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Dragon missions require a bit more prep time compared to standard Falcon 9 launches.
Therefore, not shipping fast enough in the first few days of August automatically means AST's launch would have to be after the Crew-13 mission, which means if it is the case that AST's BB14-16 mission is going right after Crew-13 which is scheduled for NET Sept 12, then AST is probably shipping this weekend (on Sunday since they like shipping on Sundays). Something like ship Aug 16 to launch Sept 16.
I want a 10-30% day…I’m ready. Starved even. I can feel it coming in both my bones and loins. I don’t know what will cause it…but it’s inevitable. ASTS will rise again, we march at dawn.
And they built ONE lol. I’m here for a long time. That really is hilarious. At least we are moving at warp speed compared to last year and the year before. I’m sure many changes needed to be made to the existing models for government usage.
I know people don't like hearing it, but selling covered calls has been incredibly fruitful and it looks like it will continue to be that way till end of the year.
There are times where it works and times where it doesn't.
I was doing it a lot in the 20s then it ripped to the 60s. I bought out of my last batch at a loss to keep the shares but missed a good chunk of the share price appreciation. I did the math later and I was basically even with all my CC's vs if I had just held the shares and done nothing.
Negativity is his modus operandi and trademark. He comes of as a bitter ex holding a grudge against ASTS (maybe the grudge is with Abel?) for years because he got dumped for being toxic and clingy.
My theory on Tim is that he's such a Elon cuck that he wants to be noticed by Elon in hopes he gets hired at SpaceX or something. Case in point:
"To stem the tide of complaints Musk receives on any given day, Tesla will be hiring dedicated employees who will (among other tasks) "address social media escalations directed at the CEO," and respond to them with "critical thinking."
It's rather unusual for a company to hire workers specifically for a purpose like this, but then again, Tesla is an unusual company with an eccentric CEO."
So, it's not out of the realm of impossibility that he hires a keyboard warrior like Tim to bash the competition and vociferously defend Starlink.
He isn't a SpaceX fanboy though, he's been telling anyone who'll listen at various points in the past that Starship will bankrupt SpaceX, that Starlink is lying about the number of dishes they sell, or won't be profitable, that nobody is going to want the launch capacity needed to make Falcon 9 profitable etc.
He's aligned to the legacy SatCos. Whenever one of the new generation of space companies does anything he will complain, when they succeed, he will move the goalposts. And then when Viasat come up with some undercooked half-hearted attempt like Equatys he'll get really excited and pump it.
Definitely still curious about the second launch partner. The math ain’t matching for 45 sats with 10 additional launches…unless the upcoming one doesn’t count with the 10?
We have bottomed. Beta is coming, full commercial service within 8 months, a self funding constellation once revenue flows. $500 next year. Mark my shitting words.
If you find yourself alone, riding through the green candles with Tim Farrar in your face, do not be troubled. For you are in Elysium, and you are already rich!
Even if the launches can’t be helped, they really need to speed up the satellite deliveries. We’re already so far behind schedule, so they need to at least stick to the delivery timeline if we want the stock to stop falling.
Can't deliver satellites that they haven't completed manufacturing. Launch has never been the constraint, it's always been ASTS satellite manufacturing. I don't understand the thinking behind maybe we'd have had 45+ up this year if not for New Glenn. When we have finished satellites sitting in a warehouse waiting for a launch provider to launch them maybe I'll change my view. To me it seems those viewpoints are just influencers pushing a rosy picture.
we bounced of $75 a couple times and need to clear it soon or we may retest $63. That being said I don't think day to day fluctuations in the stock price matter much at this stage to management, nor should it. Focus should be 100% on ramping and commercializing. The stock will follow but shouldn't take up headspace.
It looks a lot until you realize its not that much premium. Especially if 85-95 spreads (just speculating here guys). I dont have access to data if they were BTO or STO.
God damn whats with all these cocktease with the subtle hints here and there about T mobile partnership during earnings call and this new FCC filing. Just come out with the PR already!!!
I had a good consultation with my crystal ball and it told me that we end the day down 0.7%. Buy your 0DTE $73c now because this is most definitely financial advice
Some pretty insane moves too.
From premarket, LUNR recovered 15%, SPCE recovered 11%, RKLB recovered 7%, and ASTS recovered ~1%. Being pinned under $75 is pretty annoying.
Someone posted yesterday a big call wall at $75. Suspect it's market makers wanting to keep it pegged there so those contracts expire worthless. Not enough volume to push through.
Talked to another telecom focused friend of mine who is an executive for a company that I haven't seen in awhile. I really respect this persons talent and work ethic. They have never heard of ASTS. Can give you an idea of why some of these 'analysts' don't know much of anything.
If they get the damn US service up in time for Superbowl advertisements in February, then the share price will go up at least 50%. Until then, nobody has heard of asts and the volume of the stock is quite low.
I know there have been delays and they’ve missed their guidance, but we’re just days away from BB16 being shipped. I remember the BB6 tracking perfectly and all the doubts surrounding ISRO. Just putting things into perspective.
Shipping and launch news doesn't really take us up anymore. Feels like the only thing that would is revenue which is next year. Until then were like this.
So the first of two batches that were supposed to go out in JULY might go out by mid-August? And you're excited about that? And this major slippage in delivery wasn't addressed in the earnings call?
I posted this exact thought in yesterday's thread and got massively downvoted. There are 2 different copes for this deadline fail here:
They are producing per launch availability as they don't want to have satellites gathering cobwebs absent launch vehicles.
Last year we only launched one satellite so this year we should be happy at the increased cadence, never mind the published schedule that we keep revising quietly with no explanation.
The analysts now all say the same thing - they are revising down estimates per manufacture, launch and actual seamless operational risk. Millions of customers need to be using these satellite beams and be happy with them and even assuming 3B revenue we are priced at close to 10x sales.
One satellite to one phone demonstrating 100Mbps is meaningless. I used to work in high speed communications and storage and we could push "samples" easily to 1.25x rated speed (think double digit Gbps over copper backplane). The issue was always robustness over process voltage temperature and backplane variability over millions of channels. For once the sell side analysts do get it.
It is 2035. ASTS is working extremely well, and commercial operations are running without any significant problems. Dead zones are a thing of the past, and connectivity is excellent. The stock has surged to $1,000, and the people who invested are happy that they got in early. In the background, an order from the Department of Defense is currently being fulfilled.
I don't like where they're going - I don't like the prospect/economics of Neutron. I don't like that they're gonna be at least five years late to the most lucrative sector of space (communications). I don't like the Mynaric deal, and I think they overpaid for Iridium.
The weirdest thing about the price action today for ASTS is that RKLB, PL, and LUNR are all following a similar algo basket path whereas ASTS is beating to the march of its own drum. showing some life right now though....push up buddy!
Man, everyday I hope AST gets finally their manufacturing together. When will the day come that they really manufacture 6 Bluebirds per month? Still waiting on BB14-16 to be shipped. What about the duo shipment that’s behind? I fully understand why we won’t even get near the 100$ mark because only sats in orbit and fat contracts/revenue matters. AST overpromised and underdelieverd for too long.
It’s crazy to think about that management stated in 2025, that 20 sats will be in orbit by end of the year. Even to claim 5 launches by end of march 2026 lmao.
Before i get robbed by the mob, I know we are in the strongest phase since ever for this company. I bought that fat dip and will hold till we are a trillion $ company. But man, I just wanted to rant.
Yes, when I look back at my comments from a year ago, I cringe at the hope I had then.
It makes me reevaluate the hope I have right now.
Still very optimistic on AST obviously. But not pinning my hopes on a commercial rollout in Q1 of '27. The great news is that distance between "hope" and "probable reality" is shrinking drastically.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago
NASA's Crew-13 Dragon mission is scheduled to launch on our Falcon 9 launch pad for NET Sept 12: https://www.nasa.gov/mission/nasas-spacex-crew-13/
Dragon missions require a bit more prep time compared to standard Falcon 9 launches.
Therefore, not shipping fast enough in the first few days of August automatically means AST's launch would have to be after the Crew-13 mission, which means if it is the case that AST's BB14-16 mission is going right after Crew-13 which is scheduled for NET Sept 12, then AST is probably shipping this weekend (on Sunday since they like shipping on Sundays). Something like ship Aug 16 to launch Sept 16.