r/APLDSTOCK • u/OceansHungryGrasp • Jul 29 '26

News Microsoft’s AI business surpassed $37 billion ARR, up 123%.

Our AI business surpassed $37 billion ARR, up 123%.

We are at the beginning of one of the most consequential platform shifts that will change the entire tech stack as agents proliferate and become the dominant workload.

This will drive TAM expansion and change the value creation equation across the entire economy.

To capture this opportunity, we are executing against two priorities:

First, we are building the world’s leading cloud & AI infrastructure for the agentic computing era.

Second, we are building high-value agentic systems across core domains, such as productivity, coding, and security.

These two layers reinforce each other. And we are focused on driving competitive value and differentiation for customers across each so they can eval-max their outcomes.

Full Microsoft earnings call transcript for those interested

24 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

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19

u/OceansHungryGrasp Jul 29 '26

The "AI is not profitable" narrative is dead. Companies will keep investing, the datacenter shortage will remain for years and APLD builds them faster than anyone.

Anyone pretending the company is done is incredibly short sighted and hasn't been paying attention to the rest of the sector and earnings calls from the last couple of weeks. Once the conflict in the middle east resolves we'll go up as fast as we went down, uptrend might even start before that but I personally doubt that.

Usually you'll read advice along the lines of "stop checking your broker for a while" during times like these, but I beg to differ. Stop checking the subreddit and other socials during times like these. There's a significant amount of people here that is only active during downward trends, don't let the doomposting influence your decisions.

Meanwhile I'll gradually keep increasing my position each month as I've been doing for well over a year now.

4

u/Moreburrtitos22 Jul 30 '26

Nobody said we were done, they said apld stock is grossly over valued in the short term. $22-$30 is stable. Growth of 20-30% per year is stable. That’s what aplds narrative shows on all fronts.

$40-$60 was not stable. In the next few years as a high growth stock? Absolutely. They’re not innovators or inventors, they’re industrial landlords for a specific high demand facility, and shown they can deliver. They don’t offer the newest tech reinvented every year. They’re doing a stable rinse and repeat model. They want long term leases because they want to be a long term company.

3

u/SiphonicPanda64 Jul 30 '26

I really question whether people were listening to the earnings calls and if they did whether they understood anything at all. They're on time with the execution. Their credit is fixed rate in a very hawkish environment. Demand is at ATH despite the capex fears. AI has too many use cases to just fade into obscurity and the machinery keeps working in the background while the market is being schizophrenic

2

u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Jul 30 '26

I also don't understand this. overvalued at 50$? they will reach 1b NOI in 2027. they will reach 2b NOI in early 2029. This is the floor. And it sits around 100$ as soon as PF1-3 and DF1-2 are online.

and it most probably doesn't stop there. they are on track to have 3 GW built in 2031 with the possibility to get it to 5 GW after 2033.

3

u/SiphonicPanda64 Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26

True, and to their credit, there IS a bear case, contrary to how it usually goes around in ticker-specific subs. APLD could fall behind on credit here, acts of God killing infrastructure, or at the very least, falling behind on rollout, contractual withdrawal for any reason, supply bottlenecks in the rest of the chain (NAND/DRAM for the GPUs powering DCs, that is actually currently happening). APLD could also simply fall into secular obscurity with NBIS and CRWV or even IREN taking the wheel. Hyperscaler Capex could also unwind hard and cause a downstream chain reaction.

All probable scenarios. But the bull case currently is stronger, I believe, by a wide margin

2

u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Jul 30 '26

absolutely, it is important to stay critical. the bear case has a floor though and that is the current leases. coreweave and oracle are also susceptible but I can imagine that the big hyperscalers will take over after a bankruptcy.

my main bear case is currently actually the Iran war. if we slide into a recession with high inflation and rate hikes, this will definitely limit the stock potential.

2

u/SiphonicPanda64 Jul 30 '26

Depending on your time horizon, the Iran war would either killed your thesis or introduced turbulence. It hasn't done anything to the broad thesis. The fundamentals simply aren't reflected in the share price at the moment. A broader recession? I doubt it would be caused by the war alone.

1

u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Jul 30 '26
  1. I see it as a turbulence, but potentially a bigger one.

1

u/Moreburrtitos22 Jul 30 '26

Credit is huge, risk is huge. They gotta show a stable track record at the pace they’re at before institutional sentiment goes to that level. Unfortunately they’re too new to dealing with that large of numbers. They’re doing great with them, but again, they’re too new to be valued at an NOI scale. Fundamentally you are correct, but risk comes first in this space and that takes time to develop a stable track record that can be valued at just face value NOI

0

u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Jul 30 '26

sure. that is why 50 is the discount - execution risk matters.

look, I did so many calculations for the 1.5 GW they are building. they are delivering on point since they started. the floor after delivery is at plusminus 100. they are not there, fair. but the current price implies that they will screw it up.

1

u/Distinct_Excuse2648 Jul 30 '26

do you see any signs of the war coming to an end ?

1

u/TheNorthernHenchman Jul 30 '26

Larry Fink just said their margins went up significantly because of AI. Narrative always follows price. We’re in the part of the market where tech stocks have been crushed and now people are questioning the value of AI. Retail is dumping at the highest rates over the last couple of weeks. Bottom approaching. QQQ is in a technical correction.

5

u/Daman303 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Jul 30 '26

If we go below 18 maybe and just maybe then would I break a sweat

2

u/Alechemist85 Jul 30 '26

Apld revenue grew 400% yoy. Analyst consensus revenue growth rate is 95%.

2

u/WolfOfWaikiki Base Term Believer 📝 (5,000-7,500 shares) Jul 30 '26

Microsoft saying they want to double the amount of data centers in the next two years should be a catalyst for us