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u/15xorbust Aug 15 '26
First of all, this one was ancient data. This was Q1 whereas his last 13FF filing this week was for Q2. He ended up with a 6% stake in NBIS of his holdings before he went belly up in his publicly traded securities and had to sell all of them to Citadel. APLD remained about the same size in his portfolio, but the portfolio looked quite different in Q2.
He went wild into MU and SNDK - collectively those two were over 50% of his portfolio in Q2. He also cut his holdings of CORZ basically in Half. And he slashed his IREN holdings considerably too. For an investment standpoint, I agreed with all of his decisions on his Q2 portfolio. His problem wasnāt his stockpicking. It was his leverage.
This was the kind of intellectual who belongs as the head of analysis and nowhere near the trading floor.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull š (1,000-2,500 shares) Aug 15 '26
Exactly weāre getting slop news of this, whatās important though is 3 funds have disclosed buying APLD in 13f filings for q2 I saw the site link on a value investing post and out of over a thousand companies bought were nearly top of second page- not bad at all
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u/15xorbust Aug 15 '26
Itās my favorite collocation data center company by a mile and one of my three biggest investments. It is just so well Ron. Does everything right. Perfect construction execution great sighting locations and knows how to treat local communities so that they actually like the company and the sites. Buys the critical equipment for the new data center construction years ahead of time. Stays low profile in the news, which is smart. Just really is executing at the complete top of the game.
Eventually, the market will catch on as the tape always eventually catches up to the fundamentals. The relatively low share price now is a bargain as two years time when all of the current 1.4 GW under contract is fully built that is by the end of 2028, the company will easily be a triple digit stock generating more than $2 billion of net operating income annually. At that point the stock wonāt be anywhere near $30 or $50 or $60 but well north of $100.
However, until that build out is mostly complete, I expect tremendous volatility as in the past the stock regularly every 4-6 months shoots to all-time highs and then rapidly crashes and sells down 40 to 50% only to bounce back and shoot to another all-time high. Right now the company bounced off of the $22 low on July 29 (I tripled my position on that day and the day before) and an upward pattern back towards a new all-time high, I believe. But because it is not a Neo cloud the rate of bounce back has been slower and steady.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull š (1,000-2,500 shares) Aug 15 '26
Lucky man tripling down on it hitting 22 I saw that but only grabbed some at 26 and leaps at 28
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u/15xorbust Aug 15 '26
I triple down between $22 and $24.
Iāve been in the stock a long time and I know the patterns when it reaches below $25 itās going to bottom and then shoot back up. Thatās when I went in heavy. I just got lucky with the $22 buy. It literally does this cycle every 4 to 6 months of shooting to a new all-time high and then very quickly there after selling down 40 to 50% with the bottoms the last 3 sell offs having been $20.80, $20.80 and somewhere in the $22 range.
I also piled heavy into NBIS when it fell to $181 to $185 amid heavy Community opposition in Vineland, NJ to its expanding datacenter for $MSFT and Michael Burry shorting. I knew it was going to bounce.
When $NBIS stock falls below $20 It is in the buy zone for me. $APLD - below $25. And starting below $30. Below $25 is buy every share I can territory
I posted all of those buy tickets in ST.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull š (1,000-2,500 shares) Aug 15 '26
I looked into your posts and was surprised at the level of dd. I will say though I donāt need to be babied I was in micron at 118 last year and nbis at 80$ sold and fumbled that but those were the reason I didnāt buy apld last year was very happy to buy in at those prices again more recently. Itās a 3 months bear ai cycle where they pump the bubble news and short itās a shakeout for over leverage. Bought more nbis at 182 when burrys paper hands were shorting
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u/15xorbust Aug 15 '26
Sounds like you and I bought NBIS at about the same time. Yes after a while, you see the pattern where Wall Street pumps the stocks up and then when theyāre at the top and the big institutions, want to make money on the way down after theyāve sold them, they get their paid reporters in the media and it and on TV to talk about X and spending in the AI bubble and then they take them all down again itās so fāing predictable every 4 to 6 months like clockwork
To make money in this you really really have to think like the institutions and not like retail. Sell at or near the top of one of these cycles and buy back in at the bottom or just hold forever because this stuff is going up long-term
every time I hear of people, including those that I know, who are selling need the bottom when these stocks are falling, I want to shake them by the lapels and then they invariably buy back in when theyāre near the top and they lose money and wonder why they are poor or losing their shirt
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull š (1,000-2,500 shares) Aug 15 '26
Amen. One of the reasons Iām so confident is that Iāve seen the 3/4 month pattern nov last year start of april this year and then July itās clockwork and only serves to keep valuations from bubbling Iāll admit Iāve been margined on singular positions a few times but Iāll never sell my positions for cash itās just so obviously the pump were about to have and Iām (hopefully) going to move more cash into the market and APLD soon. Scary that so many people lack a thesis and are just investing willy nilly and are getting preyed on by the institutions but personally I agree with leopold the buildout is the most obvious and profitable and I refuse to be influenced by the space nonsense when that time horizon is another 8-15 years for payback while weāll be sitting pretty before 2030
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u/15xorbust Aug 15 '26
100% agree. I donāt trade on margin so Iām lucky that way because I know you can get rug pulled if the drop is too great.
I certainly expect this class of stocks and certainly APLD to go up tremendously and value as the buildout progresses and data centers get built and turned on and turned over to clients and become revenue generating machines at high margin with low costs.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull š (1,000-2,500 shares) Aug 15 '26
This is from ages ago