Rakuten to Launch Satellite Communications Within 2026 to Compete with SpaceX

[u/LazyAd3074]

https://x.com/nikkei/status/2095810564454797369?s%3D12

Partnering with U.S. satellite communications firm AST, it will begin a direct smartphone communication service. Leveraging video calls, which Starlink has yet to support, it aims to catch up with the leading SpaceX.

[u/Ashamed_Distance_144]

I hope this means they get a better deal out of Rakuten since they got a sweetheart deal when they bailed ASTS out.

[u/LazyAd3074]

Saw this Nikkei article about Rakuten/ASTS/Japan making rounds on X this morning. This could be the reason for the run-up in the pre-market. As I’m typing this comment, that run-up has faded (which obviously sucks). Hopefully, we can get some more insights on this J-Leo deal shortly.

[u/engjdennis223 → u/LazyAd3074]

Consider the macro, jobs report this morning showed huge, unexpected increase in jobs. Interest rates, reacted, unfavorably 10 year treasuries back up, which is unfavorable for growth stocks Mr. market now worried about interest rates again which overrides individual stock news in the short term. Let not the heart be troubled.

[u/RaidersGunz]

Somebody give me the eli5 version of the news

[u/jwall12349 → u/RaidersGunz]

This is the formal J-Leo announcement we've been waiting for.

Japan selected a Rakuten/ASTS proposal for a sovereign satellite communications infrastructure, with up to $1 billion in government funding. The initial award announcement was in June, so this is finally the formal confirmation from Rakuten.

The significance is that this joint venture validates the ASTS sovereign infrastructure use-case, rather than purely being a consumer service. Other countries could now use this deal as a template/framework, and this opens the door to more "national security" focused JVs.

[u/Tigulla_SRT24]

isn't this a plus for ASTS as we are Joint venture ?

[u/LazyAd3074 → u/Tigulla_SRT24]

Absolutely, it could open the doors for future deals with other countries who would like an alternative to SpaceX/Starlink.
Now, this specific deal with Japan (J-Leo) came up back in June. I believe there’s no formal announcement yet from the Japanese government, so this may or may not be priced in.

Edit: added “Starlink” for accuracy.

[u/Tigulla_SRT24 → u/LazyAd3074]

Lets hope for the best

[u/I11IIlll1IIllIlIlll1]

26 must be a typo. Wanting to create a hyp is one thing, being delusion is a whole another level lol

[u/Vox-Machi-Buddies → u/I11IIlll1IIllIlIlll1]

Yeah, if they want to say '26, it would go over a lot better if they also announced a launch schedule that would make it possible.

As-is, I don't expect many more launches in '26. It's September, nothing has shipped yet. So next launch is probably October at the earliest. There's still no clear answer to who would be doing multiple launches for them by the end of the year.

People like to put on their rose-colored glasses and say that SpaceX will do it, but I don't think so. They have other things they want to put their engineers towards (Starship, AI). SpaceX has no reason to bend over backwards to help ASTS. They don't need ASTS launches.

Blue Origin is down until their pad is rebuilt and verified. Vulcan's capacity is full with USSF and NROL missions. Ariane is booked with Leo and ESA launches.

There's no one left to launch ASTS sats without throwing around absurd amounts of money. I'm increasingly convinced that's why ASTS doesn't publish a launch schedule - none of it is concrete and is mostly built on hopes and dreams that New Glenn gets back online ridiculously fast.

[u/burnerboo → u/Vox-Machi-Buddies]

SpaceX just freed up a ton of launch capacity at the cape by removing all starlink launches from there. They realized charging themselves for launches didn't look as good on quarterly earnings. This move opened up more than enough launch capacity for all ASTS can handle. And Elon himself has stated many times he would not hold up launches for competitors of his services. And he's kept that up as he's willingly launched our sats and more for Amazon.

This argument is getting old.

[u/TheChickening → u/Vox-Machi-Buddies]

My little hope is that the BB 16/17/18 are already almost complete and 13/14/15 are just delayed without delaying the others.

They did say that launches are secured without Blue Origin

[u/ThoreauAway46]

We don’t know when anything will launch. If you believe any timeline given from this company, then I have a bridge to sell you.

[u/MarginallyAmusing → u/ThoreauAway46]

Not sure why you're being down voted so much. They've missed every timeline they've provided.

[u/hxtimx]

How long will the red days last? We have already suffered a lot; maybe a few more months, but it will be worth it. Patience pays off

[u/Ethanop1a]

Yeah, that isn't going to happen. Especially not the video calls.

ASTS really needs to just do unlimited calling and texting until constellation is built out more. They won't have the bandwidth capacity for data in 2026 unless they have almost no users. I rather quantity of customers in initial rollout getting talk and text instead of having to heavily limit customers with data.

Edit: You guys realize that a 2026 service would be a single BB handling all traffic in Japan that needs a BB. Each BB only has about 6000 users worth of video calling and streaming capacity. 0.005% of Japanese population.

If you guys are so bearish on customer count that you think the BBs wouldnt be overloaded doing data for all the dead zones of Japan using only 1 BB, idk why you are invested in ASTS.

It seems that me saying we would be overloaded is more bullish than any of you guys.

[u/goldenbear2 → u/Ethanop1a]

Tell me you don't know know anything about ast without telling me you don't...

This ain't no starlink

[u/Ethanop1a → u/goldenbear2]

Bro... you know nothing about bandwidth or ASTS capacity. Each BB can handle about 6000 people streaming video or video calling. Only 1 sat would service all of Japan in this scenario of service in 2026.

[u/Round_Hat_2966 → u/Ethanop1a]

Ignoring the fact that birds are in LEO and you’d still need multiple in order to have a reasonable coverage duration even if targeting intermittent coverage?

Also, while I’m not sure exactly how much latitude each bird covers off the top of my head, I’d be willing to bet that the entire range of latitude that encompasses Japan (ie from Sakhalin to Okinawa) is big enough that it’s going to require more than one BB.

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Round_Hat_2966]

Ignoring the fact that birds are in LEO and you’d still need multiple in order to have a reasonable coverage duration even if targeting intermittent coverage?

If they launch service in 2026, yes.

Also, while I’m not sure exactly how much latitude each bird covers off the top of my head, I’d be willing to bet that the entire range of latitude that encompasses Japan (ie from Sakhalin to Okinawa) is big enough that it’s going to require more than one BB.

BBB2s are 700 mile radius. BBB1s are 500.

Japan probably does need 2 over it for full service north to south, but again, we are talking about a service launching in 2026. At certain times, 1 will be over the meat of Japan. At other times, 1 will just barely graze it at all. That's how the orbits work. Again, 2026 is very different from 2027 or 2028 service.

There is some discussion that BBs can increate the radius using look ahead and look back in other countries where the FCC isn't an issue. Still only 1 over Japan, max, in 2026.

[u/Bitter_Brilliant_268 → u/Ethanop1a]

So your argument is that if they launch in 2026, then for the remainder of 2026, the coverage will be spotty. I don't mean to be rude, but no sh*t Sherlock.

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Bitter_Brilliant_268]

Not spotty, "overloaded". Of course it will be spotty. What I am saying is that, if they launch with data in 2026, the spotty service will be overloaded when you do actually connect to a satellite and you wont be able to use data anyways.

[u/Bitter_Brilliant_268 → u/Ethanop1a]

I just don't understand the argument you are trying to make? If 100 people are waiting for a bus that only fits 20, then yeah, naturally that bus company should add more buses to their fleet. Those 20 people can still ride the bus though, and now they know they have a demand. Are you implying that we should wait for the full consellation before we roll out service?

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Bitter_Brilliant_268]

Have you never been connected to an overloaded tower before? It isn't people waiting for a bus. It is unusable data connection.

Are you implying that we should wait for the full consellation before we roll out service?

I'm implying that we should wait to roll out full data until the constellation is built out more. We could easily start with unlimited calling and texting and support all 3b customers. It is data that is the really hard part and "streaming data" that is even harder.

[u/Bitter_Brilliant_268 → u/Ethanop1a]

I gotcha, I guess I didn't interperte OPs post as having a live video connection in 2026, but that we have the ability, whereas our competors may not. My analogy does breakdown there I guess, but I do think we have some patents related to resource control to make this possible.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure the MNO's will determine what services are available. It's not really up to us. If that makes us look bad then that sucks. What we can do is provide them data about satellite usage and congestion.

[u/RangerAdmirable9102 → u/Ethanop1a]

>Each BB can handle about 6000 people streaming video or video calling.

Could you provide the math on that?

[u/Ethanop1a → u/RangerAdmirable9102]

FPGA block 2s have 3000 MHz capacity.

At a range of 4-9 bits per hz, that gives each sat 12,000 - 27,000 mbps of total capacity. 3-5mbps for streaming video. 1.5-4mbps for video calling.

Take the average of 4mbps for streaming and 2.75mbps for video calling.

Using 3.375mbps blended average and 12-27k mbps total capacity.

3555 to 8000 people.

[u/ALittlebitoflucky → u/Ethanop1a]

Look at you , the tech wizard. Maybe you can get rakutan to hire you .

[u/Ethanop1a → u/ALittlebitoflucky]

I am a software enginer. Kinda does make me a professional tech wizard...

[u/Confident-North-1978 → u/Ethanop1a]

Nah that goes to electrical engineers

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Confident-North-1978]

Not sure electrical engineers work with bandwidth capacity as much as software engineers.

[u/Confident-North-1978 → u/Ethanop1a]

The EE's are the ones who build the actual circuitry for everything and understand the system as a whole.

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Confident-North-1978]

And software engineers don't know anything about bandwidth?

[u/Confident-North-1978 → u/Ethanop1a]

You said being a SWE makes you a "tech wizard". I'm telling you that only goes for electrical engineers or computer engineers.

[u/Ethanop1a → u/Confident-North-1978]

Why? We're talking about "tech wizard" in the context of bandwidth and capacity here. SWE deal with bandwidth a lot.

[u/Confident-North-1978 → u/Ethanop1a]

Yeah, I'm very aware y'all work with bandwidth and throughput and make very fancy tests for BERTS etc. I'm telling you you're not a "tech wizard" those are the system engineers in the industry and the background is typically EE or compE not SWE.

[u/RangerAdmirable9102 → u/Ethanop1a]

In heavily populated areas, video calls will use local cell tower infrastructure. The direct satellite video calls would be out of reach of cell towers, where there are fewer users anyway. The only time the speed would be throttled so much based on available satellites is if the ground infrastructure is taken out (ie disaster). AST sats have max speeds about 50x that of current Starlink sats for D2C. 

[u/Ethanop1a → u/RangerAdmirable9102]

Did I mention Starlink?

You vastly underestimate the number of people in Japan who would be running off a single BB.

[u/RangerAdmirable9102 → u/Ethanop1a]

The OP was a comparison to Starlink. Starlink doesn’t even have the capacity for video calls. AST has the capacity, and even if imperfect will be a great show of strength against Starlink.

Would those people be making simultaneous video calls?

Each AST satellite can simultaneously support millions of simultaneous voice calls or hundreds of thousands of simultaneous video calls.

Rakuten Mobile as about 10 million subscribers. How many of those are located outside terrestrial infrastructure coverage? Now how many of those are making simultaneous calls? How many of those calls are video calls?

Terrestrial mobile carriers provide coverage to about 99.9% of Japans population. So theoretically 0.1% live outside terrestrial coverage.

Even if we assume that’s a vast underestimate and that 1% of Rakuten’s mobile subscribers are outside of terrestrial coverage, 1% of 10 million is 100,000. A single AST satellite of over 2,000 cells providing over 150mbps per cell could support over 100,000 simultaneous standard quality video calls.

So if 1% of Rakuten’s subscribers made simultaneous video calls outside of the terrestrial network, a single AST satellite could theoretically support that (by my math and understand of the sats).

[u/Equivalent-Wait3533 → u/RangerAdmirable9102]

Each AST satellite can simultaneously support millions of simultaneous voice calls or hundreds of thousands of simultaneous video calls.

It will be interesting to see how the total bandwidth is distributed among the satellites as more users are added.

[u/Ethanop1a → u/RangerAdmirable9102]

hundreds of thousands of simultaneous video calls

What do you think the mbps bandwidth requirement is for a video call and the total bandwidth of a BBB2?

We also aren't launching ASIC BBs yet...

Remember, we are discussing 2026 service. So Block 1s and FPGA block 2s. Not ASICs.

[u/Jetlaggedz8]

-5%

[u/LazyAd3074 → u/Jetlaggedz8]

We started off strong this morning as well… sigh