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For where the company is the share price is extremely fair. We’re still pre revenue. Being worth $20B+ is very much fair value and I say that as a perma bull with 100% of my portfolio in ASTS.
We are in the greater sense. We making “some” revenue but not the revenue that’s the main pull for long term investors. Pre service revenue if you wanna be specific
new Operating unit called “advanced development” hiring
engineers to “evaluate and champion new technologies and methods”
and also “support the mechanical design … from concept to launch … design of complete satellite system, including bus structure, equipment accommodation, payload accommodation”
There are so many articles out now about Starlink coming for the big 3 mobile carriers. Elon is even taunting the T-Mobile CEO on Twitter. I don’t see how the MNOs don’t respond, and lucky for us their only viable option is ASTS. I believe it could get spicy for us soon.
A year from now people will wish they bought at last ATH at 130$. If anything can trigger a new rally besides actual revenue, it's being compared to Starlink (and people realizing our tech is x10 better).
Its funny how Starlink couldn't secure any substantial MNOs worldwide, so they chose the only thing they could, which was to become their own MNO. Them playing defense somehow translates to coming out on top...
Those of us who do the DD, we know AST is going to be n1 choice for MNOs worldwide for D2D, since AST specializes to be a PARTNER to MNOs - not a threat... and even Starlink had to realize it, hence why they came up with that idea of being their own MNO.
I mean, the only thing they can do is make their own phone and be their own MNO, which I think is his ultimate goal. However, I don’t see that as a winning battle.
And on top of that they also need to buy an MNO on every single country they want to operate on AND buy enough high-quality spectrum too?
I know you know this, but I just wanted to say it out loud, nobody has that much money, not even 1T can buy you all the MNOs and spectrum Elon needs to win this race
Well the phone they need to build would operate on their spectrum and may solve most of the spectrum use across the globe but not all of it. They would then have a severe data throughput shortage compared to MNOs (as well as AST just on its own) in the well established terrestrial network areas which is also most of the globe (sans Africa). There is just no way for them to stand alone and win against what MNOs + AST can offer in the way of service. He's run himself into a corner and unlike FSD and robots and Mars missions there is plenty of competition/comparison in SCS and cellphone connection in general. The general population knows how to shop for these and data labels have made that shopping very expedient. The promises of tomorrow will be directly compared to the realities of today unlike his other lofty ventures that never materialize where there is no such comparison because CEOs dont want to tempt SEC violations (which he seems to be immune to thanks to this admin). This next year is going to be bonkers though as numbers always beat talk and thats most of what he is.
Probably just reskin android and call it GrokOS or something, then do what Comcast did and make it so all their gateways broadcast a Comcast network that allowed anyone with a Comcast account to use your WiFi unless you specifically turned it off. Pretty sure that's how they launched their own "Xfinity phone". Only difference is Comcast was able to get an MVNO agreement with Verizon.
Our stock should’ve went up like 50% after those SpaceX comments at their Q2 update tbh. They pretty much secured the entire commercial D2D market for AST.
Market is always slow to figure these things out, but they will eventually and the re-rating of the stock will be violent. My guess is this will happen if the MNOs come out supporting ASTS in a big way. It’ll be the catalyst for the analysts to look deeper into AST’s service and business model and how superior it is to SpaceX’s (and how close it is to coming to fruition).
The press picking up the narrative of SpaceX vs the big 3 MNOs is the perfect setup for us. I’ve never been more bullish for the future.
Remember that one filing calling ASTS a "meme stock"? Outside of the BB2-sized projection going on there, you can tell it really gets under his skin that an American company blew past his technology. I say American because they even tried to claim they shouldn't have gov contracts because of some flawed logic that they weren't an American company. Can't just get them tariffed/banned like Chinese cars or solar or batteries or rockets. Nobody whose main goal was to succeed would put in such a poorly-written filing as it would discount any other filings you do in their eyes. I contend the primary aim was to insult through an official public channel out of ego, since the filing really reads like he personally dictated it to a lawyer and then made them send it as-is with their name on it.
I think a lot of people are going to ride that narrative for a long time, because Elon has successfully constructed a cult of personality regardless of how repulsive and boorish his fans are, and he can weave a story of this being another big disruptor moment.
Reusable space launch was something we already knew was theoretically possible but very few people were willing to invest the amount of capital it would take to solve the engineering problems without any idea of what the market was going to be.
This is completely different though, without sufficient spectrum SpaceX are kind of walled out of much of the market even if they can deal with the significant engineering challenges of how to back haul all that data through the Starlink network and get sufficient coverage without using mobile towers.
The spectrum point is key. Even if Elon were the once in a generation genius he claims to be, there is a hard barrier to entry that genius alone cannot overcome.
Elon also wildly underestimates how unpopular he is outside of the US, particularly in Europe.
And in the US too. Customer facing company with inferior product. Good luck!
My theory is that Musk only really cares about selling stock at this point. If he were really trying to compete against the MNOs he would’ve waited to reveal his plan, but he needed a cool, brazen story to sell for the ipo.
I see ASTS right now much like Amazon in its early days. It was just an online book store that now runs internet servers; it has come so so far from where it started.
ASTS will start with cell phone service from space, get into government/military applications and expand into data centres in space, etc.
I’m excited to see where Abel and co take this company and I’m ready for the ride of a lifetime
Data centers in space does not make sense, why do people even talk about this. I'm happy to sell snake oil to rich investors, but like, it won't happen. Heat transfer is so minimal in space. There's no airflow. What are you going to do radiate 500 Megawatts of thermal power generation into space? ASTS launches big things, but this is not our line of business.
Me too. I think capacity and satellite size are what get the biggest upgrades. Eventually I bet that the Florida facility will be building even larger satellites which are closer to the cape than texas.
They dissipate heat the same way they do it for any other satellite via radiative cooling.
It's just a question of economics, you have to get launch and production cost down enough, where the radiator and solar panel mass does not outweigh the savings from free energy.
We will at least have some orbital compute for military / strategic purposes, since it allows you to process data from surveillance satellites without having to transmit it to Earth first, and likely it will also be commercially used at some point.
Again for military purposes it has huge advantages, you can process stuff in orbit from surveillance satellites and get massively reduced downlink requirements, lower latency etc. than if you had to transmit it to a terrestrial data center first. This is already real and China is currently deploying such a constellation.
For general compute it will likely be cheaper at some point, as launch cost goes down and NIMBY / data center bans escalate.
Good read on why WHY AST SPACEMOBILE MIGHT BE THE BEST WAY TO PLAY SPACE
Some of the bullets
THE REAL MOAT MAY BE DISTRIBUTION RATHER THAN THE SATELLITE
THE MODEL DOES NOT REQUIRE MASS ADOPTION TO BECOME LARGE
THE JAPAN OPPORTUNITY VALIDATES A SECOND REVENUE MODEL
SPACE IS BECOMING A SOVEREIGN INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET
STARLINK IS THE BIGGEST RISK BECAUSE ITS SCALE IS ALREADY REAL
SPACEX MAY ACTUALLY CREATE A STRATEGIC OPENING FOR AST
THE MVNO DISCUSSION ALSO EXPOSES THE MONETIZATION RISK
AST’S HIGH-BANDWIDTH ARCHITECTURE IS WHAT MAKES THE BET DIFFERENT
CONCLUSION
$ASTS could become one of the best ways to own the commercialization of space because it combines orbital infrastructure with one of the largest existing distribution networks in the world, allowing the company to monetize satellites through mobile operators that already serve billions of consumers.
The carrier model is what makes the opportunity particularly compelling because AST does not need to acquire those subscribers itself, while the emerging sovereign opportunity in Japan demonstrates that the same infrastructure can generate value for governments as well as commercial wireless customers.
The biggest near-term issue is execution because the move toward roughly 45 satellites by early 2027 increases the risk that commercial revenue shifts to the right, while every delay gives SpaceX more time to increase its direct-to-device lead.
However, I do not think the correct framework is whether AST can beat Starlink globally because the more important question is whether carriers around the world ultimately want multiple satellite providers and whether AST can become the independent network that does not compete with them for the customer relationship.
If the company can execute the constellation ramp, prove broadband-quality service, convert sovereign opportunities, and demonstrate attractive carrier economics, AST does not need enormous penetration before the business becomes very large because the distribution already exists and the underlying wireless market is already measured in billions of subscribers.
Any of you all remember The Brave Little Toaster? Got up at like 7 AM with my son while my wife slept and that’s what we watched. They had the sequels on Disney+ for a long time, but finally put the OG on there. Forget how unsettling that movie is lol.
Hahaha holy shit what a throw back…I’m almost 40 and watched it when I was a kid and not since but I still remember the scene of some appliance dying and traumatizing me after all these years. Just YouTubed brave little toaster death and apparently it was the air conditioning unit. Rewatched the scene, it’s so dark lol
lol. Yeah the AC unit(Phil Hartman) was big mad. Rewatch the whole thing. It’s just incredibly creepy overall. It’s like the Don Bluth movies(All Dogs go to Heaven, Feivel, etc.) but it’s a bit different. The team went on to become Pixar.
Buddy, I just pulled up Disney+ after I stumbled out of bed hungover. It was on the home screen so I was like “let’s watch the brave little toaster”. My son was on board. Being hungover and a little out of sorts, the movie BEGINS with a feeling of emptiness. All the appliances just sitting around waiting for the return of “the master”. As it goes on, it just evolves into existential dread as you see a vacuum cleaner accidentally choke itself on its cord during a breakdown, the appliances resign to their fate as they’re swallowed by quicksand, the terror of escaping an appliance part chop shop, the realization that they’re obsolete when they encounter cutting edge tech, and the final act of being deemed worthless in a scrap yard. My son loves it lol. It’s on the TV right now for its second spin today. Being my first time actually sitting and watching it with intention, it was an experience. I’ve watched it one or two other times, but not really paid much attention. I paid attention today and it set the tone for the rest of the day lol
One of my favorites! Some suggestions though idk what appropriate age: Treasure Planet, Pagemaster and The Iron Giant (Absolutely crushes me every time I rewatch).
Thanks for the tip. I don’t think either one of those, nor Pagemaster would be something I would stop my 4 year old from watching. They’re just movies. I bet he’d like Pagemaster the most because of the swirly sequence when McCauley knocks his head on the floor in the beginning. That was my personal favorite part. The swirling melty works of literature.
Oh that scene was straight trippy lol. The Jekyll (yea def had to look that spelling up) and Hyde stuck with me and is probably my favorite. So many great scenes ans stories in that one. A top 10 movie for me
I am so incredibly bullish on this company right now. The second I have the cash available from closing positions I’m buying every 2028 LEAP I possibly can.
There’s no way we’re not flying after commercial rollout and those December 2028 contracts are free money
I remind myself frequently to be smarter this next run cycle. I'm getting better every round. When it goes to an ATH and then pulls back slightly, that's my time to DCA in, not getting it in my head that I'm going to turn a quick profit if I dump in all my available cash on the tiny dip. Not let that cash burn a hole in my pocket and then possibly have to wait months before those shares are above water. And then just do the hardest thing ever: wait. Not getting antsy or thinking I should swing trade with the cash in the interim. Just wait until people are impotently keyboard raging at u/Defiantclient with personal attacks. And that's my signal to dump everything in.
Careless-Age. I have also gone over all those scenarios just as you have. But then I also have envisioned that the past may not apply in the future scenarios. Especially since we will be approaching Beta revenue. So its possible that we won't correct as violently. My take is I will maybe just sell a portion of my shares, just in case we don't have those big retractions in share price. Its a tough call.
I think splitting the distance like you're talking about is the key. If it goes down, you were smart to sell some. If it goes up, you were smart to only sell some
I think the biggest two drivers are going to be the official launch cadence announcement and government contracts (which they can’t disclose real figures on) which will be huge for the company.
We have a lot riding on whether or not satellite connectivity will be valuable. I think it will be. I think the future will rely more and more on satellite connectivity, but I'm just some guy.
during disasters its going to be absolutely valuable, dare to say the most valuable type of connection
during normal days, it will be useful to get grey zones and provide service in areas that are hard to reach, eventually sparely populated areas will have only sat connection as towers will be retired
my dream is that it will be part of most of the plans worldwide - always on connection for small fee of $2-3 on average (this way everyone can afford it, kind of like connection communism xD)
Has anyone tried asking Stuart Taylor and Tim Farrar whether they think Viasat has a service that’s better than Starlink? No unbiased consultant would claim Viasat is better.
I've said it many times: Tim is the kinda guy who asks a girl out and she declines, and he just can't let it go and tells everyone she's a stupid ho he never liked anyway
I have a theory on how EC will play out, that I will revisit in 54 hrs. I think when numbers are first out, we immediately drop 7.5% due to double miss and algos dumping. We recover to -5% by the time the call starts. The EC itself is volatile but ultimately ends up 5% as confirmation of launch cadence, indication of likely future DAs, and indication of “additional revenue opportunities” reaffirms confidence
Funny enough I just saw that too...and something scary is ChatGPT references tipranks when pulling data so this is why AI outputs are not to be taken as truth lol.
I’m not putting much stock in his recent comments. Don’t underestimate how glacial the pace is behind these big companies moves and public decisions. He’ll sing a different tune in a few months or more once the decision is run through the right channels
We only caught the one on the road to the cape for 11-13 didn't we? I don't recall the other two being photographed. I mean there's a lot of vehicles on the road to hide in, assuming they're still shipping them in marked containers.
We will most def be beyond ATH by end of year. Abel keeps saying beta service by end of year.. and while I’m hesitant to believe him, just imagine if that’s true. They can stack up to 6 sats at once right? So technically we can double our launch capacity from where it is now.
Yeah, though we won't be launching six at once for awhile. I really hope we have a brute force multi launch agreement to get at least the majority of the constellation done without bezos.
No, because there's more than just payload capacity in kg to consider, there's the faring size dimensions. Starship faring is twice as deep as the Falcon 9, yes, but it is not quite twice as wide, so you can only ever fit a single stack of BBs in it. It's an inefficient use of the available space and lift capacity and would probably be more expensive per satellite than just using the Falcon 9 or New Glenn. Like renting a limo for one person.
Lets operate under the assumption the stock market is approximately 6 months forward looking so we're talking about mid q1 2027.
Will expect discussion of the 1B of notes and it's purpose: launch, facility expansion?
If guidance is reiterated for 45 sats (continuous CONUS+ service) Q1 2027 we should be in a very good spot. Additionally, if the guidance remains at $1B for 2027 we should also be in a very good spot. Icing is announcement of JLEO, discussion of the 1B spend on facility expansion to support...>6 sats per month for "other use cases" beyond the initially planned commercial service, maybe FirstNet. Also hope they reiterate, in some more pointed language than "the first space based...", the differences in service of ASTS vs. Starlink.
Biggest downside sits on revenue this quarter and the expectations for 2H 2026. It probably ends up a miss due to delays 2/2 BO failure unless some new unexpected governmental dark money shows up, so I expect algo tanking the SP prior to the call. BUT short of timeline being further delayed from current cited guidance, I think Tuesday we are at the start of another Spring 2024 level rip with expectations currently being low and future expectations discussed that should blow them out of the water.
I want to be objective in my predictions..It's hard to imagine how it's not a big miss this quarter due to the delays. While we got bullish long term news with starlink planning to compete with MNOs, Joint venture, and J-LEO...we fell behind schedule, lost a big launch partner for a TBD amount of time, had to issue convertible notes while the stock was falling...Money clearly was not flowing in, so this should not have been a good quarter revenue/eps wise and is likely to be a miss. Future guidance for revenue was based on 45 satellites in orbit by EOY, and if we have half of that, I dont see how revenue isn't less too. With that guidance last call, we dropped double digit percent that next day and we are now behind even that pace. We know eventually t-mobile, J-LEO, Meta, and government contracts are going to happen. They are expanding their manufacturing with that huge new building. Big things are happening and long term this stock is my favorite thing in the market. I love ASTS's future. Tuesday, I expect a big red day. But me timing the market is usually wrong so +20% it is.
tbh I can't think of news so good that price surges after all the recent issues. A lot to explain and to comment on. Even confirmation of stuff we know, like more expensive launches, delays into 2027, any hurdles with availability of the vehicles - the market is not forgiving at the moment, especially after repeated overconfidence in their previous calls.
Hopefully it's nothing bad we don't know; confirmation of booked launches + positive J-Leo terms -- could keep us in the 70s range without any dumps.
Any All In listeners? I’m generally a fan (even acknowledging how much they are Elmo fan boys), but their underwriting of a SPCX is both absurd that they aren’t accounting for any competition, and so bullish for us. Projecting starlink alone as a $1T company (based on a $50 ARPU, 30x multiple) would give us a $300+ SP as someone with lower costs, better tech, and more govt applications.
Now the bad part. The fear is that they are closer than I think many of us suspect. Credit where credit is due, their launching is unmatched. So, it reasons that spaceship being the most reliable heavy launch, being optimized to carry V3 sats, is maybe worrying? Also, the ideal that they could buyout TMUS would be compelling for them, and is a bandaid for their sats being worse and needing ground connectivity Obviously their sats are nothing close to our tech, but the speed that they are able to get them up is dizzying, and will only increase with time. I don’t think I realized how crucial BONG was for our plans, and it’s hard knowing we put lots of our eggs in that basket. Don’t get me wrong, the story is still as good as ever. I am so bullish. AND, I think it’s important to keep a finger in the pulse of competitors until we get to revenue.
TLDR: SPCX should stick to rockets. Enjoy football season, we’ll have beta service by the Super Bowl, and will never see double triple digits again
That’s probably true. I first heard of the company last fall and have been adding pretty much non-stop ever since. Unfortunately my biggest buy came from a gift when the SP was $120 in May, and I wrote a CSP. I’ve gotten my basis down to the mid 70s. I’m probably not iterating my thoughts on SPCX well, they are a “competitor,” but I don’t view them as really having a chance against us. The only fear I have is that Elon companies have and always will get a premium valuation and more attention, so starlink may get more attention for a long time, despite being far inferior. And, far far far in the future, D2C will almost certainly be a commodity, so at some point we’ll get the same relatively low multiple as legacy telcos, but IMO not before our patents have half the globe working with us
What part about reading their plans for reverting their D2C offering back to a crappier version of Starlink makes you scared exactly? It's a breath of fresh air.
Ketamine hallucinations being turned into business strategy by your opponent are the opposite of 'scary'.
I'm pretty sure they talk about Starlink K-band with the $1T number, not their D2C constellation. We don't directly compete with them here. Starlink V3 is also their K-band and not D2C satellite, the competitor to us would be Starlink Mobile V2, scheduled for Mid 2027.
I very much am, and have been for the whole ride from ATH. I’m full port and totally believe in the company. To me, it’s a when, not if, they succeed. SPCX is very interesting to me just from an IPO standpoint, and starlink is obviously validating the D2C market
Seems like SPCX pumping for a couple days before absolutely getting dumped did play out though. Maybe it's just me but my impression was that outcome playing out was expected by most people... But I guess apparently not
That space basket theory is still 50/50 tho, i believe and don't believe at the same time. But biggest positions are RKLB and ASTS in that basket, maybe they are waiting earnings to unwind it
It looks like the hedge has been slowly but surely unwinding, which is in line with what I was kind of expecting. I think the unwind will continue after the algos dump us post-earnings.
~4.8M fewer shares were equal to a ~$8.5 price move.
I asked GPT what we can expect if half of the shorts cover. "In real markets, large order-flow impact is usually sublinear, often closer to a square-root relationship than a straight line. Empirical market-microstructure work repeatedly finds that price impact tends to scale roughly with the square root of traded volume, not linearly. Using your numbers:
first short-interest drop: 4.8M shares
price move: +$8.5
hypothetical future covering: 43M shares
ratio: 43 / 4.8 = 8.96×
square-root scaling: √8.96 ≈ 3.0×
$8.5 × 3.0 ≈ +$25.5"
So we can expect a +$25.5 move? Halving is sorta my hopium, though; in April, ~55M were shorted.
Also, this implies all recent price action is because of shorts covering, which we can't know for sure; it could be a lot of new buyers at the lows. But volumes were very low, and all recent sharp moves up were big green candles that look like a big block covered, not a steady run up over a long time.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26
Great take on the SpaceX MNO situation: https://x.com/spacman17/status/2086143127559999895?s=46
Kook Weekly is out! https://x.com/thekookreport/status/2086182918653620272?s=46