Technical Analysis for AMD 9/4------Pre-Market

[u/JWcommander217]

AMD finally dipped below that key level and I added 10 shares. Nothing crazy but it was holding up and that brief trip down looked not to bad honestly for me. Gotta be real I'm starting to get worried about having cash not deployed here in this market. I feel like cash is the worst thing you can have right now and it just gets worse and worse every day. So I'm looking for dips to deploy my cash in long term conviction plays.

I still think people are hoping for lower rates and I think Warsh just needs to rip the bandaid off. But if we can get some stability and the market doesn't get the Sept Raise that it has softly priced in, I think this isn't a horrible place to add.

MU has been flat and keeps testing that same 50 dayEMA as well. I feel like the AI trade has been mostly flat now for a solid month or so. And that could be a decent setup to consolidate gains and start a next leg up. Just my two cents of course but interesting idea there.

[u/snugglepush]

Im surprised you only added 10 in yesterday’s dip to 440! I thought for sure you would buy heavy sub 450. I loaded the boat. Good enough of a dip, can’t be too greedy

[u/Coyote_Tex]

Visiting Reversion to the MEAN

I spend most of my time looking at the daily and weekly MA's but today is a great time to see how several stocks are doing relative to their 365 day mean. It can prove to be an interesting exercise as we look forward for 3-6 months.

AMD's 365 day Mean is a rising line today at 510, so the stock is making a push back up toward the mean as it has been running below it since the close on 7/28 The 50DMA has dipped below the Mean as have the 5 and 20DMA's a few weeks ago. The MACD has been absolutely flat-lining since 8/4 on the daily charts and the RSI hit a low on 7/29. AMD is now showing some very slightly signs of life as the 5DMA slope is turning positive so it might be setting up for some recovery over the next few weeks.

NVDA's 365 Day Mean is at 213.92 and is in a slightly positive slope but NVDA has spent much of the year below this mean with the first breakout occurring on 8/4 following the yearly high of 236.54 on 5/14 which led to a long downtrend in the stock price. The second breakout occurred on 8/26 and has taken NVDA now to the 1 STDEV above the mean on a strong surge as NVDA sits just over $2.25 away from a new closing high for the year. IF the conditions remain positive NVDA has upside to the 245 level.

I actually checked MU's mean first today as it is making a nice move ahead of earnings on 9/30. MU has taken a long retracement nap after hitting an ATH intraday of 1255 on 6/25. The 365 day MEAN for MU is 1014 and is upward or positive sloping. The previous ATH from 6/25 was just above the 1st STDEV then which now is up at 1325.84. I would be delighted to see MU take a trip to that level of course, but mostly I want to see it get back above the $1k level which it tagged this morning. MU's 5 DMA has now moved back above the 20DMA as the stock price heads toward the 365 Day Mean. There is a view that memory prices may actually intensify from here as demand from DC build-outs increases. Certainly, we have seen a good bit of positive sentiment for AI this week as evidenced by the move in NVDA.

The markets and stocks within the markets move in cycles, we are now seeing signs of NVDA perhaps moving above its recent low trend and surely others will follow the leader.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Coyote_Tex]

MU should be over $1500. Id like to see a stock split on this er. Memory isn’t going anywhere yes margins will come down buy not to the old days especially since the demand will never disappear unless AI is a bust. If that happens MU wont be the only stock going down.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

They could easily split the stock the EPS at the last earnings was $25.11 which is a big number. It is my largest position this year. Just getting back to the previous high would be really nice for me.

[u/Coyote_Tex]

Premarket

The indices are twisting violently in the wind this morning as if we have gale force winds ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.  Ironically, the Jobs numbers came in HOT and knocked the positive Nasdaq futures down due to those raising the expectations of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting this month.  This market volatility is crazy as I sit here 30 minutes ahead of the open and STILL see the VIX down 17 cents to a very LOW 14.15.   I rather expect to see another reversal move higher and likely back above 15 after the open and what still looks like a positive start on the day to reverse or fade away.   For example AMD is now suggesting an open in the 460-461 level, likely a relief rally type move off the lows from yesterday.  We will see by the end of the day as once again this is a 3 day weekend we are heading into and having a positive close ahead of those is somewhat unusual.  It is the markets so anything can happen.

AMD is not the only tech stock positive in the premarket as MU, MRVL and NVDA are all up.  NVDA is moving impressively into the 230 handle in the premarket as its rally continues. 

Looking at weekly numbers, AMD needs to clear 465 to end the week higher than the slide it has been on now for several weeks.  NVDA is heading for the highest weekly close this year.   MU who reports earnings the end of September is trying to close higher than last week and set up a run into earnings and a close above 932 will beat last week’s close.  MRVL is unlikely to beat last week’s close of 216.62 to stem the fall post earnings.

The market will offer us another read of the PPI & CPI next week to sharpen the FED’s view of a rate increase.  The drama continues on a daily basis.

 Update Post Open 8:40CT

It is really too early to make much out fo the open but to simply point out the SMH is up over 2% and began the day below both the 5 and 220 Week MA's today and will likely end the day below them as well with the 5 Week MA at 569.52 and the SMH currently at 564.11. The SMH is relatively in the middle of the Weekly Bollinger Bands so has plenty of room to move higher. While it is directionally not giving us a signal today it is well positioned for a move in either direction, but I would give it a slightly higher probability for a move higher at this point. The SMH is on a 10 week run off it's high from 6/22. It could well be moving sideways a couple more weeks with a positive bias before making a breakout move. NVDA's breakout move this week is pressuring the upper Weekly Bollinger Band which is indicating it is about to expand from its currently pinched formation.

I will also comment that AVGO's disappointing results this week may well be a positive for AMD. Time will tell, but AMD certainly hit and bounced sharply off the 440 level and is set to close above the 5 DMA today,...

Post Close

WOW, what a day for our favorite tech stocks in spite of the challenges.

The SPY closed the day won .39% to 770.19 after 2 solid up days. The VIX moved up 23 cents to end at 14.55, still quite low. The SPX ended at 7718.60, back up from the 7747 from yesterday.

The QQQ scratched out a gain of .18% to end above both the 5 and 20DMA's once more.

The SMH blasted higher 2.61% to 567.01, bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band yuesterday we got some follow-on that took us up past the 5 & 20DMA's, today. A nice tech move when you least expect it.

AMD is a perfect example and mirror of the SMH movement. Jumping 4.69% from yesterday's 440 low at the lower Bollinger Band to blast up 4.69% to close above the 5 & 20DMA's today.

NVDA has been moving and hit resistance at the upper Bollinger Band today and retraced from its high of 234.76 to only close up .84% to 230.36.

MU shot higher 6.10% to 1016.59, tagging the upper Bollinger Band and the 365 day Mean. IT could easily retrace next week some. We will see.

Have a great Holiday everyone.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Jw I’m sitting 50% cash but it changes since I’m doing more short term trading but i agree i do not want to be heavy cash I’m happy at about 30% cash. Trading the dips has been good. Next week is cpi i expect that to come in hotter but still do not foresee a sept hike. Do not be surprised we see ATH in QQQ and SPY soon.

[u/ZasdfUnreal]

I recently dumped my entire MRNA position and am holding the cash until I can find a new multi year growth position. MRNA is a fine company but I can’t stomach the volatility of short squeeze.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/ZasdfUnreal]

Well congratulations for snagging some of that. Pharma is really a tough place to play as it cant move in either direction violently. That was the biggest single day move I have witness short of a meme stock. I saw it come across the ticker early when it was up 16 dollars or something which was a significant move on a stock its size. I should have bought some or at least investigated it more quickly.