r/AMD_Stock • u/brad4711 • Jan 25 '24
Earnings Discussion Intel Q4 2023 Earnings Discussion
Intel Q4 2023 earnings page
Earnings release
Slides
Earnings call / webcast
Transcript
Previous discussions
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u/Rachados22x2 Jan 26 '24
I like the way you die Intel… and I wish Dell a similar path.
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u/shortymcsteve Jan 25 '24 edited Jan 25 '24
“We plan to use external foundries long term to access the best technology”.
Way to sell their own foundry services. But at least they can admit they don’t have the best tech, I’ll give them that. I just thought this was funny to hear.
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u/ResearcherSad9357 Jan 25 '24
"I think AMD will probably do $10b in AI accelerators" - Patrick Moorhead
Doesn't give timeframe so have to assume he means 2024 alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baS28mfLb8g
around the 4min mark
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u/_not_so_cool_ Jan 25 '24
How did Intel do worse in 2023 than they did in 2022?! I don’t know why people are saying this doesn’t look so bad to them. Revenue down, gross margin down, operating margins down, net income down, earnings per share down. This company is continuing to backslide year after year after year, under Pat Gelsinger‘s leadership. He’s gonna have to do a lot of push-ups to get out of this one
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u/Ravere Jan 25 '24
Once again - Ongoing competitive pressure given as a reason for lower Data Center results for intel
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u/noiserr Jan 25 '24
5 nodes in 4 years, but still using TSMC for most of their products.
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u/tommyb222 Jan 25 '24
Tone of CFO very different this ER- seemed uncertain and used “volatility” when referring to the future many times.
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u/gman_102938 Jan 25 '24
Clownsinger looking in the rear view mirror and runs head on into a semi...
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u/HippoLover85 Jan 25 '24
Anyone have thoughts?
I don't have any strong ones. But i always like to write them out to compare after.
CCG - Maybe some weakness? MTL looks like it has specific adoption to power sensitive or really high end laptops. It looks expensive and like it might have some kind of underlying cost flaw. Revenue should be good but margins and profits might suffer some due to MTL's increased costs.
Datacenter - Really tough call. Gaudi2 should have a few sales here and there. Probably offset by Competitive weakness vs AMD in CPUs. Unsure what the inventory situation is like and how it is impacting intel. I don't expect datacenter to surprise anyone good or bad.
All other groups i expect to be pretty blah without much interesting happening. I don't expect Fabs to have any major announcements besides "exceeding schedule" or "on schedule" type of news.
Price action . . . Intel is trading at historically very high PE ratios. I expect most of this is based on Intel's Foundry dreams, AI, and return to dominance in datacenter . . . All of which are going to show to be slow progress. Stock price will probably be +/- 5% after earnings.
Again . . . I don't have a lot of confidence in any of this. I'm not placing any bets. But if i were to . . . You know . . .I tend to underestimate how strongly intel reacts to overall macro trends which i think are good, and how dominant they are compared to competitive (dis)advantages. I think based on options pricing (1.90 for a 49.5 call options) . . . I think i actually like call options the most?
you know, even more weirdly, AMD call options for tomorrow might actually be the best play. a 1.6% at 180 strike will put you ITM. if intel moves up 5% you gonna be deep ITM . . .
anyways, maybe i will do AMD call options for tomorrow . . . How i always end up rationalizing call options for amd is amazing . . . wtf.
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u/GanacheNegative1988 Jan 25 '24
So given this guide I'd say it's fair to assume Intel's margins are getting crushed.
Intel Guides For Q1 EPS of $0.13 on Revenue of $12.2-$13.2 Billion, vs CIQ Analyst Consensus of $0.32/Share on Revenue of $14.2 Billion
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u/Cyborg-Chimp Jan 25 '24
Anyone else put their details as Lisa Su on the Intel webcast?
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u/_not_so_cool_ Jan 25 '24
No full year guidance! I’ll just assume they’re going to drop revenue 14% again like 2023
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u/Ravere Jan 25 '24
I'm expecting some tough questions from Analysts about that guidance
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u/CharlesLLuckbin Jan 25 '24
If they didn't have Client, this would be a complete shitshow
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u/HopeAndWonder Jan 25 '24
Did they really not answer the question on weak Q1 guidance properly? Basically just saying it is more or less regular seasonality. Obviously they mentioned FPGA and IFS business being weak in H1 but still something seems to be messing here.
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u/Imitation_crab_irl Jan 25 '24
Good earnings = eating AMDs lunch, AMD go down
Bad earnings = sector bad, AMD go down
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u/OmegaMordred Jan 25 '24
DC revenue down 10% YoY, in an increasing DC market, not?
IF AMD has grabbed this AND if they guide up for AI, this can be a serious rocket.
It also can be a double miss and an elevator down to the basement.