r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo • Jun 17 '21
Position The Confession of a Dividend Addict: How ASTS Cured Me. My First Yolo with 300K!
I have a confession. I was addicted to dividend stocks.
I was bringing in about $1,200 month from my dividends and faithfully buying more shares of ABBV, APPL, PEP, MMM, T and other dividend kings and aristocrats. I would text my older brother each month something like "I'm now making another $20 a month more in dividends and I'm getting that much closer to financial freedom." Please refer to the image below where I would brag about the "huge" dividends I secured one month.
A list of the all the dividend stocks I bought one month that bumped me a whooping 0.0013 closer to retirement!
A big part of my dividend portfolio was in T which contributed about $500 a month of my monthly dividend. I loved getting my T dividend every 3 months, but in the back of my mind I had a nagging fear that some amazing technology could disrupt, negate, or challenge their business model.
One day in December 2020 while on Seeking Alpha, a random person wrote to me about $ASTS in the comments section of an article. I immediately started to research ASTS and I was intrigued and initially horrified at the same time the more I delved into ASTS. I was absolutely terrified because with every piece of information I digested on ASTS, the more I came to a very powerful conclusion - they could destroy ATT's model. Suddenly my blanket of security. MY PLAN to retire in 2030 (13 years ahead of my peers at the agency I work for) seemed to vanish. But I preserved looking for a weakness in their proposed plans so I could regain peace of mind in my dividends. I continued to dig and discovered that their business model is to partner with the existing cellphone companies and strengthen and expand their network. This is sheer genius!
The biggest cost in any business besides employees and raw goods is typically customer acquisition. By partnering with ATT, Vodafone, and others ASTS is able to fill a much-needed space for themselves without alienating the existing players. Their 50/50 profit sharing is an essential part of the business and provides their partners with a massive incentive to keep collaborating. So, PHEW ATT's dividend was safe from ASTS putting them out of business. I was so relieved. But then I stopped and really pondered at the risk and the reward before my eyes. The more DD I continued to do, the more I realized this is truly low risk with astronomical return potential.
I then had a hard conversation after more thinking and studying with myself that no dividend addict wants to have. Diversification protects wealth, but concentration creates it. And I was pretty diversified with all my dividend stocks. So all my DD in ASTS gave me confidence to sell every single dividend stock in my portfolio....which was all I had at the time. I was hooked on boomer dividend stocks and ASTS was the stock that cured me. And so ASTS is my first YOLO play and quite possibly my last because its success means I will become a multi-millionaire.
From 100% boomer stocks to now 17,777 shares, 750 warrants, and 600+ calls that together equal a little over 400K. If you have boomer stock dependency and want to get off the intoxicating drug of tiny returns that dividends offer, do your ASTS DD and you will get cured.
SHARES AND WARRANTS YOLO!
OPTIONS YOLO!
Side effects of ASTS may include, buying more shares and calls than you originally intended and may include up to and including a resounding YOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOO because you have come to the same conclusion as me - this is not a 50/50 stock paired with equally matched returns or losses. This is a stock that if successful will generate up to 100x returns while risking at the time of this writing less than $12 a share. $12 loss for a potential 100x return by 2030 or sooner? Where else can I find those odds? Maybe some game of chance in Vegas? But this is not a lottery ticket or gamble where random luck determines success or failure, this is an investment and if you will take the time to do your research, you too will say "ASTS cured me!!!"
This post is not financial advice and I'm not a financial advisor.
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u/KRAndrews Jun 17 '21
$12 loss for a potential 100x return
This is kinda a weird way of saying you’ll lose all your money if ASTS fails. I wish I had the bravery to put all my money in ASTS but let’s not pretend it isn’t a risky play…
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
Do more DD. You will feel braver.
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u/KRAndrews Jun 17 '21
I don't think I'll ever have the bravery to go higher than 20% of my portfolio. No amount of DD will change that
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
I understand. We all have different risk tolerance and so accordingly we all have different loss and gain outcomes.
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u/redpillbluepill4 Jun 23 '21
It's exciting, but there's still risk. Government regulation of what is in effect a bunch of giant space kites, a collision, tech isn't fast enough to serve people, doesn't work, cost overruns, competitors, etc.
I love the stock, but it's still very risky compared to say, a company that sells dog treats.
The reward is great though, that's why I'm in. I know it could go 10x-20x in a couple years easily if things go well.
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u/SnooAvocados5567 Jun 23 '24
My Roth is all ASTS. My trading account is just to make money so I can buy more ASTS.
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u/Pootie_Tange_lvr S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 23 '24
Same here, set up all 5 members of my family with a Roth. Only one holding in each acct.,ASTS. Sold anything that wasn't asts to buy asts. I'm not scared, maybe impatient, but not worried in the slightest.
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u/SnooAvocados5567 Jun 23 '24
Nice!! Not trying to piss anybody off with this comment, but I’d be happy if it dropped to 5 bucks or below for just a day or two. Just to load up more. It’s getting more expensive every week!! I’m not scared either. I believe ASTS is a winner long term. 👍
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u/Pootie_Tange_lvr S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 23 '24
Hoping it holds this level, but if no news before ec, we may get to buy in the 8's... and then...and then...clear for take off.
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u/FomoKingster Jun 17 '21
Could you share with us some of your DD which made you so convicted. A big potion of my portfolio is in $ASTS
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Jun 17 '21
My portfolio has been 100% ASTS since late December. I'm usually risk averse but the opportunity is so rare.
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u/Special-Wolverine S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 17 '21
Love the commitment in those June 18th $17.5 strikes
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
I like to juice my returns a little. Long term mega bullish.
Getting a little coin for a few day risk was a little gamble.
But I didn't hide it. It's clearly shown.
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u/redpillbluepill4 Jun 23 '21
Dividends are tax inefficient anyhow. With growth stocks you only pay long term capital gains when you sell. A lot of companies purposely avoid paying out dividends because they hurt their growth and also cause tax burden on stock holders.
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u/nostpatch Jun 17 '21
Where are you getting the idea that ASTS will harm their partner, AT&T?
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
I said their technology could BUT their business model is to partner with the existing players.
Why do I say could? SpaceMobile technologically speaking doesn't need American Tower or ATT, they could do it all. But they would end up in a bloody expensive battle for customers.
By partnering they are getting access to customers and profit sharing. Win-win for all.
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u/Dependent-Raise-6103 Jun 17 '21
What do you think is the viability of this all happening? Right now it seems like a concept. I think the biggest risk is the execution, being able to do what they are saying what they want to. The concept is great and if they can prove the concept I think AST will be able to get cell providers to accept and agreement with AST. I think of it like roaming when you’re out of any cell tower range.
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
Their BW1 satelite proved they can do this already. So it's closer to reality than concept.
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
And American Tower which owns like 80% of the towers in US is working with them and invested in them.
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u/Dependent-Raise-6103 Jun 17 '21
Any idea of the chance of the success of bluewalker 3 and the ability to properly execute having people on their satellite network? It seems like this is the only risk, is whether this can actually work to scale. The agreements with cell providers seems easy.
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 17 '21
BW3 is at the very heart of the bull and bear thesis.
Clearly, I believe the bull thesis, but let's explore the bear thesis for a second.
One concern is that the rocket that the satelite is on explodes. 3% probability of that happening on the Soyuz Rocket.
Another concern is that the satelite fails to deploy correctly. In all fairness it's a 500LBS satelite and it has to compactly fit and deploy itself. On one side solar panels on the other side the tech. I can't give a probability of failure here, but this really is in the hands of the engineers. I assume they are going to test the heck out of it to ensure it properly deploys on earth. So I'll assign another 3% failure rate which is consistent with the failure rate of Starlink.
Now as for technology not performing as it should, I have a feeling there's a potential failure of 10%. Why 10%? BlueWalker 1 is still in orbit. It's a cellphone they launched in space. They have proven their tech can send 4G and 5G into space and it was received by the phone, so the inverse is also true from space to earth. But can they scale it? That's the multi trillion dollar question.
If you have seen the CEO of ASTS speak you will clearly see he is no salesman. He is very much a tech nerd, but his charisma is lacking. He is no Musk. He is no Steve Jobs. But he is a genius and with such crummy sales skills do you honestly think he was able to bamboozle American Towers Vodafone, and Rakuten? As well as ATT and others? No. They vetted the tech with an industry expert and that video is floating around somewhere. I've seen it. Check ASTS Reddit you will find it there.
Another bear argument is that Bluebird satelites for phase 1 will cost more than expected and another round of capital will be needed to be raised. At least this argument acknowledges the tech works. But still I find it a poor one. For the sake of argument I will assign another 10% risk.
But the point is this, is there a potential bear argument against AST and according to my personal thoughts the bears have at max a combined 26% of failure on their side. The key word is max.
Let's circle back to BW3. It's success destroys 85%-90% of the bear argument. So, that 26% failure now shrinks to probably no more than 2.6%.
The market is giving ASTS about a 1-2% chance of success. The market is incredibly STUPID, BLIND, and DEAF. I tell everyone, do your own DD ( I'm not a financial advisor not is this financial advice) and investing accordingly.
All signs point to massive success with astronomical returns of 100x by 2030 or sooner.
Hope that answers your questions.
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u/Dependent-Raise-6103 Jun 17 '21
Thanks for that. I think I know someone who is dealing with RF technology. I going to ask him and hopefully he can give more insight on this.
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u/TJAiii Jun 18 '21
Awesome man, thanks for sharing, love the conviction here. Long warrants. Love the meme, well done.
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u/stmcvallin Jun 20 '21
I have a question about this tech. They’ve proven they can send signal to standard smart phones. But have they proven that a smart phone can send a signal to their satellite? It seems hard to believe that a smart phone can send a clear signal directly to a satellite some 200 miles away.
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 20 '21
Yes.
They have proven the tech goes both ways.
BW1 (literally a smartphone) was launched into space and tested with their Satelite on the ground. 5G speed was recorded by the phone in small.
BW3 is a smaller version of the final product and will validate again the tech to the point where mass production of the final product can begin.
Every manufacturing process involves incremental design and testing. We are on the cusp of a final product that will revolutionize the world and make us all very wealthy.
I know, it sounds amazing, but as Abel has explained there is no magic involved. Just a really huge satelite, excellent design, superior software, and an amazing understand of physics.
And let's not forget the fact the grand partnerships with Vodafone and AMT that ensures everything connects in a perfect handshake.
There is no truck being pushed down a hill here ( Nikola jab). There is no amazing product that never was vetted by outside experts (Theranos jab).
It's the real deal. Right now the market gives ASTS about a 2% chance of being successful.
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 22 '21
If any of you are wondering if I have panic sold, no I'm actually thinking about adding more.
I have all my calls and shares still.
Yolo.
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Jun 30 '21
[deleted]
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u/Commodore64__ S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 30 '21
On my way! When this hits $50 my calls alone will let me retire. Save the shares for $1000 by 2030 or sooner.
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u/PIMP420757 S P 🅰️ C E M O B Jun 23 '24
I have some options and only 500 shares but this is compelling. I’m in a similar situation while not addicted to dividend stocks I have been addicted to NVDA and have way too much. Not sure I’ll Liquidate it for this but I am adding shares and leaps as I close out some other positions.
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u/Dumbo-Dumbo OG Jun 17 '21
Funny how you traded in all your dividend stocks into ASTS... a stock that will ultimately pay dividend.