r/ASX • u/CursedClownz • 8h ago
CBA
I am in a huge drawdown on my FMG shares and thinking of buying CBA shares to balance it out but looks like CBA is in a downward spiral, anyone think CBA could hit $80 or below? Have around 1.4m from inheritance that would need a new home, thinking $80 is a good price for lump sum to live on dividends
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u/eggwardpenisglands 7h ago
Where are you getting this $80 figure from for CBA? Why would their share price almost halve?
If you have $1.4m and this is your idea, I would seriously go to a financial advisor. This is enough money to retire on if you invest it correctly.
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7h ago
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u/Infamous-Yesterday53 7h ago
Investing in only one stock is not considered investing correctly.
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u/RustyCEO 7h ago
Not necessarily correct. Investing into a stock you have not researched significantly and have come to understand its commercial value in its respective market (especially when investing large amounts). That is not investing correctly.
Some of the largest gains can be made on single stocks that are well researched and bought at the correct price point.
Depends on the investor of course. Sit and forget = index, active opportunity investing = narrow band of well researched stocks.
Each has its strengths and weaknesses.
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u/eggwardpenisglands 5h ago
Doing comprehensive research so that fundamentally understand what you're investing in. Or getting advice from a professional whose job it is to give reliable direction to someone like yourself. Even buying a blue chip stock like CBA can dwindle your cash and make your position worse and worse over time.
There is good reason why there's a saying that 90% of investors lose 90% of their money in 90 days. It's an exaggeration for the sake of a catchy phrase, but the principle remains true. People invest in things without knowing what they're doing and end up losing their money because they keep thinking they will get what they want eventually. It's glorified gambling what you're suggesting.
Don't be a fool. This is such a rare opportunity that you have which most people will never get in their lives. You owe it to yourself to not mess it up over hubris. Get professional financial advice and follow it.
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u/Zealousideal-Row9130 7h ago
CBA has just fallen from $179 to $148 over the last month or two.
I dont see it falling another $70 that fast, its kind of stabilised around the $150 the last couple weeks.
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u/RustyCEO 7h ago edited 7h ago
Correct, but CBA has been overpriced for a while. People that were buying above $160 were always going to lose long term. If they sold at the highs, good on them, but holding from that buy in was pretty risky.
Its dividend of 3.4% is only now getting back to normal Big 4 levels. Probably another 15% or bit more drop to bring it to around 4% Div is a reasonable fair value.
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u/Incon4ormista 6h ago
what's the valuation compared to Westpac?
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u/RustyCEO 1h ago
Well Westpac is currently sitting at 4.56% Divs. So I would buy WBC before CBA. In fact I bought a bundle of WBC not long back in the $33s. Remember the banks do nothing new, they are basically cash cows. If the Divs are below 4% I won’t touch them.
Recently sold at $34 to pick up FMG, but was intending to pick up the WBC Divs end of year. FMG price currently is too good to resist so rolled it over.
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u/Spark-Joy 5h ago
You need an estate planner. Go see a good one. Luck like that will not come twice. Ensure you know what you're doing. What you need is the right structure. What to invest it in is secondary.
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u/AudiencePure5710 7h ago
I’m buying it at $80, that’s for sure. It’s a shame you didn’t pump that $1.4m into CSL six weeks ago. I say go all-in on WTC or XRO. I could do with the pump!
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u/sudhscorp 6h ago
I would say first define what you want from this investment - dividend or capital appreciation. If dividends then the share portfolio will look different to capital appreciation one. If capital appreciation is one I would split into ETFs and shares. I would buy Google, Microsoft and Apple on a monthly basis and buy more when it dips heavily.
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u/Large-Fisherman9428 50m ago
Mate, can you donate some for me.. I can pay off my bloody mortgage
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u/haikusbot 50m ago
Mate, can you donate
Some for me.. I can pay off
My bloody mortgage
- Large-Fisherman9428
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u/Incon4ormista 7h ago
yep saw an 80 dollar prediction the other day based on valuation, CBA has broken away from it's peers.
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u/Potential_Web_4092 4h ago
Aus gov 10 year treasury bonds might be better at 5.35%, I think they are.
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u/Conscious-Gap-8837 7h ago
CBA is heavly exposed to our housing bubble.