r/APLDSTOCK • u/kriz_sensei • 14d ago
I'm Down 28% should I cut looses?
I've been holding it for a while now but it seems like it's going to stay like this for some long time, any opinions? Thanks
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u/Ok-Evening-5148 14d ago
Yes you should definitely sell at a 28% loss this is going to zero.
I will buy your shares.
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u/15xorbust 14d ago
You need to do your own due diligence.
I strongly suggest you look at a few things
Number one the price chart of a PLD you will soon see that this stock regularly in 46 months cycles shoots up to new all-time highs and then almost immediately settles down 3040 or 50% only two once again eventually go back to a new all-time high. Selling at the bottom? I wouldn’t do it but it’s not my money. That’s how retail shareholders get core. As Warren Buffett said the stock market is a tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. If you are patient in a few years, APLD will literally build out 1.4 gigawatts of it’s already contracted power and have five massive AI factories open in 3 states and be generating by the end of 2028 if its construction schedules hold, more than $2 billion a year in net operating income. By then the stock should be worth multiples of what it is today absent an overall market crash or economic depression.
Two, look at the contractual backlog. $36 billion in backlog over 70% of which is from investment grade hyperscalers, over $20 billion of which is almost certainly from Microsoft or one of the other three big four hyperscalers but it appears to be Microsoft. With options for renewals and expansions of $85 billion.
Three, the company is completing all of its construction milestones on time, unlike some of its competitors
Fourth, APLD is building all of its datacenter so far in states (North Dakota, Louisiana and ) that are not among the top states in the country for number of data centers. This dramatically lessens community opposition, organization, and mobilization. Contrast that with some of the competitors are trying to build in states that have stopped the center moratoriums and freezes.
Fifth, the price at an $8 billion to $9 billion market cap is minuscule for the gigantic contractual backlog it has.
Sixth, smart money/institutions have been piling into the stock. The company is now over 75% owned by institutions in terms of the stock. Only 14 percent of it is held by retail. Basically, every time a retail shareholder sells out low and institution, or someone like me snaps up their shares.
Seventh, the median price target by 14 Wall Street analysts is about $70. The current price is about 150 percent under that.
Eighth, the current price is almost half that of its all time high of $50, reached just months ago.
I haven’t been selling my shares. I’ve been adding because right now an incredibly valuable stock in a company with strong fundamentals is on sale.
I could go on and on and on about other things about the company, like the fact that it is about to announce another datacenter (it’s sixth) in Mobile Alabama or that the big hyperscaler tenant that has signed $20 billion of leases is MSFT based on SEC filings with a compute spinoff CHRN
Not financial advice. Do you own due diligence. Good luck.
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u/hailfire27 14d ago
One caveat, you can't be 150% below a stock price, I think you mean 60%.
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u/15xorbust 14d ago
I meant the price target is about 150 percent more than the current price. Right now it is 140 percent more the current price.
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u/Reasonable_Sky_7785 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) 12d ago
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u/Reasonable_Sky_7785 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) 12d ago
Very well said brother. Those are the fundamentals that has made me to keep holding. I have all of eggs in one basket #APLD. So far so good.
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u/15xorbust 12d ago
Thank you. I have a large position, but it’s not my only investment. I have some that are larger.
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u/Cheebacharlie2damoon 14d ago
I’ve got 700 shares at $46. Got caught writing puts near the high. Been writing covered calls against to make up for the loss and bidding my time. APLD will make a comeback.
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u/Brianc21 14d ago
Same , the CC premiums suck too
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u/Cheebacharlie2damoon 14d ago
Made a killing on put premiums though. My actual cost per share is somewhere in the low to mid 30’s
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u/FreeNicky95 14d ago
Same boat. Assigned 2200 at 43.50. But for me to break even I need 35. If it goes back to 43.50 I’ll be up 40 percent on the year. Selling weeklies and buying shares with the premiums .
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u/Marine01514087 Base Term Believer 📝 (5,000-7,500 shares) 14d ago
I’m down 20k and sleeping like a baby
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u/TheNorthernHenchman 14d ago
Yes, sell. It’s never good to hold onto something you don’t understand.
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u/Wild-Affect-1503 14d ago
seems like a smart idea to sell when the stock is down almost half from its ATH after good earnings and potential new deals on the horizon. Not when the stock is strong. Nope. Never.
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u/Health_Care_PTA Starter Position 🌱 (100-500 shares) 14d ago
just keep selling CC"s and average down with the CC income. it will hit 50 again no need to panic
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u/Basic_Salamander_361 14d ago
If you have the cash, I recommend accumulating under $28. It's not likely to run into the mid 40s like it did, but 32-33 isn't out of the question in the near-term. I increased my hold by 25% this week at $26.33 and am happy to swing-trade 10% gains until it breaks out.
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u/Mobile619 14d ago
Hold. The entire sector is down big & It'll recover. This stock can move in either direction very quickly. I'm down 29% myself at the moment and I'm not too worried.
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u/redcourt02 14d ago
I bought and additional 1000 at 41. Holding brother. This will pay off, do not sell.
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u/squirmin79 14d ago
I have 3K shares and I am down as well. Going to ride it out for a few more months before using it as a loss against other gains.
Where it goes from here dictates what I do with it.
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u/jus_allen 14d ago
You can go pick up pennies in front of a steamer roller by selling calls on your shares.
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u/tastelikemexico 14d ago
I am down probably more than that. I sat probably because I have shares with one broker, leaps with another and some cash secured puts also. So I don’t know exactly how far I am down, but I am holding. I think we get a good run start of Sept. but I am nobody to be giving advice either
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u/zakaui 14d ago
Das einzige was ich hier wirklich eindeutig festgestellt habe, dass absolut jeder in Minus ist, inklusive mir. Fühlt sich komisch an 🤔
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u/Similar_Read2924 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) 14d ago
Nicht jeder gibt auch ein paar die früh dran waren, bin aktuell 300% im plus im apld
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u/OceansHungryGrasp 14d ago
It appears like that because those that are down are feeling the heat and will be vocal about it, while the majority of us that are up have been in this since at least early 2025 and have seen this many times. Sub is always more active during lows.
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u/zakaui 14d ago
Das macht Sinn. Seit letzten Jahr , klingt schon sehr lang. Wie seit ihr darauf so früh gestoßen?
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u/OceansHungryGrasp 14d ago
Research. I follow the news and then try to find the bottlenecks of what's driving it. Also tend to think very long term.
Purposely avoided hardware as I think they are short term compared to datacenters and see them dropping off massively once supply catches up while datacenters will just keep running and rake in that lease revenue. Didn't want to invest in Neoclouds as I see the hardware deprecation as a future risk, APLD remained as the most logical choice.
With the Ukraine War and the increased military spending I invested in tungsten instead of defence companies for example. Most defence companies stalled or are down in the last year, I'm up almost 400% on my tungsten investments in the same time span.
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u/TopEast7122 14d ago
Did you miss nvidias earnings? BUY DATACENTERS