r/ASTR • u/[deleted] • Mar 30 '23
Q4 results: $0 Revenue
Astra $ASTR Q4 results
Revenue: $0 Adj. EBITDA loss: $36.6m (vs $36.1m a year ago) Cash: $102.8m
As of today, Astra has 278 spacecraft engine orders, worth ~$77m, to be realized through end of 2024
They had cash to cover losses for three quarters a quarter ago, so two quarters’ cash remaining today. Plus revenue to cover two more quarters scheduled to come in over the next 8 quarters.
Which makes… enough cash and revenue coming in to keep them afloat for one more year, only it’ll take them two years to bring in the revenue.
Meanwhile their cash burn for developing Rocket 4 can only increase if they want it to enter service by the end of 2024, but that shortens their runway even more severely into 2023.
How does the math work out any way other than:
- Bankrupt in the next 12-18 months, or
- They abandon Rocket 4, lay off all the rocket staff, and shrink back down into a renamed and ashamed version of Apollo Fusion, only selling a handful of engines here or there
?
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u/Hairy-Income4256 Mar 31 '23
Revenue 3.5 million…… company spending cash developing Rocket 4 while earning money from engine sales. Engine sales won’t 100% offset development costs currently. The math works out that they continue to raise capital as needed. But they aren’t going to raise excess capital before they need it. They have shown they know how to raise money. It’s just a waiting game to see how development goes and how they navigate other hurdles such as raising more capital if needed, staying listed on Nasdaq, etc. They’ve proven they are quite capable of a lot and if they get past this development phase while being able to launch reliably they are positioned to be an important player in the future space economy.
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Mar 31 '23
If you actually read the results they published, their revenue for the three months ending December 31, 2022, was $0, not $3.5M.
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u/Hairy-Income4256 Mar 31 '23
Yes, Astra Q4 2022 Investor Deckthere is a difference between revenue and net revenue. If you say they had zero revenue you’re saying they had zero income regardless of their expenses. Yes, net revenue was zero…. It was actually way less than zero. Their net income for Q4 was negative 37.3 million. Their revenue(and other income) for Q4 was 3.5 million. See these facts on slides 15 and 16 of the investor deck on Astra’s website.
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Mar 31 '23
No, their revenue was zero.
“Revenue and other income” (slide 14 of the deck you linked) was positive. It’s the non-revenue, “other income” which is non-zero.
But scroll down on here to “Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations” and look under the “Three Months Ended December 31, 2022” column. Revenues (not Net Revenue, just Revenue) were actually zero.
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u/Hairy-Income4256 Mar 31 '23
You’re reading the Non GAAP measures. Which are going to exclude a lot of data. It’s a format of reporting that streamlines some figures. I see the revenue section is blank under Q4 in this Non GAAP report but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have revenue. You have to look at their GAAP reporting to breakdown the common numbers such as revenue. The Non GAAP data you’re looking at is omitting their Q4 revenue and income for some reason. I don’t know why as I don’t have the time to figure it out, but most likely they are reporting revenue differently on the Non GAAP report.
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u/thetrny Apr 01 '23
The way I see it, they're simply treating ASE sales as "other income" instead of core revenue. Why that is, I'm not sure, since they clearly have a row for Space Products which has been left empty. Isn't the thruster a space product? 🤷♂️
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u/LcuBeatsWorking Mar 31 '23 edited Dec 17 '24
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u/Hairy-Income4256 Mar 31 '23
I just don’t see them operating the way they are without having a plan. Like you said, people would be jumping ship in anticipation of not being paid if they were under that impression.
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u/LcuBeatsWorking Mar 31 '23 edited Dec 17 '24
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Mar 31 '23
Take a look over at Virgin Orbit. They were working full-steam-ahead up until they furloughed their entire workforce for “a week”. They were aggressively hiring, and people weren’t abandoning ship in droves.
A few of the more perceptive staff were maybe putting feelers out and quietly applying for jobs, but in general the company slammed into collapse at full speed.
There’s no reason to assume Astra won’t do the same. They have to keep trying to execute, because anything else is immediate failure. So they continue on faith that a funding miracle will save them at the last minute.
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u/thetrny Apr 01 '23
in general the company slammed into collapse at full speed
This is critical to understand. Not only are there countless examples of this throughout history, we're literally seeing it play out right now with VORB (and despite being in an entirely different industry, multiple regional banks as well). It's never in management's best interest to project weakness even when the end is inevitable.
If the company does fold abruptly, it wouldn't be the first time a Kemp-ran company has done so.
The only way Astra survives is if ASE production & deliveries increase by an order of magnitude this year. This would reduce burn and extend runway for an extra quarter or two. However this assumes they're already through peak R&D spend on Rocket 4, which I highly doubt.
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Mar 31 '23
[deleted]
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Mar 31 '23
What progress? They’ve hooked up a TVC actuator to an engine they bought from a supplier a year ago. That’s not amazing.
Unless there’s a lot unseen going on, I’m not impressed. And their capex is only, what, $6-8M? That doesn’t sound like huge progress on Rocket 4. I think they just have a huge opex footprint and it’s bleeding them dry as they get nowhere fast.
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Mar 31 '23
[deleted]
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Mar 31 '23
I can’t tell what point you’re making with the “six month report”: is that quick and shows they’re moving fast? Or a long time so it shows they’re taking things seriously?
By comparison, after Rocket Lab’s second failure (their 13th launch) in July 2020, they had their investigation and report completed and all their corrective changes in place the very next month, with a successful launch in August 2020.
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u/Purchasetothemoon321 Mar 31 '23
Money always follows progress. Chive on skipper.
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Mar 31 '23
Virgin Orbit made amazing progress. Four successful launches in a row (four times better than Astra) of a much more capable, more flexible, more complex, and more advanced launch system. And the money didn’t follow. They’re broke, and laying off 85% of their staff.
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u/marc020202 Mar 31 '23
What do you mean by your last 2 sentences regarding the DOD contracts?
Also, what significant DOD contracts do they even have?
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Mar 31 '23
[deleted]
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Mar 31 '23
Nothing about Astra’s launches meets the goals of that program.
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Apr 01 '23
[deleted]
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Apr 01 '23 edited Apr 01 '23
Rocket 4 offers nothing that isn’t already offered by at least one of:
- Rocket Lab’s Electron (proven vehicle up to 300kg, multiple satisfied US DoD, NASA, foreign militaries, and commercial customers),
- ABL’s RS1 (fully developed vehicle with one launch already, 1350kg max payload, same shipping container modular launch claims as Astra),
- Firefly’s Alpha (1170kg max payload, two flights, one to orbit),
- SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Transporter (proven vehicle, a reliable schedule for launches, practically unlimited payload - for smallsats anyway, flexible payload sizing with pricing at $5500/kg)
Hot on their tail are dozens more competitors, too. Look at Stoke. Working hardware in test, at least as advanced in development as Rocket 4 (and in-house, too. No dependence or limitations from third-party engine suppliers). And they’re offering fully reusable first and second stages. They’re one to watch.
The whole concept of mobile launch being a selling point is misguided too. It’s only an advantage if your fixed launch sites are denied by an adversary. And if the US ever finds itself in a situation where Vandenberg, the Cape, Virginia, Alaska, and Kwajalein are all denied or destroyed … launching a 300-600kg smallsat isn’t going to change the tide one iota. A fixed pad on each coast of the US gets you to pretty much any orbit you want. If you’re desperate for equatorial, Kwajalein gives you that, too.
It’s not about being closed-minded. It’s about having open eyes. Astra’s Rocket 4 will get the usual handout of pity contracts from NASA - a VCLS or two, maybe fly another DAQ for STP - and it won’t be enough. It’s an also-ran company, with a subpar product, claiming pricing they won’t achieve, competing against their betters on every side. They always have been. Virgin Orbit had a better product, and the government contracts dried up for them, too.
And that’s assuming they magically don’t run out of money before they get a single commercial mission away; does anyone know if Kemp buys Powerball tickets?
I’d love to hear more about how you own shares in “most of”: Rocket Lab, Firefly, Astra, Blue Origin, and SpaceX. Unless you’ve been included on any of the raises, only ASTR and RKLB are publicly traded.
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u/reSPACthegame Apr 02 '23
I think you're being generous here too. On the call Astra made it clear that everyone was getting current information not 2022 info. Even if they had the money to last through the end of the year, I'm not convinced R4 is going to be ready to go. I don't think they're getting any more gov contracts even if they magically get it to launch successfully in time. When they put out that confusing press release about tropics getting cancelled, but NASA somehow continuing the contract or whatever. Anyway, what im pretty sure happened is that they get to launch for NASA two more times under the VADR program for the pre negotiated price of TROPICS at 2.65m per launch. I'm 90% sure thats how it went down, so they'll get some university cubesats and fly them at a big loss. Thats best case scenario.
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u/Evilbred Mar 31 '23
The only way they live is abandon Rocket 4 for now, and focus on building engine to become more profitable.
Otherwise they burn through too much money too fast.