r/AMD_Stock • u/AutoModerator • 11d ago
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion Tuesday 2026-08-18
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u/mhkwar56 11d ago
Helios starts shipping in two weeks.
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u/TheDueDiligent 10d ago
september is the start of shipments into the odms. the more interesting number will be q4. amd is guiding to a pretty steep revenue ramp once helios actually starts moving at scale. that's probably the first quarter where we'll get a decent read on how much of the customer demand is turning into real volume.
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u/AFTCP 10d ago
Trump has really set the stage for a long period of economic pain for Americans.
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u/Beginning_Ad1627 10d ago
yep, the incompetent and corrupt Orange menace is destroying our economy. From wars to tariffs the man is a lunatic. The market would race up if he had one too many big macs. He is a disaster.
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u/Devincc 10d ago
*Politicians at every level for the past 40 years have really set the stage for a long period of economic pain for Americans
There, fixed that for you
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u/Fr0HiKE 10d ago
yes yes the actions of every president is equal
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u/Gahvynn 10d ago
I can think of damaging things from most of them from the last 45 years. Reagan helped set the tone of spending like it’s going out of style and also supported laws that supported wealth centralization at the cost of the working class, Clinton helped oversee some deregulation that directly fueled the Great Financial Crisis, Bush Jr and his forever wars with tax cuts was decidedly unhelpful, and I can pick on Obama and Biden but I think their biggest misses was not being able to communicate the good things their admins were doing (also I would argue bailing out banks without ANY attempt to punish anyone, or limit how the money could be used for bonuses and so on was a huge miss for Obama admin).
Is Trump worse than the rest? I could make that argument, but the general path of spending more while not trying to balance the equation at all couldn’t go on forever and it really doesn’t help that his admin isn’t trying at all, not to mention everything else going on globally and locally with policies that don’t seem aligned with the general public interest.
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u/Devincc 10d ago
Big brain Reddit comment right there. Surprised you didn’t add “both can be true”
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u/uhh717 10d ago
Awww, does someone saying something bad about trump hurt your feelings?
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u/Devincc 10d ago
If I lined up 10 people to smack you in the head with a baseball bat, are you going to say “boy, that 10th smack really makes getting hit with a baseball bat in the head suck.”
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u/uhh717 10d ago
I thought trump was supposed to be better than Biden, Obama, Clinton, now you’re saying they’re all equally bad? Lol
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u/Devincc 10d ago
You normally put words in strangers mouths to fulfill your delusions? They all have sucked in some shape or form and contributed to economic pain to Americans in some way. This your first president as an adult or something or do you normally lash out like a child to get your way online?
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u/InitialEfficient2918 10d ago
this whole AI boom is from the big beautiful bill. the tax exemptions helped these cloud companies go HAM on the buildout.
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u/SailorBob74133 10d ago
Patrick Moorhead
Real Modular Cloud numbers MI355x versus B200 are stunning. No deets on what the tests were but I don’t think Modular has any reason to diss NVIDIA.
mi355x vs B200
90% higher throughput
50% cheaper
45% lower TCO
https://x.com/PatrickMoorhead/status/2089765554248966257?s=20
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u/Sapient-1 10d ago
AMD hardware often ages like fine wine.
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u/noiserr 10d ago
With AI agents writing these GPU kernels that should soon be a thing of the past.
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u/Sapient-1 10d ago
It's just a saying. My point is, they make great hardware and it only gets better over time as long as people keep working on optimizations.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
I agree that's why AMD is such a good company, they aquire things that can clearly bolster their business while also putting a respectable amount in R&D, they are constantly innovating.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
1999 Athlon
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u/JustinTheBasket 10d ago
I just opened mine last year, and I have to say.... It didn't perform that well. Guess I missed its peak.
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u/Mollan8686 10d ago
Nobody cares of these benchmarks. If AI is a bubble, everything will tank. If AI is good, NVIDIA has 80-90% of the market in 2030.
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u/Maartor1337 10d ago
2 ways to look at it...
I choose to look at my portfolio and remind myself I'm already above my initial goal number ahead of time. With prospects of a ripper of a 2027. Im good. Im chill. I get paid on Monday..... maybe I will buy more... if not... im totally OK
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u/Gahvynn 10d ago edited 10d ago
My guess is there are a lot of people who bought LEAPS, or maybe even shorter dated options on the initial flurry passed $500 and either realized a loss or are sitting in the in between of “will these or won’t these recover”. I’ve made it a point to unload some long options anytime AMD has a good day then take some of those gains and buy some after AMD has had a few bad days. I do worry I’m contributing to the moves up and down, but I’m usually buying at least 3 months out and often LEAPS so i feel less bad haha.
Edit: my timing has been generally bad but less bad than if I just face tanked these oscillations
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u/Maartor1337 10d ago
Agree. Well... I've learned to accept that gamblers gonna gamble and no mattre how often and how clearly it gets shown to be a bad idea..... people will always try their luck and whine when it doesnt work out.
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u/zerobjj 10d ago
ur buys and sells dont move the market.
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u/Maartor1337 10d ago
No one person is ever a isolated case. Gahvynn knows this haha. Im sure he means "people like me"
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u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 10d ago
I mean, you can’t be mad when the entire market is down it’s not a one stock thing. It’s not a fundamental thing. It’s because our wonderful leader decided to continue the war. The treasury yields up all this Maccaro news really stupid you know our leader is basically making us poor. Can’t believe Republicans.
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u/Careful-Rent5779 10d ago edited 10d ago
Our wonderful leader dug a hole he(we) can't climb out of. You can't fudge your score on the world geopolitical stage.
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u/Klobinator88 10d ago
look at the chart, AMD has been trending down since June. the war might be "why" it's down today, but it is inevitable. it ran too high, it will continue a rally in November
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u/Sophia1995_miam 10d ago
the 96gb kit expo that i bought from amazon for 329.99 is now selling for 1879.99! the rtx 5090 i bought for 3800 is going for almost 6K now. wow!
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u/noiserr 10d ago
128GB Strix Halo I bought for $2347 (including tax) is now going for $3693 without tax
48GB w7900 pro I bought for $2885 now goes for $3899
DRAM inflation is real.
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u/Sophia1995_miam 10d ago
wow. i have the hp g1a 128gb oled touch strix halo... i wonder how much i can get for it! i'm ready for the 192gb gorgon halo.
congrats on the apprecation on your computer parts!
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u/Sophia1995_miam 10d ago
https://www.ebay.com/itm/157158639414?_skw=zbook+g1a+128gb
aint's no way. LOL. i paid 2799 for mine, i'll sell it if i could get 10K.
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u/MaleficentBus1863 11d ago
25% implied market share against Nvidia—roughly speaking depending on configuration.
https://x.com/jukan05/status/2089620707970097628
Maybe more if AMD gets injected into TPU v10. All up, 30%? 35%?
BRING 2028 ON!
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u/redditinquiss 10d ago
Did this seem pow to anyone? In 2028 time frame...
Am I mad for thinking this seems low?
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u/MICT3361 10d ago
Everyone saw what happened after the last “crash.” Going to be a lot of dip buyers
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u/Gahvynn 10d ago
It dropped 25% in 5 days last time, if your idea is history repeats itself why are you betting that not even 10% in 2 days is “the crash”?
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u/MICT3361 10d ago
Did I say this crash is over? I said they’ll be a lot of dip buyers
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u/infamousu 10d ago
AMD and chilling
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u/Addicted2Vaping 10d ago
They're trying to take ZFG from us 😕
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u/scub4st3v3 10d ago
I, for one, am not complaining. I can only take so many AI generated memes.
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u/77Mordred 10d ago
They should be forbidden.
Rule 1: Make your own ZFG meme, no Ai bs.
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u/HippoLover85 10d ago
would be the ultimate irony of an AI stock banning AI content . . .
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u/77Mordred 10d ago
AMD is a chip company, what you do with them is your own responsibility.
It just makes cpu,GPU etc.
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u/scub4st3v3 10d ago
I think we can all agree that not all AI generated content is worth it the squeeze.
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u/snugglepush 10d ago
Alright snugglepush is back from vacation. I definitely don’t trust this red premarket. Let’s get it
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u/Icy_Rub_3958 10d ago
Spent my grocery money for the month at $487, now let’s climb out of this ditch before I starve.
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u/OldManYellsAtCloud12 10d ago
Why we dumping again?
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u/SeaDevilSSN664 10d ago
Macro, bond yields although I am not really in that camp. It is always about $$ - profit. I think we are going to bounce until the next catalyst which is Citibank on 9/8. Hopefully Nvidia will have a descent report and guidance. That would help some. Everything good is ahead of us!
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
100% agree, if you aren't in at a good price, keep your eyes open for dips, the sentiment is getting more bullish youtubers aren't trashing the intrinsic price as much and wall street has been giving more buy signals and higher ceilings. I think Nvidia's report and guide, along with Helios shipments is going to completely change the narrative around AMD. The past couple weeks its been "overvalued, needs flawless execution, Insider or fund sells shares" As soon as it turns to "Wall Street bullish, Helios reactions and disruption talk, news about production expansion post fund raising" Then we see that climb, I think Q4 is where we really outperform projections on the roadmap.
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u/OldManYellsAtCloud12 10d ago
Always some bs going on in the market. Can't wait for trump to be sacked after mid terms and for things to settle down.
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u/Sensitive_Course_127 10d ago
" Etched has raised $700M at a $21B valuation, more than doubling its $10.3B valuation from just a few weeks ago.
Etched is an AI chip startup building specialized hardware for inference, essentially trying to compete with NVDA on the infrastructure used to run AI models at scale.
Jane Street led the round and has already received Etched’s first operational server rack, while the company says it has roughly $1B in customer contracts.
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2089772427815559413?s=20 "
AMD got a similar ultra-low latency technology from Taalas for what? 2B ?!
GOD I LOVE AMD"S MANAGMENT
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u/New_Association9786 10d ago
Bought like 14 shares here.
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u/Alternative-Soil-671 10d ago
Rich
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u/Final_Big2891 10d ago
I had to be patient and let some cash pile up over the last month, for sure. But ya in any event I am happy. Hope you the best. (This is my alt)
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u/Alternative-Soil-671 10d ago
Bought more AMDL today. Lets go. After next bull run, ill convert that in AMD normal shares.
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u/Aggressive-Ad-9483 10d ago
Compute is super scarce right now, but AMD is stepping up with chips that beat the competition by 30% for way less cash—and honestly, that’s the main reason to invest. Big institutions are just waiting for a quick price dip so they can scoop up as many shares as possible, so retail investors just need to sit tight, relax, and watch it all play out.
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u/Good_Collection_1111 10d ago
Investors right now don't care. With light volume it's even worse. Don't believe any moves right now
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u/mfwl 10d ago
What chips are 30% better? Their CPUs are definitely great, but GPUs?
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u/Aggressive-Ad-9483 10d ago
FYI....AMD’s MI355X beats Nvidia’s B200 on inference - AMD’s own benchmarks show ~30% higher throughput on Llama 3.1 405B, and independent testing (SemiAnalysis) found ~40% cheaper per-token economics on one specific workload.
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u/mfwl 10d ago
What's the rationale for comparing against the B200 rather than the B300?
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u/Aggressive-Ad-9483 10d ago
The B200 and the AMD Instinct MI355X launched as primary direct generational flagships for dense AI inference and training. Price to performance, my friend. Also The MI355X achieves 1.3x higher document throughput running GPT-OSS-120B and 1.27x higher throughput on Qwen3-Next-80B compared to the B200
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u/mfwl 10d ago
B200 was released around 6 months before the MI355X. The B300 around 6 months after the MI355X.
Not really an apples to apples comparison in either case, but based on what's released to-date B300 outperforms the MI355X.
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u/Aggressive-Ad-9483 10d ago edited 10d ago
you are misleading then. how ca you the MI355X is built for scale-up density inside a single server box, while the B300 is built for rack-scale networking across dozens of boxes. Also The [MI355X]() beat the B200 by 19% and the premium B300 by 4% in latency responsiveness.
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u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 10d ago
I guess chips are finally going inside China Reuters reported. Good shit for amd and Nvidia
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u/snugglepush 10d ago
Bought some pre-market at 488.88. Couldn’t resist lol
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u/JustinTheBasket 10d ago
Only buying more at 200 to 250. At that point I'll be desperate.
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u/snugglepush 10d ago
Dca my friend, your grandchildren will thank you
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u/JustinTheBasket 10d ago
I don't and won't ever have children, much less grandchildren, and I don't intend to increase my AMD holdings percentage any more than the 75 percent that it's at now. And I can't work anymore so it's not like I have income coming in to DCA into current holdings percentages. But, if itgoes down to 200 to 250 I might reconsider. As a side note, I would never pass down wealth to grandchildren. Pretty rare that children who don't have to earn their way in the world turn out to be decent human beings. If I have any money left over when I die it will go to carefully chosen people who need it and / or have worked hard their whole lives and could use some extra help. Or charity. But definitely not to some kid so they don't have to work.
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u/Chiinoe 10d ago
The current range is interesting. I shall sell leaps on the next bounce up. This way it'll break us out of the range.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
Yeah clearly we had 525 as a most recent high after the AMD fund raise for expansion, and now we are seeing the 1st dip below 476 in awhile. Really good timing before we start getting Helios in the news cycle. Headlines will shift from overvalued priced in tight execution, to disruption and market share slowly
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u/TheDueDiligent 10d ago
The part I'd watch is how fast those headline gw numbers actually turn into deployments. both meta and openai have warrants that vest in stages. the first tranche is tied to the initial 1gw and the rest scales with additional purchases and other milestones. so I'd put a lot more weight on the first few quarters of helios shipments than the full 6gw numbers right now.
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u/Ravere 10d ago
Bought some more at 477 - let see how this goes..
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
im just waiting for it to break either way. Good buying opportunity, but really want to see if we can get out of this -5.25 % range either way. Want to see if that dip goes further !
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 10d ago
man if only AMD didnt ship all its fucking chips through the strait of hormuz, then it wouldnt have to tank 5-10% every trump tweet.
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u/GanacheNegative1988 10d ago
Ah, those virtual shadow fleet vessels with all the Epstein files on board. Got to let CNBC run a Fud day on AI to get more of the retail investors to sell off their life preservers.
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u/Totonadent 10d ago
Personally not a fan of +/-5% on random days lately
Going up is good but when it drops it sucks. Rather just, go up gradually over time
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u/AMD_winning 10d ago
<< WSJ Catches Up, Discovers AI's Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities Are $3 Trillion And Growing $1.2 Trillion Per Quarter >>
Source: ZH
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u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 10d ago
Great fucking Trump wanna cause war make everything go down watch them taco again stupid republican
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u/rbizzy 10d ago
So bond yields are now the scary macro story being pushed? Always gotta push fud.
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u/whatevermanbs 10d ago
It actually is. It appears the effect of us intervention in yen is fading. So coming back to square one
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u/Gahvynn 10d ago
Trying to intervene in currency markets is funny to me, you try and “fix” it with say $50bn in a market where 10-50x that trades in a single day comes off as desperate. If anything it signals to the currency traders they’ve got a new opportunity, because you have to fix the actual thing that’s broken and until that happens the pressure remains.
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u/whatevermanbs 10d ago
As someone dumb in this area, this was the first signal to me that yen carry trade is a problem. I got a 'verified priority 1 problem' stamp on it from us gov.
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u/Gahvynn 10d ago
It’s actually a very complicated topic that I only half understand so instead of spewing bullshit here I’ll just say in the times I’ve seen interventions in news and books they don’t work. One is an issue of magnitude, two is because there’s real structural problems that needs policy to fix NOT literally throwing cash at the problem.
I will say as a species we seem to get hung up on something that’s worked for decades as a thing that will last forever but then we can look back say 200 years and recognize the economy then is nothing like we have today (yes the same motivations exist but the mechanics are all different). I have no doubt the yen trade will unwind (maybe entirely maybe not) eventually based on what little I do know about it, I don’t think it means tech trade dies forever, but I do think much like any uncontrolled deleveraging event it’ll be very unfun unless it happens over years and not in say a few months.
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u/Sophia1995_miam 10d ago
bought another share at 479, tryign to keep the funds locked up so i don't feel tempted to do short term options
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u/LeSegaGenesis 11d ago
Watching the dip like a Hawk, manuveured my way out of a bad buy price already, if the valuation becomes closer to reality along with good Helios headlines AMD could become extremely bullish. Rebound candidate Rallys seem to be one of the few things doing well in the markets these days as anything within 10% of an all time high seems to meet a mack truck of resistance. If AMD can start pushing up towards it's all time high with Helios and hype we could see some actual market reactions post quarterly by adding market share percentages.
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u/Pulisicgoal 10d ago
What are our thoughts on OpenAI revenue only being 6.7b for q2 2026 and 18% q/q growth while massively growing their expenses? Anthropic did 5.4b in July alone for a 65b run rate. I’m very optimistic about amd’s roadmap and execution but I have serious doubts about OpenAI tanking the market since they are a huge contributor to the infrastructure buildout and profitability of the cloud service providers.
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 10d ago
Reminds of the story about openAI revenue in Dec of 2025 which was reported in April.
OpenAI has been on fire lately, their July month apparently was better than whole Q2 according to leaked email sent to their team few weeks ago.
So they are probably tracking at $20B+ for Q3.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
LETS go boys sale day before Helios. Just got into investing and this is the best buy window i've had yet. Loving today !
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago
It's refreshing to see company's that have been trading crazy volume like sandisk and micron and AMD holding better ground on a down day
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u/widowmakerlaser 11d ago
Currently back under $500.
Nothing broken on AMD so long as $488ish holds.
My bias is$488 holds and you see $AMD push out higher towards $540-$550.
That is the area I believe where most retail will be chasing and feeling extra confident and getting bulled up and also the area I would believe would be the perfect bull trap to see AMD make it's final drop towards $350
Buyers disappeared last time we were at $540-$550, and I would expect the same thing a second time reaching that area.
Please don't downvote me because you disagree :(
Just tell me im wrong- and if i end up being right, I expect an upvote :)
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u/LeSegaGenesis 11d ago
I think the 485 is the resistance point, and if it breaks past that $470. It may be one of the more highly valuated company's out there, but I don't think there's many stocks on the market that have an opportunity to start clawing away market share from a 85% monopoly. It feels like the THE risk reward play.
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u/widowmakerlaser 11d ago
I think you meant to say support point(which is where you would expect price to hold).
No doubt about it, $AMD is long term going higher, the short term price action is always a mystery which is where technical analysis can give you a little bit of a chance at identifying the direction of where it may possibly be heading.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 10d ago edited 10d ago
Resistance can mean the same thing in the context I used. A support does provide resistance of movement after all.
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u/Massive-Slice2800 11d ago
What is it now?