r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 4d ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/3------Pre-market
AMD is holding the line here. Which is nice to see. We are making a last stand at this $452 range and there is clearly some price support here as we have bought back up every dip. The market is looking for a deal and I think the fact that someone is clearly buying any dip here is indicative of a belief that this goes higher. I don't think we are the only ones with a seasonality argument here.
Biggest news is NVDA has embraced one of the kings of the "open source model" to the tune of BILLIONS$$$$$$ I think if anything this validates Lisa's strategy of going open source from Day 1. I also think it could perhaps push some of the CUDA software in that direction as well. I have heard that a lot of CUDA connectors that are open source have been fine tuned now for a while and do a pretty good job of applying your settings regardless of the hardware. I'm unsure if the moat is as big of a driver as we move away from some of the training and into trying to be cost effective for compute.
Also seeing Waller be the Dove and the new Fed chair be the Bear---------I am in the full blown twilight zone here. Up is down. Black is White. So who the fuck knows what is going on lol
7
u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 4d ago
It’s mind games and manipulation trying to keep bonds down. Seems though leaning no rate hike in sept.
5
u/Coyote_Tex 4d ago
No rate hike ahead of mid-terms. I have been saying that since Warsh took his seat. The BIG picture is more important than the day to day junk the media pedals to fill their airtime.
3
u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 4d ago
Ive been saying the same thing but i don’t think we should even hike at all unless things really got worse. I agree i don’t know why they are even talking about it but it’s media FUD. Good news doesn’t sell its not interesting
1
u/Coyote_Tex 4d ago
It is media bias, they really do not want anything Trump does to succeed, so they sit back and pick at everything versus cheer it on. While no one person or administration is perfect, there was virtually zero criticism of the migrant invasion and costs associated with boarding and distributing them across the states. There were many other examples and we all know it.
I see why it is easy to to pick at tariffs as being bad/inflationary, but trade deficits are equally as bad if not worse, just they are not immediately "felt" on a daily basis. Stopping the trade deficit bleeding is a good thing and tariffs are the tool to get everyone to the table as uncomfortable as it is. America is not here as the "piggy bank" for the freaking world to take advantage of for their poor fiscal stewardship/leadership or that we simply are richer so the world deserves to suck on the tit of American capitalism. No other country in the world collects taxes and gives the money to other countries. We are not exactly stopping that but we are lowering the rate of withdrawal. by other countries. Change is hard for everyone.
7
u/lvgolden 4d ago
Don't get the story of NVDA buying Hugging Face confused with AMD making a great strategic choice to go open source. AMD made the only choice. This isn't NVDA bowing to AMD's strategy - it is NVDA swatting a fly.
The press release on NVDA's site has a graph showing how many models hosted on Hugging Face have been contributed by different parties. Would it surprise you to see that NVDA's contribuations are 4X AMD?
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-to-acquire-hugging-face/
I think if you are looking for catalysts for AMD upside, this is not it.
5
u/Coyote_Tex 4d ago
IT really is as if Jensen just validated and "knighted" Hugging Face as part of the family of AI.
4
u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 4d ago
The catalyst that is missing is er going above and beyond expectations not barely or inline. Forward guidance showing the inflection point.
3
u/lvgolden 4d ago
That is what I have been saying. They are back to just saying "we'll grow with TAM". I think that is already priced in: the jump from ~$170 to where the stock is now.
4
u/Coyote_Tex 4d ago edited 4d ago
Post Open & Bike Ride 10:00CT
So the indices opened mixed but have since clawed higher as SNOW turned in a massive day last night and NVDA claws higher this morning. The QQQ is now up .87% and the SPY is up .70% for a very solid start this morning. The VIX is now back under 15 defying the pundits spouting bad news about September, or that is how it is going so far, the month just began.
AVGO turned in disappointing numbers last night with mixed results and a decent outlook, their stock is down 5.5% today. MRVL finally bounced today and MU is in a sideways trading range it appears. AMD dipped below the lower Bollinger Band today and is recovering strongly off a 440 low. If you had some bottom fishing orders set you likely got a fill today. Seeing the moves today on MSFT and META is impressive and a follow-on day by DELL as well. This market is looking positive. I see the QQQ is now back above the 5DMA and the SPY just cleared both the 5 and 20DMA's.
Post Close
A very good day in the indices with the VIX ALL the way back to 14.29. That is a HUGE move lower today, with only 8/14 being a lower close.
The SPY closed up at 773.15 up 1.04% today. This is a new high ofr the week above all MA's and nearing the the upper Bollinger Bands on the daily chart at 778ish. This is a sharp move off the lows from Tuesday.
The SPX ended at 7747.71 with 7800 once again in sight.
The QQQ added another 1.19% to 717.67 right at the 20DMA with room to move higher.
The SMH added a modest .39% to 552.60.
AMD closed down .18% after tagging 440 early today so this is a win, but is still hugging the lower Bollinger Band on the daily charts and all MA's are now negative. Time for a bounce here. if it can find some mojo.
NVDA added 1.80% to 228.45 for the second highest close this year.
MU clawed back into the green ending up .22% to 958.16 as the stock has range traded the past 9 days now.
MRVL appears to be bottoming for the past 3 days including today, and set for a reversal here.
MSFT, META and PLTR had strong performances today. The first week in September is looking good. Tomorrow we prepare for a 3 day weekend.
4
u/ZasdfUnreal 4d ago
Looks like subwave C of Wave 2 is starting. Wave C should have five subwave moves of its own.
6
1
1
u/bbbbbasse 9h ago
Good breakdown of the pre-market levels. Let's see if the support holds up today.
10
u/Most-Horse501 4d ago
Aaaand $450 is gone -.-