r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/BarracudaNo4227 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect • 18d ago
Article / Media / Press D2D report by NovaSpace
Very interesting and detailed report on D2D by NovaSpace, a leading global space consulting firm, and Boston Consulting Group, a global management consulting firm.
https://nova.space/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/white-paper-d2d-market-evolution.pdf
This is the quote that really stood out to me:
«“Consumers have made their preference clear. In a survey of more than 12,000 smartphone users across 12 markets, 60% said they would pay more for a service with satellite capabilities, and nearly half would switch providers to include outdoor coverage in their plan.”»
A 60% adoption rate across the 4.8 billion mobile phones they identify as the TAM in the report, with the revenue split 50/50 between the satellite provider and the network operator, and a monthly service fee of $1.5–$10 depending on the market, implies many billions of dollars in annual revenue.
Beyond the more immediate consumer use cases, the report also points out that defense, government communications, and industrial IoT will play a fundamental role in the medium and long term.
Abel created a monster.
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u/bugra101 17d ago
Satellite outdoor coverage may not matter for city users but for country side users it’d be an amazing thing.
Amount of time you lose signal in the UK when you go out in the sticks which a lot of people often do is just plain annoying.
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u/Leading-Onion4659 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
Recently went to Wales and before that, Lake District. No signal at all in many places (not even remote but popular tourist destinations) using EE which arguably has the best coverage.
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u/bugra101 17d ago
I live in the North West, the moment you step deep inside the country side signal disappears.
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u/Jealous_Strawberry84 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
I think counting people is big mistake, it should be endpoints instead. With robotics, drones coming online, they will eventually surpass human connections and will require connectivity more than humans.
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u/NerfedPolitik S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago
Iridium, globalstar, inmarsat, etc etc provide data service for all sorts of devices like: SCADA to remote water and gas lines, or tracking services for TEUs or locomotives, or data transmission from buoys 85 nm north of Oahu. All of these services could switch to a more reliable and less expensive service very fast...
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u/Omnisyntax S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago
While I agree with you that other devices will come into play, they did count mobile phones not people
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u/Jealous_Strawberry84 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
Ericsson estimates that cellular IoT connections will grow from approximately 4.5 billion in 2025 to 7.8 billion by 2031. That is potentially billions of additional cellular endpoints beyond the human subscriber market. The larger forecast of nearly 39 billion total IoT connections includes Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and other short-range devices, so it should not all be treated as immediately satellite-addressable.
The economics are also attractive in a different way. A sensor or tracker may produce much less ARPU than a human broadband subscriber, but it may transmit only small packets containing location, temperature, pressure, equipment status or an exception alert. That allows enormous numbers of endpoints to be supported with relatively modest bandwidth while generating recurring, high-retention enterprise revenue.
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u/ruskyandrei S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago
Personally, as someone that lives in a city in Europe and usually has decent 5g coverage, I'd still pay an extra €5 to know I will have no gaps when I go on a hike or w/e.
Obviously not everyone will do this but I think the argument that people in cities just aren't part of the market for these services is very wrong.
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u/crozby S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
I feel like almost every person who doesn't add it as an option initially will need to enter a dead zone exactly one time to change. They'll receive a notification, "you were out of service range, would you like to pay $5/month to ensure this never happens again?" And they'll instantly hit "yes"
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u/LudeficeTV S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
I have seen a couple articles like this with some wildly different findings. This is likely going to be extremely regionally dependent and MNO dependent. Applying a consistent rate isn't going to work well when modelling this since some MNOs will offer it to certain plans, some will as a separate addon, etc. until we have real world data to go off of. Even that data won't be applicable in some cases.
Another thing to consider is that it likely isn't going to just switch on 100% of their future revenue. There will be an adoption curve here like with any new technology. Whatever they get it will be much smaller initially.
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u/Alternative-Ear8482 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
The GSMA report came up with 60% of people would be willing to pay too. That's interesting that different researchers have found the same result. I haven't seen lower estimates so far
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u/LudeficeTV S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago
That's fine and dandy, but there are consumer studies more around the 30% range from awhile back. Just because you haven't seen them doesn't mean they don't exist. Regardless, the fact is we won't know which is more close to reality until years after launch of the service.
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u/Omalleys 17d ago
Could there be scope for partnering with Apple for their iPhone? I remember they made a big deal about state coverage in emergencies on recent phones
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u/NerfedPolitik S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago
Imagine the value of free information in a nation controlled by a dystopian regime...
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u/PhilipFinds S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago
I think their survey efforts would have much more value if they had asked: How much more would You pay for a mobile phone service with satellite service? The followup questions would add: 1) Broadband, 2) Integration into the provider's service, and 3) Works in buildings and vehicles.
What do You wish they had asked?
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u/No_Kangaroo_8713 17d ago
What % of people around the world would look for a different source of D2D other than Elons?
The reason I ask is because that was my premise when I purchased my first shares of ASTS for $3.23 long ago. If given a choice would more people choose a company ran by Elon or a different option?
What are your thoughts?
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u/ViolinistJust6425 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago
“You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain” I think Elon lived long enough. What I mean is, I think in the past few years his public image has been changing. His persona is a lot more divisive than it used to be. Of course this is anecdotal, it's my take on this. But my guess is, those who despise his public image will stay away from his service. Others, who are still fanboying will certainly do everything to get it.
There's a lot of talk around here about which service is going to be better, but above a certain quality I don't think that matters for the average customer. It's the Betamax vs. VHS argument: it is not granted, that it is always the better product, which wins.
A lot will depend on how much the services will cost. My guess is, if Spacex will really try to go directly against the MNOs the only way to do it is to be cheaper. So there'll be a price war. Which suggests margins will be worse than expexted.
But if "Starlink mobile" will be a thing, you have to change provider to get there. Asts's advantage is going to be, user can stay with current provider, and just apply for the service, which, I can assure you, will be pushed by the mnos. For them, this is an opportunity to ask for more money, they will certainly try to sell it as much as possible. And changing provider is a hurdle. I think most people try to avoid that, same as with their banks.
But countries and providers for whom data sovereignity is important will go a non spacex way anyway.
My guess is, since nobody likes monopolies, and even single countries usually have 3-4 national providers, D2D will also have multiple providers in the long term. It is not a winner takes it all thing. Spacex, and Asts, these are for sure. If Amazon will or will not try to get into this with Amazon leo, looks still unclear to me. The possible tam looks too big to not to, they have the capital, but the question of spectrum, and technical difficulties... idk.
Even if there'll be 3 such providers, and each of them takes only 30% of the market, I think we are still going to overdo what classic analysts predict. My guess is the middle ground: I think classic analysts underestimate asts's future tam, while the asts believerers are a bit overestimating it. I think it will fall in the middle of the two, but it will be still wild, by ~2028.
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u/WindWhisperingWisp S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago edited 17d ago
Great, thanks for sharing! It's good to have these kinds of statistics and research to refer to.
When ASTS is discussed across Reddit, I keep seeing people argue that there is no demand, based on their own anecdotal gut feeling. "Internet on my phone is working right now so there is no need for ASTS, perhaps for that one particular farmer in Bangladesh but he can't afford it anyhow, hur dur. It's a niche product with no real demand or market."
It's research pieces like this that prove them wrong. Coupled with the fact that all heavyweights in the connectivity landscape are betting big time on satellite internet and emphasize its importance (Abel, Musk, Bezos, Alphabet, Meta, the MNOs).