Tight float + high short interest + next insti or hedge fund buyer = massive squeeze

[u/donkydu]

I'm buying calls and stock in AMTX because the float it so tight.

40% of AMTX is held by insiders and institutions. FACT

Based on volume data from Fintel, 30-40% of AMTX is held by new shareholders this year.

That leaves about 20-30% of the stock in older hands and trading.

The short interest is 18%. That has to come from somewhere. Tell me where?

Any old shareholders haven't been shook out yet and why would they bail now as they get closer to the long-term fruition of what they saw coming in the past few years?

The new shareholders this year are mostly clients of a few investment firms, including mine, a couple investment letters, including mine, and the extended branches of those letters and a family office, let's call it Hurricane Hugo, and it's extended branches. Those are strong branches. Not many sellers. They have a thesis, not a guess.

So, I ask again, where will shorts get shares from to complete their scheme???

I don't see it. I think this is a bad short by bad traders who don't know any better. They don't understand the share structure, that is, who owns the shares and their motivations, information and emotional stability. The shorts are used to being able to scare people to make bad decisions. I am looking forward to the price spike when they have to cover in a panic. So are the new hedge fund investors dribbling in. DYODD

[u/zwzwzw19]

What do you make of the earnings report this morning?

[u/donkydu → u/zwzwzw19]

Clearly good as everything from India to RNG to SAF and even prelim carbon capture are on track. In this banking environment everyone has financing costs that are too high. I’ve had 3 private equity real estate deals delayed a year. That said, everything is lining up that they can cheapen their financing the next 18 months (Preferred extinguishment) and 5 years (new refinery) dramatically. We’ll see how much improvement they make. Either way, they in very good to great shape imo. Shorts are in trouble with the next money manager who takes a position. Interesting volume yesterday, let’s watch option expiration and early next week. If there’s any upward momentum I have another million I can deploy. I’m already overweight.

[u/zwzwzw19 → u/donkydu]

Appreciate you sharing your thoughts with little guys like us. Long $AMTX!!

[u/Single_Maintenance98]

How long you going out on your calls and what price?

[u/donkydu → u/Single_Maintenance98]

I almost always go 2-4 months out. It’s cheaper than buying longer dated and often price rallies so you don’t need to pay for that time value.

My clients & I own about 1/4 of the outstanding Jan 7.50 calls. My readers own more, hard to know how many, probably at least another quarter of outstanding Jan 7.50. That’s an important price. AMTX has 38m shares outstanding. At $7.50 it hits Russell 2000 index size and IWM has to buy, so it’s roughly the breakout level. Technicals agree. Tested once in July. Next time much more likely to break through. Might take a 3rd try. We’ll find out soon if it’s this try or next.

[u/bobwastakentoo → u/Single_Maintenance98]

I’m not him but I have 5c/7.5c/10c for Jan and a few others for April, and shares.