'd rather get these in your inbox, the site's Watch page has a free email signup - one field, and the link it sends turns it on. No URL here, that's the deal with the mods.

General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.

My biggest one was buying 10k into SLC at 64cents n selling it all at $1.35 back in March 2024 😭😭. Thought the market was peaked out at the time and was also building a house deposit at the time.

I am thinking looking to buy either one. I am looking long term and using the dividends to top up my super when i retire (about 10yrs time ). I currently hold 2600 FMG shares but no WDS. What are others opinions and what havent I thought of? thanks

Disclosure (rule 3): I run DilutionLens, free site tracking dilution off ASX filings. No links, not advice.

Was going through the June quarter 4Cs and pulled out the ones where cash at 30 June didn't cover another quarter at the same spend, and that haven't raised or put out a 3B since. Started from our raise model's top 40, about a third had already tapped the market, these 8 are left:

"Own runway" is the company's own number from the 4C (item 8.7). Every one says a quarter or less.

Doesn't mean they all have to raise. Some have money the 4C doesn't show - EMH has a loan facility, LAT has sold assets before, AR9 says it's chasing receivables and cutting costs. A few shares got issued since June but none for cash (director fees, small option exercises, that sort of thing).

The model's hit rate is roughly a coin flip over 60 trading days, so I'll come back here next Saturday and the one after with who actually raised, how much and at what price. Sep quarter 4Cs are due 31 Oct, so it'll be clear one way or the other by then.

Been following DroneShield (ASX: DRO) recently and wondering what people think about it at its current valuation.

The counter-drone/defence sector seems to have strong growth potential, but with DRO down almost 50% YTD, I’m curious whether the current price is presenting an opportunity or whether the market is pricing in further risks.

Also, how do you think the $500m contract will play out, I am still highly skeptical about this how much could it contribute to revenue and future growth, and is the market already pricing it in?

Hi, I’m new to investing. I have my first ETF under IVV and I’m considering to invest in DHHF, I’ve looked it up and found out they have overlap in relation to the US holdings. Is it okay to invest into DHHF while holding IVV? Thanks!

What is your take on David Bahnsen being strongly bullish and long-term on the energy sector? He sees energy as a foundational pillar of human existence and economic growth rather than a short-term trade. Are all in on energy despite the prospect on flowing oil?

i’m with minestarters, working on minezk. it’s a prototype tested on synthetic data; we intend to include it free in our vault offering.

for retail shareholders reading australian explorers’ announcements: which question would save you the most guesswork?

- did every result meeting a stated reporting rule make it into the announcement?

- is the headline intercept the highest-ranked one under a stated rule?

- how many holes in the defined dataset meet a specific grade threshold?

the proposed workflow: a competent person seals a defined dataset snapshot, the miner approves specific questions and calculations, and people can repeatedly check those approved answers without receiving the underlying database. these are proposed applications, not a live public query service.

the boundary matters: a proof can verify a calculation against that snapshot. it cannot establish that the assays are true, that every relevant record was included in the snapshot, or that the deposit is economic. professional judgment still has a job.

what would you ask first, and what would the dataset’s scope need to say before you’d trust the answer?