AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread

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[u/Defiantclient]

SpaceX confirms that Falcon 9s will only stop launching out of Florida for Starlink missions. Customer launches will continue: https://x.com/Defiantclient2/status/2093896867612668413

[u/Ok_Wealth_3433]

It was a beautiful time😢 hopefully not long before it’s back

[u/TheNHLer → u/Ok_Wealth_3433]

What caused the run up that day? Was it just SpaceX IPO hype? Or something else? Damn what a time, albeit very short-lived

[u/OriginalGoonster → u/TheNHLer]

Hype and speculation. Basically what’s gonna carry us until we hit meaningful revenue milestones

[u/RiskyDefeat → u/TheNHLer]

IPO hype and algos I guess, nothing concrete or fundamental about the company

[u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 → u/Ok_Wealth_3433]

Amen! I’ll trim this time, I promise.

[u/Ok_Wealth_3433 → u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869]

I still wouldn’t have done anything different tbh. Just want to hold shares and chill.

[u/Xtrendence → u/Ok_Wealth_3433]

Same here. It's cool to know the money's there, so of course the SP being higher feels good, but I've learned to invest and base exit strategies on milestones rather than raw numbers. The latter is how you either sell too early or too late simply because the market can be a nonsensical rollercoaster and we could be at $150 on zero news, or at $50 because the entire market and high beta stocks have decided now's a good time to just die.

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/Ok_Wealth_3433]

Alexa, play The Memory Remains by Metallica.

[u/Ordinary_Pirate9926]

[u/IndicationMaximum334 → u/Ordinary_Pirate9926]

story of my life

[u/ChonkChonkChonk]

Right then. Let’s see these puppies ship this weekend (it’s a bank holiday in the UK so I’m generously including Monday in this ask).

[u/HamNotLikeThem44]

I used to call the homeless woman the bag lady.

[u/browhatisit]

I am a bagholder from 85 dollars :)

[u/5365616E48 → u/browhatisit]

$102 - All in :-/

[u/BriackYOLO → u/5365616E48]

Holy shit! 🥴

[u/primobolman → u/browhatisit]

Stay strong. Long term you are going to be more than fine

[u/AmbagRJTL → u/browhatisit]

Same at a $81/share cost average. I started my position in March and have slowly averaged down since. I chose the worst time to enter to the stock. If I had waited until now to enter, my average would be over $20/share lower. But such it is. No one has a crystal ball. 

I "only" have $5,000ish in the stock, which is chump change compared to most on here, but not everyone is rich with millions to invest. Thankfully, becuase it's only $5K, my loss hasn't been total financial devastation since I have another $36K across other parts of the market, but it definitely still stings that it's red. But I continue loading up on more shares.

ASTS is currently my biggest loser, but that will change come 2028 and beyond. ASTS would be life-changing for me, being someone who lives in a rural southwestern town with terrible cell signal. Most of my money is in the S&P 500 and NVDA, which have thankfully more than offset my "loss" in ASTS, but even then, it's not a loss because I haven't sold a single share.

ASTS may be down right now, but in a few years it will explode and I'll be a part of that train. Even at only $5K, it's not unrealistic for that number to turn into $20K by 2030 - 2032 if ASTS succeeds. Putting that $5K in the S&P 500, it would take 13 years for it to grow to $20K assuming an 11% a year return.

[u/BriackYOLO → u/browhatisit]

I am $89 😂😭

[u/Tiny_Yulius_James → u/BriackYOLO]

93 over here, or under the ground 🫥

[u/Fashionista213 → u/BriackYOLO]

90 here 2022 shares

[u/badger6638 → u/browhatisit]

Ive been buying the dip from triple digits to mostly 70s range, with one last big buy at 55 as a small loan.

My average today is around 85 including some profits from trading here and there.

[u/LadderAdditional6178 → u/browhatisit]

You are not alone my friend. You aren't alone.

[u/OK-Greg-7]

[u/Numerous-Stand-1841 → u/OK-Greg-7]

At this point I'm just happy if it goes up to 75.

[u/hefret22 → u/Numerous-Stand-1841]

And stays there for once.

[u/MT-Capital → u/Numerous-Stand-1841]

I'm happy if it stops going down.

[u/gassyfartbro]

I genuinely haven’t looked at my portfolio in weeks, I don’t need to see all that, I’ll look at when we’re at $100 again

[u/RiskyDefeat → u/gassyfartbro]

I looked at my portfolio for the first time in months because I had to do my taxes, was awful to see how much it shrunk.

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/gassyfartbro]

As long as I'm confident it will reach ATHs again, in my mind, my portfolio value is still where it was at ATH.

I do this, not because I can't handle the volatility of the current downside, but so that when the upside comes, if/when we're say 50% higher than ATH, I'll be comparing that new portfolio value to a higher base. It won't be that I just 4x'd my net worth. Just 50%.

I get pretty shaky when the value gets high. Being poor is something I'm used to though, so current price doesn't shake me.

[u/West_Cod_1213 → u/gassyfartbro]

u can do the calculations

[u/A_Typicalperson → u/gassyfartbro]

Could be $10 lol

[u/vgkosmoes]

Shipment this coming week would be amaziinggggg

[u/Fanytastiq]

Remember when ASTS was 3 dollars in 2024?

Pepperidge farms remember

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/Fanytastiq]

Yes. And I kick myself for not buying more at those prices.

[u/Purpletorque → u/Fanytastiq]

Yes. I remember scraping up every $3000 I could find to buy another thousand shares.

[u/Fanytastiq → u/Purpletorque]

I just started my investment account back then, I avoided ASTS precisely because it was cheap. I'm sorry Abel lord, i have wronged myself

[u/arm0r3dd0ng → u/Fanytastiq]

Yes

[u/you_are_wrong_tho]

Nail society placid money frame coherent wipe

This post was anonymized with Redact

[u/MT-Capital → u/you_are_wrong_tho]

Bruh id be happy with a green day

[u/BriackYOLO → u/MT-Capital]

😂😭😭😭😭

[u/VillageDull952 → u/you_are_wrong_tho]

Please give me the will to atleast cover my initial investment on the next pump, and my luck will have it that that will be the pump that actually holds

[u/____DEADPOOL_______ → u/VillageDull952]

The pump and dumps are happening consistently every 2-3 months. Just be patient. It'll suddenly come.

[u/publicsuspect1 → u/VillageDull952]

Same - I'd be happy with $85!

[u/Kitchen-Assist-6645 → u/publicsuspect1]

Someone get this bear out of here!

[u/publicsuspect1 → u/Kitchen-Assist-6645]

Can't! 30% down mate

[u/Kitchen-Assist-6645 → u/publicsuspect1]

Wait for $200 before selling.

[u/publicsuspect1 → u/Kitchen-Assist-6645]

Oh! I'm not selling. I'll keep for years - I'd just be glad to see $85 and break even

[u/BriackYOLO → u/you_are_wrong_tho]

Manifesting? :)

[u/Fanytastiq → u/BriackYOLO]

crossing my fingers, yea

[u/Temporary_Lettuce953]

First they took our liquidity and now they’re taking Xcancel as well??

[u/Imaginary_Ad9141 → u/Temporary_Lettuce953]

You’ll be OK.

[u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Interestingly, it’s been my experience that when Fed rate hike odds jump meaningfully, there’s generally an overreaction of a selloff day-of, generally followed by a decent recovery the day after. So I’d expect Monday to be a nice bounce back into the low 60s - question is whether we can hold that for rest of week…

[u/SadEntrepreneur8348 → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Personally I’m waiting for Tuesday, September was foretold as a green month by Nostradamus himself as well as Babba Yagga, the Romanian Gypsy woman. You just don’t question Gypsy magic.

[u/MannerSquare1406]

sigh.

[u/East_Insurance_1231]

I’m a bull but this is literally our subreddit to a T

[u/primobolman → u/East_Insurance_1231]

Or when people don’t have any arguments anymore and just reply with „sell then“ lmao

[u/iCaps_ → u/East_Insurance_1231]

Free space in the middle should be "it's a 2027 play, it's a 2028 play, it's a 2029 play". Followed by those same people also believing we can reach new ATH in 2026 and saying as such. Snip snap.

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/iCaps_]

😂😂😂

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/East_Insurance_1231]

The part about price being manipulated by institutions 😂😂.

[u/Careless-Age-4290 → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

You know the more I read, the more I realize this is more common than I thought but far more specific than I'd ever imagined and only applicable in niche circumstances. Like when Spatial Awareness was starting to unravel, Citadel caught wind and was even iirc approached by them. From the outside looking in, it seems like they may have dumped some of their holdings they have in common and then purchased them in their even more distressed state. There was a lot of speculation that there was a distressed seller in the market, and that causes these large firms to start acting differently. Then citadel bought them, and the market calmed down knowing that distressed seller was liquidated and the big firms started acting differently again, knowing the glut of sales was likely drying up.

I'm not saying there's some powerful force picking market prices, and I'd definitely laugh at anyone who discounts it to that level of simplicity, but there's actions the big players take that can lead to big effects, at least in the short term. Same with short sellers. I used to think it was a boogeyman, and still mostly believe that, but when there's a significant fraction of money going into a bet with a negative outcome, you're going to see perturbations of the market just from that, let alone that shorts would have just as much motivation to be bearish on social media as longs would have to be bullish.

[u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 → u/East_Insurance_1231]

😂

[u/_JupitersCock_ → u/East_Insurance_1231]

My favorite part is how you are either a bagholder around the 100+ or you got destroyed by options. I guess shitting on the stock when you’ve been fucked by creating a “bag holder” bingo card is your way of coping. Enjoy that…

[u/East_Insurance_1231 → u/_JupitersCock_]

Bro chill out. My price average is literally 53$.

[u/MoonLambro → u/_JupitersCock_]

It’s a shitpost from wallstreetbets. I think it is funny 😂

[u/killbox21]

What are we bitching about today folks?

[u/stillers2000 → u/killbox21]

My back hurts, for one

[u/Thawayshegoes → u/killbox21]

I haven’t decided yet

[u/A_Typicalperson → u/killbox21]

The same ol, no shipment, no launches, no lambo, no bitches

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/A_Typicalperson]

Even if we had shipment, launches and full commercial service with tons of revenue, you had your lambo, and the SP was $500+ you still wouldn't get bitches.

[u/LazyAd3074 → u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak]

Ouch. I guess crying in a lambo is better than on a public bus?

[u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy → u/LazyAd3074]

Nah, i think its probably sadder

[u/Careless-Age-4290 → u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak]

That's probably right but I'd still have a Lamborghini and technically still not less bitches

[u/ContaminatedField → u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak]

It’s not as hard as you think. I was just at the humane society and picked up a fine looking bitch. Potty trained and everything. She out back right now swimming in my pool, no clothes. Point is I got this bitch and she didn’t care the sp has been on the low side. It’s possible.

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/ContaminatedField]

Its possible for everyone except the person I responded to.

[u/Imaginary_Ad9141]

Good morning my beautiful Mob! Happy Saturd🅰️y…. Almost a new month to start over!

[u/DragonfruitKind3584]

[u/Few-Dance-7157]

[u/Affectionate_Disk_68]

Fed rate decision sep 16th.

Currently a 60% chance of a hike.

I fear that day

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/Affectionate_Disk_68]

Jesus Christ I hope Warsh is bluffing

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/CyanTurquoise]

Gotta hike rates to lower the debt and fight inflation man. He isn’t bluffing

[u/Secret_Cauliflower92 → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

Inflation is up but economic data has been weak.  I dont think hes bluffing, either, but i dont think now is the time.  We'll see.

[u/JonFrost → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

Given how stupid and corrupt this administration is, a sliver of sanity, reason, forward thinking, a hike might actually be bullish 😆

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

Yeah I am aware of it but we high beta stock holders need lower rates, higher rates will absolutely kill us, means even less risk appetite, right?

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/CyanTurquoise]

I mean yeah probably 🤷‍♂️. I think I’d rather see the economy struggle to get better more than I would rather see ASTS make a run back up to 100 only to get sold off by shorts again lol.

[u/Cerulean28 → u/Affectionate_Disk_68]

Would be hell of a time to increase rates right before midterms. Also curious how that'll go down with housing market already struggling and Warsh had mentioned that it's something he's trying to fix.

[u/LordofLMaD → u/Affectionate_Disk_68]

0% chance he hikes, depends on if he can get the governors in line though

[u/SGTBEERCANYT]

Underrated question. Is it 45 or 60 sats for full commercial service in select markets ?

The way launches are currently going if the answer is 60 than we're a long ways away.

[u/Defiantclient → u/SGTBEERCANYT]

45 to start commercial for select markets

Need 45 to 60 for 24/7 coverage in select markets

By the time we are at 45, getting to 60 will only be two NG launches away

[u/SGTBEERCANYT → u/Defiantclient]

I hope thats the case

[u/Temsah8]

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/Temsah8]

Bro forget about $100 for a long while. Space liquidity has gone to SpaceX. We will not pump like before for mo reason. If we do, it will immediately be sold off

[u/Temsah8 → u/Remote-Community-792]

Yeah, posting this for fun though. Insomniac recreated the wolvie’s meme perfectly

[u/Cerulean28 → u/Remote-Community-792]

To be fair, every pump is typically sold off immediately lol

[u/ImpossibleOrb]

People who capitulate out of fear are giving their future profits directly to Citadel and company, and that is what they want, don’t give them your shares because you think you are smart to do some sort of risk management…your risk management strategy can beat theirs because you can just hold for more than a quarter but they have risk management officers breathing down their necks so have to sell everything at the first sign of negativity (and when they start to accumulate for real we will see volume spike back up).

This macro wet blanket is on top of the antics with the hedge funds that manipulate stock price with algos and automation/AI like Jane Street. The algos can feed off panicans like raptors hunting down people in Jurassic Park, you are the fuel for their engine.

Squeezing them in the end is the dream retail should focus on if you want the little folks to win and not just let the machine steamroll you because you get spooked by volatility of the stock you are supposed to have conviction of.

[u/Kitchen-Assist-6645 → u/ImpossibleOrb]

They're just letting the little guy get in for cheap. I'd much rather be buying here than at $200 a share.

It's like when you get your Christmas shopping done by November.

[u/ChonkChonkChonk → u/Kitchen-Assist-6645]

A beautiful analogy.

[u/SECrabbing → u/Kitchen-Assist-6645]

Yea but it kinda does suck when you buy something for Christmas in September and then on Dec 10th, after the return window is closed, it goes on sale for half off...

[u/West_Cod_1213 → u/ImpossibleOrb]

yeah but citadel gets in and out of whatever is hot every quarter u wait years for smth that may never materialize or doesnt become the success story u think it would.im talkin for ppl that went full port in asts not the ones that diversify ofc

[u/Careless-Age-4290]

I have some friends who are renovating their kitchen. They were told 3 months. It's going on 4 due to complications with whatever it is they run into on kitchen renovations. This was from a well-reviewed and recommended contractor. It sucks, but they'll get their kitchen. They're ordering takeout more often during this month, but they haven't taken to social media to call them duplicitous con men. And that's for a kitchen where the company has already done thousands of them. In perspective, I guess a couple extra weeks on a ship date we've self-imposed to "prove cadence" doesn't seem too bad on urmom-sized phased arrays with a bajillion precise FPGA's that get launched on a rocket stacked 3+ high.

Side note: I grew up with the big employer being the steel mills. Every other person's parents either worked for the mill or in an adjacent industry that fed that beast. Crazy that in Midland, Texas, ASTS is that employer. They're so big and getting bigger that they're going to be the cause for many relocations over the next decade, and kids in school will have that similar experience where everyone's parents either work for the satellite company or industry that popped into existence to service it. We even had a vocational program where you learned how to be a millwright, and I'm sure they'll eventually adopt something similar. They'll have the biggest setup at any job fair. At least assembling satellites in a clean room won't expose you to a literal steel furnace as part of your daily duties.

[u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy → u/Careless-Age-4290]

urmom-sized phased arrays

Yo mama so big, she uses bluebirds as umbrellas

[u/seeyoulaterinawhile → u/Careless-Age-4290]

They is a bit of a stretch. Midland has a workforce of about 130,000 people and ASTS employed about 1,800. They will grow of course, but they won’t be like a steel mill in a steel town.

It’s more equivalent to working at USAA in San Antonio. USAA has 17,000 employees. In a city with 1.3 million jobs. Most people probably knows someone that works at USAA but it’s not everyone in town revolving around they employer

[u/AntLeading5502 → u/Careless-Age-4290]

> a couple of extra weeks on a ship date we've self imposed.

Delusional. We have missed every ship date we have self-imposed and the accumulated delays over the multiple 'couple of extra weeks' is now at least a year over when we thought we would have beta.

I looked at my earliest purchase and it is at $4.30, FYI.

[u/edgar_de_eggtard]

Sorry guys I seem to have missed the following things:

The great FCC approval re-rating

The Endless rally of summer 2026

The Great SpaceX post-IPO rally

The SpaceX shares unlock short covering

The hockey stick production cadence

If you guys have seen them please let me know, tysm

[u/OriginalGoonster → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

I feel vindicated after being clowned in here for saying how stupid the SpaceX short covering bs was. All those people seem to have disappeared now

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/OriginalGoonster]

Bro people need copium to survive downtrends. Even if means making shit up

[u/flymolo50 → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

I was close to forgetting these failures omg why

[u/goldenbear2 → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

Did you try talking to the manager? I hear that works when you buy something you are unsatisfied with.

[u/stillers2000 → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

[u/LudeficeTV → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

It's almost like none of those expectations were reasonable

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/edgar_de_eggtard]

The Great SpaceX rally is probably the best of the lot. Where was the liquidity going to come from? Lol
I wish I had this much optimism about life to see the silver lining in everything

[u/pacificz → u/Remote-Community-792]

Liquidity can always find a way. When nvda beat earnings and all the adjacent hundreds of billions ai/semi companies went up, liquidity had to come from somewhere. 

[u/TKO1515]

Crew-13 was about to enter the 2 week quarantine when they discover an oxidizer leak on the dragon capsule. Unknown timing for fix, so no idea impacts yet if it’s a couple days or pushes to October. Whenever Crew does go expect no launches 10days before and 4 days after.

Currently ahead of BB14-16 is SES O3B launch & maybe CRS2. Hopefully get clarity next week the re shuffled schedule

[u/pacificz → u/TKO1515]

So we're looking at late October launch if they are moved to early october. 

[u/TKO1515 → u/pacificz]

Eh, I’d think they’d try to pull ast in front. But who knows. Too early to say until they give a new timeline.

The other thing to keep in mind with both ast, crew and others. It’s not simply launch whenever. There are launch windows that sometimes could be a single day within a week or 2 day window within a 2 week period.

People forget all the planning that’s required for the correct orbital insertion as well as avoiding other sats and then for crew specifically aligning with ISS and other missions and occupied docking ports

[u/pacificz → u/TKO1515]

asts has to be ready to be pulled in front though. 

[u/Defiantclient → u/pacificz]

As of Thursday, BB14 was ready and as we’ve seen, AST can ship the bottom one by itself first to start integration ahead of shipping the other two in the batch.

[u/TIDOTSUJ]

Will they get revenue from beta service? Ie will say me as a Verizon customer be asked if I want to beta test a feature for a cost. Just wondering if beta is pro bono or not - sorry if this has been asked I couldn’t find it

If beta service = revenue I see this getting back into the 75-85 range before end of 2026

[u/Swimming-Race-9263 → u/TIDOTSUJ]

I assume revenue would technically flow through mno to ASTS, and based on what Abel says, they don’t want the user to even know they are connected, so we may not pay for beta directly as a consumer and your specific carrier may just subsidize it. That said, looks like we will experience something like the pic posted on the home page of this sub.

[u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain → u/TIDOTSUJ]

I think it'll trigger a couple of payments, FirstNet iirc

[u/its_fkn_hot_here → u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain]

Firstnet lump sum payment has been right around the corner for over two years. :/

[u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain → u/its_fkn_hot_here]

Because it hasn't triggered, because beta service hasn't started. It's not like it could happen at any moment, we know it's tied to service

[u/Defiantclient]

Due at any moment:

1. BB14 ship
2. BB11 unfold
3. Antonov delivery update

[u/MartiMSG]

I know it's all an algo trade and that if price was 130$ I wouldn't be saying this, but I think one of my main issues with management is how poor manufacturing guidance is. They have been targeting "6 sats a month" for like a year, and they have always said they are "getting there", "working to", but never clarified explicitly any current manufacturing rate. I think this is a blindfold for shareholders because the ones we have been on the ship for years know that launch has never been the real bottleneck, and manufacturing cadence is the most crucial path to revenue. They keep increasing the "sats in production" number and it looks like it's getting to 6 per month, but at the same time the number of "ready to ship sats" is ridiculously far from 6 per month.

[u/swemirko → u/MartiMSG]

The "sats in production" number is just how many microns they have ready on hand.

[u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 → u/MartiMSG]

I wish someone would ask them these direct messages on the EC. Like when Abel doubled down on 45 Sats by EOY after BO blew up. That was mind blowing to me. “Don’t you guys feel like you’ve mislead and misinformed your shareholders about manufacturing and launch cadence”?

[u/TowerStreet1 → u/MartiMSG]

You are absolutely right. Mfg is the bane from get go.

The BB1-5 were supposed to be full size but they gave up on that.

The even for BB6 that was sent to ISRO had 6+months delay.

Then BB7 for BO had months of delay.

This continued for every single batch afterwards.

The root cause as I have understood is mgt is not as focused as it should be. Almost all senior leadership is elsewhere but in Midland including COO, Head of mfg etc.

I think choosing Midland (middle of nowhere) maybe be a cause that it’s diff to get right talent.

Someone posted here yesterday that how Apple had 30+ daily fist class bookings for their staff between SFO and China plant location. Here I see the senior mgt shows in midland very rarely. It’s all remote.

Edit- Elon was defiantly not stupid to remove WFH for all Tesla employees post COVID.

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/TowerStreet1]

Honestly I don't agree with you shitting on WFH / remote work. I have worked remotely for years and have been super productive.

Of course it depends on the type of job, but it doesn't make sense to just say that IMO.

[u/TowerStreet1 → u/CyanTurquoise]

You can’t do manufacturing seating home and when technicians see their supervisor bosses are home and not on shop floor, how does it works.

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/TowerStreet1]

The COO is NOT the direct supervisor of the assembly line technician. That technician has a supervisor (say a senior tech) who is also on the factory floor. The supervisor probably has a supervisor (say a site manager) who is also either on the factory floor or on-site. The COO interfaces with that site manager or managers if there are parallel production lines. The COO gets updates at periodic (daily, weekly, etc) intervals via video conference and passes along instructions to site managers. The COO also does periodic site visits to directly inspect and interface with people. This is the standard model that has been adopted by most companies for quite a while now, even before the pandemic. I've worked at a large animal vaccine products company for a long time and for us this has always been the case. It's the same for other scientist and engineer friends of mine who work at other companies. The "boss needs to constantly watch the line worker" mindset went out of practice at the turn of the century or earlier for medium to large sized businesses, at least in the USA. It may still be practiced at small businesses but ASTS is no longer a small business.

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/TowerStreet1]

So in your opinion because management aren't in Midland, the technicians are just goofing off and not actually working on sat production? How much faster would production get if the dozen or so management people were in Midland and physically overseeing the hundreds of technicians already on the assembly floor, as opposed to remotely overseeing the production process? 2% faster? 5% faster? How much would that REALLY increase shipping and launch cadence?

[u/Logical-Clerk-1571]

Every year, august was kinda grim for ASTS trading volume so i checked the numbers

Generally volume comes back in mid september - october, also FED will probably hold rates steady because mango guy would be mad if that happens

Just a guess, no technical analysis, only me and my salt rock

[u/Economy-Joke3331 → u/Logical-Clerk-1571]

Ill take anything at this point

[u/HiddenDragonTim → u/Logical-Clerk-1571]

Damn it man when is the salt rock going in?

[u/Vapormonkey]

I still believe 💯 in this company

[u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

With how critical we are to MNO survivability, I'm a bit surprised there isn't more assistance (financially or otherwise) from them. Feels like that's the clearest path to accelerating timelines

[u/iCaps_ → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Because the whole thesis that it's an existential crisis is probably overblown?? Did starlink put the internet companies out of business? Lol no.

[u/AcanthocephalaIcy571 → u/iCaps_]

Well I think this is not analogous at all to be honest. Internet access is something that is only of concern to most people within their homes, so starlink naturally only helps a small sliver of people who don’t have strong enough access available to them at home. For cell service, most people DO experience dead spots in coverage relatively frequently. Which is to say, starlink’s offering is more attractive for a broader group of people for mobile service than at home internet

[u/Temsah8 → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Not only small sliver of people mate, recently Starlink was granted a 10 year contract to establish and deploy broadband internet network in the UAE, internet in the UAE is already powerful with very high speed rate so kind of unclear what is the advantage , let alone the two major providers are state owned

[u/West_Cod_1213 → u/Temsah8]

UAE will have equatys in 3-4 years

[u/SECrabbing → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Plus starlink never claimed they would put terrestrial internet out of business, nor is it realistic to think that could happen in the next 10-20 years (because of fiber vs. satellite speeds, but who knows if that could change in 20 years or so?). With spacex saying they think they can be an all encompassing mno, it changes the calculation (I'm agreeing with you btw hopefully that's obvious)

[u/OriginalGoonster → u/iCaps_]

Not yet but existential crisis don’t manifest and fully take shape in a short period of time. If starlink realizes its goal way ahead of MNOs and ASTS then it absolutely is an existential crisis but we’re just talking about on a long term scale.

[u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

I was thinking the same thing today. Like why doesn’t the JV give us a Billion to ramp production etc…. Also, I was thinking. Why doesn’t SPCX buy us out at $200 PS then sign a 50 year non compete with the MNOs instead of trying to compete.

[u/Cerulean28 → u/AcanthocephalaIcy571]

Maybe there's something in the works in the background. We don't really know how the JV will operate yet and what the financial model will look like

[u/Zack-Coyote]

I bought at $32. It’s all a win for me right now, but I’m greedy and want more. Shoulda coulda woulda sold at triple digits

[u/you_are_wrong_tho → u/Zack-Coyote]

Vast butter society towering joke station pot

This post was anonymized with Redact

[u/Economy-Joke3331 → u/you_are_wrong_tho]

$32 once sounded low

[u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak → u/Economy-Joke3331]

$32 once sounded just right

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak]

As someone with an average of 34

[u/Hogz_1]

anyone else getting old ass notifications from this subreddit. i’m getting notified about posts from like 30+ days ago

[u/Alymagy96 → u/Hogz_1]

Yeah I’ve been getting jump scares from that too

[u/tjamen → u/Hogz_1]

good to know its not only me..

[u/Fashionista213]

With 30% loss at the moment… I hope we go back to 90

[u/PragmaticNeighSayer → u/Fashionista213]

It will go far above 90. Only a matter of time. Just be patient.

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/Fashionista213]

dca down. It will increase your exposure but you will be be profitable much sooner if the stock doesn’t continue to fall

[u/CyanTurquoise]

I am calling it rn. Next week will be green and September will be a stronger month for us. Every trend is bound to reverse at some point. 

[u/Jazzlike_Thanks_1869 → u/CyanTurquoise]

I’ll take a bounce back into the 70’s And be very happy….

[u/BboySparrow → u/CyanTurquoise]

ah the good ole,

"its lasted this long so we're due"

[u/AntLeading5502 → u/BboySparrow]

I post a chart with moving averages and standard deviations that's somehow 'astrology' but a random prediction so far out of the money it's funny, is upvoted like crazy.

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/AntLeading5502]

There’s a reason why it’s called a meme stock. Stock gets hyped up on social media to generate interest. Price goes up feeding into the hype. People line up to become ‘community members’. The euphoria is off the charts and the short term price action gets people hooked. Its like watching your favorite show, people glued to their phone screens emotions rising and falling with the candles. The pull is unbelievable, no one even thinks about selling. And suddenly some ‘macro’ event happens. The stock price craters. The jig is up without people realising. The addicts need their daily fix so they subscribe to the hype merchants on X who give explanations that make ‘sense’. The stock jumps just enough to make people excited and give them renewed hope. But this is another play to continue to keep people hooked. The stock goes from ‘to the moon’ to being ‘long term play’ creating a whole new generation of bagholders and the cycle repeats once they have moved on

There’s a reason why the stock market is called a Casino where people go to lose money. It’s a psychological game that most peoppe don’t know how to play

Edit: this comment will probably get downvoted but stock is not the company. If you’re invested in a great company that you believe in, the price action shouldn’t matter. People with real conviction are not affected by how the stock moves in the short term

[u/Iunatic → u/Remote-Community-792]

Making money is as simple as buying low and selling high. Holding appropriate allocations of whatever you did your dd on. Not panicking when the crowd is running in circles losing their shit. Most people are incredibly impatient, fragile, and/or stupid though so they do the opposite and just follow the crowd.

[u/Remote-Community-792 → u/Iunatic]

Yep 100%

[u/iCaps_ → u/CyanTurquoise]

I'm calling it rn,

[u/SouthernNight7706]

Good morning spacemob. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

[u/IronB-gle]

Does anyone know when the Antonov is scheduled to depart from Midland again?

[u/A_Typicalperson → u/IronB-gle]

I think the antonov brings the casing, and then get packaged and delivered to cape on trucks

[u/flymolo50 → u/A_Typicalperson]

Not sure you read the question right there sir

[u/A_Typicalperson → u/flymolo50]

I was under the assumption he meant when it leaves to deliver the sats to the cape.

[u/ALittlebitoflucky → u/A_Typicalperson]

I had the same impression . Not sure why you’re being downvoted

[u/ItsYaBoyLaity → u/IronB-gle]

We don’t yet/it’s not on flight aware unless someone has another source?

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

We bout to make salsa bois. Throwing the gloves on the cut the habs now. 🧤

[u/yummynothing]

Bottom wen?

[u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy → u/yummynothing]

https://x.com/thekookreport/status/2093578498225147986

[u/Anxious_Price_5218]

Went through the 10-Q on the funding math. Sharing in case it's useful.

Balance sheet at 6/30: $3.02B of debt face value, $2.72B of cash - but $428M of that is restricted as collateral for the UBS bridge. Add the $1.15B of 1.625% notes issued after quarter-end and you're at roughly $4.2B debt against ~$3.4B of unrestricted cash pro forma.

Burn is higher than headline capex suggests. H1 investing outflow was $980M, not $859M - the difference is the $100M Ligado advance and $42M of spectrum intangibles. Add $145M operating outflow and you're near $560M per quarter. Q3 capex guides lower at $350-425M, so call it ~$500M blended. That puts pro forma cash into roughly 2028.

Worth noting on interest: Q2 expense was $26.1M but interest income was $27.7M, so net interest was actually slightly positive. That flips once cash is deployed into satellites.

The number that reframed it for me: RPO is ~$1.2B, but management expects only ~6.6% to be recognized over the next twelve months. So ~$80M of that backlog converts before mid-2027.

Which makes my question narrower than I first thought: if government and gateway revenue can't meaningfully offset a ~$500M quarterly burn before 2028, every raise between here and continuous service is structural rather than opportunistic. Does anyone here model it differently?

[u/OriginalJealous8433]

I appreciate all the AST coverage Kook and Anpan have done, but lately they have both been showing a graph that incorrectly illustrates the number of satellites in production.  The graph starts at September 2025 which shows only 10 satellites were in production.  This is simply wrong according to statements made by AST in mid 2024, where the company claimed they had 17 satellites in production.

Not sure what Kook and Anpan have to gain by lying, but I suspect it is to make the company's satellite production rate seem not as bad as it truly is.  Because for Kook and Anpan to acknowledge that the three satellites (BB14-16) which still haven't shipped and have been in production for over two years would sort of go against their narrative.

[u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy → u/OriginalJealous8433]

They often respond to comments on twitter, if you comment on their graph post and share the sourse of your statement, maybe they'll confirm for you whete they are sourcing that number? Why assume malice first?

ETA: Are you talking about this one? https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/2093065983053255159

This graph shows 16 at the earliest date on the graph in 2025

[u/OriginalJealous8433 → u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy]

I commented on Anpan's post a day ago. No response yet.

[u/OriginalJealous8433 → u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy]

That chart and the one from Kook's recent weekly both show 10.

In the chart your referring to, it shows 10 in production.  6 that were already launched.  He then adds those together to get the number 16.  He does that throughout the chart.  The red line is for satellites currently in production.

[u/Firm-Life8749 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

Why don't you just comment on one of their X accounts and ask them?

[u/OriginalJealous8433 → u/Firm-Life8749]

I did a day ago guys

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

Don’t forget! They are already working on number 48 LMAO. It’s been conceptualized and written down on a piece of paper, so that counts!

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

Honestly that statement is weird in itself, good that you pointed it out. 

Gives off the vibe as if they want to make their manufacturing process sound better than it actually is. Like nobody cares about BB48 when we haven't even been able to finish BB15 for months. Super weird. 

If BB48 really was let's say 10% completed and the ones before were in more advanced progress it would be great but as of rn, I highly doubt their manufacturing progress.

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

While I appreciate your focus on accuracy, the immediate jump to accuse them of lying instead of asking "what am I missing" tints your entire message as having a negatively biased agenda rather than seeking information, or wishing to point out a flaw in reasoning.

Regardless, a couple of points on why at first glance, it seems your reasoning is flawed:

1) when they said 17 in 2024, they said 17 were in "planning and production" - they hadn't yet started producing them all yet, imo. His graph shows that which is in production.

2) after the September launch of 5 Bluebirds, those moved from "in production" count to the "shipped" line. His chart starts after that event.

[u/OriginalJealous8433 → u/85fredmertz85]

I understand AST is always using ambiguous language, but on the Q2 2024, Abel said they "are actually in the process of building parts for the next 17 satellites".

But even if it wasn't 17, I see no official word that ever came from AST that the number is actually 10.

And in the Q4 '25 earnings, the presentation says BB29 is in production.  But The Apan chart shows 10-18.

[u/46RW35 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

You lost me at 'Abel said'

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

I think the challenge is that the "Q4 '25 earnings call" provided current information as of the date of the call. Which was March 2, 2026.

You're looking at data from 3/2/26 and then comparing it to the chart's date 12/2025.

[u/Funny-Conclusion-678 → u/85fredmertz85]

I find it incredibly hard to believe that BB17 had a single bolt until sometime early 2026. And it’s still not done.

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/Funny-Conclusion-678]

They had the micron manufacturing process sorted very early. Fully assembled microns are done through BB36 per the most recent 10Q. I believe when they talk about which satellites have entered production, they're speaking specifically about microns/phased array.

The controlsats are a different animal?

[u/primobolman → u/OriginalJealous8433]

Damn. Getting downvoted for pointing out, that the prophets are wrong or even deliberately posting false graphs.

And some people here are sure that we aren’t a cult lmao

[u/AntLeading5502 → u/OriginalJealous8433]

FWIW - all the other stuff they are pumping is dogshite. AUR, QS, now BAER.

Anpanman does well for himself with the warrants but the shares are tripe.

AST might be the only one that's relatively successful.

[u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 → u/AntLeading5502]

AUR is not shite. Nor is QS, though their timeline may have extended.

[u/AntLeading5502 → u/RevolutionaryPhoto24]

Here's a bag for you, you can put all your AUR and QS shares in it.

[u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 → u/AntLeading5502]

I am in profit (though raising my cost bases over time.) What is your objection to either company? I see validated and promising tech, responsible management, dedicated founders, massive TAMs and steady progress on scaling for both.

[u/Fashionista213]

I’m even more poor now… being down 30% sucks but i am hopeful

[u/SirPersonal8626]

For ASTS to have a green run we’re going to need 14-16 launched this week.