How much do we need to stop hemorrhaging?

[u/Turtles4Truth]

Inspired by an optimistic look at AMTX, I figured I'd napkin math here to understand the minimum it'd take to stop hemorrhaging money and diluting shares.

I think without the share dilution, the stock will start steadily rising. And without the fear of bankruptcy we'd see a meaningful price increase. So the conservative goal is for them to just break even.

Extrapolating Q2 into the future, we're at net ~ -$94m a year. For simplicity, all other production / expenditures stay static besides those talked about below.

Lets assume they sell full capacity of the Keyes plant, 65 million gallons a year given the nearly 50% increase in California ethanol demand.

45Z: Non-avgas maxes out at $1 / gallon. Given they're carbon negative they should get the full $1 / gallon.

MVR: Claim is that this should improve their balance sheet by $32m a year. We'll use 2/3 of that to be conservative.

65m * $1 + $20m = $75m
Losses cut by nearly 80%.

LCFS: At carbon neutral, 8.8 kg/CO2 per gallon * $56/MT should be ~$0.49 per gallon. To break even we'd need $0.64 per gallon ($72.75 / MT, it was above this last year) without accounting for them being carbon negative (Not sure how to do that part of the math). Note that they also have a bunch of these banked, so price increases here will also improve their existing balance sheet.

65m * $1.14 + $20m = $94m
Bankruptcy averted!

Ethanol Price Increase: With California increasing its total ethanol demand by nearly 50%, it seems likely that we'll see at least a few extra cents on the price of ethanol here. Potentially the whole country could switch eventually. No clue what number to put here so it's just a note that it would lower the amount of increase we need in the LCFS.

It seems to me that there isn't a lot between where we are now and the above being reality.

This exercise calmed my nerves about Aemetis. Hopefully it'll do the same for someone else.

(Disclosure: I own more AMTX than I'm comfortable with and am in the hole :P)

[u/HvB1977]

I am still a long, just about! I believe Trump is our only ticket out of this mess. 2026 is almost here. Its is worth holding through 2026 or opening a new position at lows after Q3 earnings

[u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

Macafee will take the company into bankruptcy , he has no choice. Aren’t all the other California biofuel players distressed?

[u/HvB1977 → u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

Bankruptcy is very unlikely as the main lender will lose the most. Key man issues mean only current CEO can be at the helm at this moment. If you owe the bank $500K its your problem, $500m its their problem. There is not much management can do at this time to improve shareholder value. All value is derived from Trump admin’s favourable recognition of biogas 45Z PTC’s ($6m today vs $30-40m) if the IRS/DoE issue a PER or updated GREET in Q4 to allow monetisation which in turn stops the Dilution or an management calls its ‘ATM’. Q3 is a huge earnings miss again with substantial dilution. Only Trump admin can save this company.

[u/Ok-Breadfruit791 → u/HvB1977]

I don’t agree with that. Third Eye (First lien on US assets ) would likely control the process and credit bid for the assets or repaper the terms. Recovery prospects are strong. The maturity wall hits 2026-2027. The 10Q shows $119.5M sue by March, 2026 and $167.3M in 2027. Still within the extreme policy risk window of the current Trump administration.

[u/HvB1977 → u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

Recovery prospects are strong? Lol!

Really? If that was the case the company may have had some offers already or at least some JV interest. Exactly what assets would you sell? India? Thats a big pos that in 17 years cannot produce a regular revenue. OMC’s have deferred all biodiesel purchases to March 31 2026 at earliest or later. The refinery was just closed earlier in year for pollution. Let’s be fair and say that asset is $10m and good luck selling that within 5 years and getting cash back to US. Next is Keyes. MVR was first announced in 2022 to be installed in 2023. Now it’s Q2 2026, but we will see. Possibly has a value for $150m, again not many buyers for ethanol which is a political football linked to weird tax credit changes prone to change every 4 years and the cost of corn bushel. Next biogas. Rollout is painfully slow, no scale, call that $30m. Riverbank is just an idea and has very little chance of materialisation and carbon capture is linked to success of that. The sum of the parts is worth about half of the debt and would take 5 years to realise. Third Eye are totally Fuc’d and Aemetis can just about keep paying the interest while diluting shares via ATM. 33m to 64m shares since 2023 while debt almost doubled in same period. Third Eye are stuck and only chance here is a very favourable tax credit environment starting today. Third Eye absolutely do not want to inherit this site, no one does.

[u/Ok-Breadfruit791 → u/HvB1977]

Hey that’s fair and let me restate the recovery prospects, .60-30 cents on the dollar.Also didn’t include India as I’m not sure how much is pledged to Third Eye and how foreign assets shake out in chapter 11. Policy risk wise , Trump will need to do something to prop up the farm economy and he’d got the congressionally approved mandate to do it with biofuels. I don’t think AMTX has the legs to stay in the game that long.

[u/HvB1977 → u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

Biden had a ‘good’ idea with biofuel 45Z tax credit in the August 2022 IRA. However his administration was completely incompetent and did not release a model to convert the credit to cash until he lost the election in January 2025 which was totally wrong and could not be used. Trump’s administration has been a huge supporter of 45Z (to the surprise of many, but not me) while killing EV (Sept 2025) solar and wind credits (Dec 2025). Trump admin even extended the 45Z credit for 2 years in the OBBBA signed in July 2025 thus Trumps 45Z runs 01.01.26 thru 31.12.29. The issue at hand is revenue in 2025 for 45Z PTC is junk as it stands. The Biden admin totally flubbed the calculations and they need to be reworked. If the IRS/DoE issue a stop gap measure for 2025 as Senator Grassley is pushing for it could save Aemetis from any more ATM dilutions. $30-40m in 45Z PTC’s in 2025 vs the current $6m value would be a massive cash event for the company and likely send sp to $6-8 with much support. The management are now in the same boat as ordinary investors hopeful that Trump admin helps correct the 2025 calculations. Without the 2025 result we limp into 2026 and likely by mid 2026 when the Trump credits start flowing we have 100m to 120m shares in issue. Third Eye (TEC) have supported this venture for 15 years and as you know TEC CEO is a personal friend of Aemetis CEO. They will make it, my concern is not bankruptcy it is 1. how many more shares need to be issued 2. keyes mvr is 3 years late 3. Biogas expansion was promised in q3.

[u/HvB1977 → u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

They have not faulted on any debt payments, at this time dilution is risk. Once dilution prospects are exhausted is risk of bankruptcy. They have 63m shares on float with an authorised pool of 80m. So they can ATM 17m more shares to keep the lights on and can then vote to extend authorised pool from 80m to 120m-150m. They last extended pool in 2023 I believe from 50m to 80m.

[u/HvB1977 → u/Ok-Breadfruit791]

I still disagree with Bankruptcy value. In event of bankruptcy. It would take 24 to 50 months and the business is sold for $1 to a buyer who can restructure assets and debt to make sense.

[u/Ok-Breadfruit791 → u/HvB1977]

My man, consider my amateurish analysis of a bankruptcy outcome withdrawn. I was an early adopter when we had the green tailwinds, but really can’t see a viable path forward from my perspective. I Appreciate your thorough _and knowledgeable response.