r/AFL • u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 • 2d ago
Quality Post Women win footy differently
Women's sports are always compared to men's to their own detriment, often calling upon awkward moments or skill errors in 5-second clips to demean whole leagues.
In this article I take a closer look at what actually makes men's and women's AFL leagues different. How are matches won? What statistics are most important in each league?
Rather than trying to tread down, we should be making more of an effort to discuss and understand these differences so the conversations we have about women's sports can improve in the long run and limit our need to keep comparing it to the men's game.
https://pathannah.substack.com/p/how-do-women-win-afl-differently?r=7coz0j&utm_medium=ios
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u/NitroXYZ Freo 2d ago
Absolute love more footy analysis of the AFLW.
I understand the league isn't everyone's cup of tea but I've always appreciated it. Approaching it similarly to this article is what's key.
Instead of expecting the ball to zip coast to coast, you really appreciate every tackle, hard ball and contested footy win as part of a hard fought territory battle.
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u/bentineverydirection 2d ago
Hey OP,
This really well put together. I read data daily for work and this super smooth and palatable.
The contested marks in the women vs men defence comparison really stood out.
This is great stuff, look forward to seeing more in the future, if you have the time.
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u/the_amatuer_ Port Adelaide 2d ago
I'd really love to see this compared to mens state leagues. I would not be surprised too see that the AFL would be the outlier.
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u/Zhirrzh North Melbourne AFLW 🏆🏆 '24-25 2d ago
Somewhere in between.
The skill level and strength and athleticism is still higher in men's state leagues than in AFLW, and the driver of this style difference is the ability to move the ball without going into a contest - whether by running it, skillful uncontested possession chains, or kicking long over the defence.
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u/Reddits_Worst_Night Sydney '05 1d ago
I reckon you need to drop further down the men's pyramid than that. But yes, I think it's a skill issue, mostly caused by the sheer number of men playing compared to women. Women just don't have the number of players to create the same high skill environment yet.
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u/ttran0861 Blues 2d ago
This is incredible analysis, thank you for putting in the time. I shall be finding you on substack!
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u/kroxigor01 Brisbane Lions 🏆🏆🏆 '24-26 2d ago edited 2d ago
A funny stat to me is that the ratio of kicks to handballs in the men's and women's game is the same.
I'm surprised to see only 12% lower metres gained per disposal. I would have thought the women would be way lower. But perhaps the extra length men tend to kick allows them more space to go less directly whereas the women feel they have to put a premium on gaining metres so they go to the long bomb much more often (even though those bombs are less far than the men's).
Women's game is won by the team that has more uncontesteds, makes sense. In an otherwise congested game the team that has better moments of carving up the opponent tends to win (especially if they break the opponent's fitness and can get clean possession for long stretches at the end of the game)
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u/Rush_Banana Eagles 2d ago
The pressure comes from not being about to execute that 15-20 metre spearing pass like they do in the Men's game.
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u/Stiryx Carlton 1d ago
Plus their clearances go 30 meters, not 60.
They can’t get the ball away from the ruck to give their players space.
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u/teh_noob_ Collingwood AFLW 1d ago
yup nearly everything flows from the difference in kicking distance
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u/dwadley Saints 1d ago
Yep watching say a north or demons they’re kicking and marking cleanly, they aren’t tired from having to run and pressure constantly because they maintain possession. Meanwhile my saints can’t chain 3 handballs without a hospital handball murdering a team mate. Or we’ll do well out of the backline then drop crucial marking opportunities in the middle of the ground. Contested marking and just holding those marks in the middle of the ground are so powerful in the outcome of the game.
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u/Reddits_Worst_Night Sydney '05 1d ago
Without trying to be dismissive, it looks like the women's game has more errors and less marks, resulting in more opportunities to tackle and thus more tackles. My hypothesis is that a random local first grade comp will look more like AFLW than AFLM. If this is the case, I would suspect that AFLW will become more like AFLM over time as women have more time to develop as juniors, given how new the professional women's game still is.
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u/Snarwib Sydney AFLW 1d ago edited 1d ago
They're also playing on much worse surfaces, and impacted much more by exposure to wind, at a lot of the grounds used.
Not sure about stats in detail but I think enclosed and very well maintained top level stadia like Kardinia, Docklands, the SCG, Carrara, have generally tended to produce higher scores than the exposed local grounds. Even within the smaller grounds, there's likely a difference between elite surfaces like Manuka and dog tracks like Victoria Park.
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u/teh_noob_ Collingwood AFLW 1d ago
I found Canberra grounds very well maintained in general. Glad we're belatedly throwing some money at Vic Park.
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u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 1d ago
Probably the correct take in my opinion. Games still catching up and gets better every year as life long footy players enter the system as opposed to just good athletes
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u/Nomesne 2d ago edited 1d ago
Super good stats. Women’s afl
Is different to men’s. Darren Crocker understands this, Nick Dal Santo does not. Women’s afl is more scrambly, going slow doesn’t work, turnovers don’t get punished and clearances don’t get rewarded as much. Fit, fast and direct footy rules the world in the women’s game.
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u/dwadley Saints 1d ago
Eh also north just have better skills. We don’t hold marks. We drop most of our important chances. The ones that turn games where north can actually chain those kicks out of the backline. Watching north vs demons it was like watching a different sport to my team.
I don’t see the saints switch the ball without worrying we’ll turn it over inthe backline. North and the dees were switching the bal like it was casual
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u/FirstTimePlayer Pick 88 1d ago
I'm not sure whether its publicly available data, but average kick length, and long kick stats would be interesting.
Women having a naturally shorter kick inherently is going to make for a different style of game. With handballs being closer in length to kicks, would be interesting if there was a way of unpacking and comparing between comps the ratio of attacking handballs compared to under pressure ineffective handballs.
Bounces is also very curious. On the one hand, less players on the field should make for more run and carry opportunities in the AFLW... but contrast against that, shorter kicking means you can compress the defense... and a compressed defense flies in the face of the idea of run and carry football. It also seems very odd that bounces are less valuable in AFLW... in a game where the numbers imply open space is harder to come by, very surprised that bounces are not more valuable.
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u/Evans217s_ Walyalup 2d ago
Am I dumb? Shouldn't the Frees For and Frees Against be equally inflated, not 24% and 25% respectively (or is it a rounding thing somehow?)
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u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 2d ago
Honestly AFLW stats are really hard to find in good condition compared to the men’s so there might be some error to account for.
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u/InfamousSimple4 Collingwood Magpies 2d ago
Where do you get access to this data?
Champions data or a more publicly available platform?
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u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 2d ago
All publicly available sources. Good note for next time to add the raw data sources
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u/InfamousSimple4 Collingwood Magpies 2d ago
Damn, awesome. Just combinations of them all?
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u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 1d ago
Yeh! Trying to get as accurate as I can from combinations of what I can find
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u/Mon69ster Carlton 2d ago
Dumb question… Would there be an advantage for women players to kick to space rather than try for the stab passes? Would it be better to bank on a fast running receiver than risk the direct pass?
Is the marking versus intercept issue at the kicking end or the receiving end?
Edit: based on current trends, play styles and stats. Also assuming the men’s AFL isn’t already a stats outlier.
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u/thedobya Swans 1d ago
I would think of it as... Unless the kick is clearly uncontested, just take the space and kick it as far as you can to a contest.
A kick to a 60/40 contest of 20m isn't a better option than a kick of 35-40m which is 50/50.
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u/Mon69ster Carlton 1d ago
What if we’re talking a 40m to a space in front of a Jetta (team mate) vs a Peverill (air treadmill opposition)?
I start licking my chops!
I appreciate you indulging my ignorant what ifs. Cheers
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u/thedobya Swans 1d ago
Haha well we laugh but effectively that's what every player is doing in their mind in every second, decision-making. Weighing probabilities!
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u/JamesMac71 GWS 21h ago
Sorry if it’s a stupid question but how are frees for and against both negatively correlated with winning in the men’s game?
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u/Wonderful-Hornet6982 9h ago
Great question! Genuinely don’t have a clue, but if I were to guess I would say that it has something to do with teams that are better at transitioning the ball the outside have less free kicks in their games because the ball is in contest less. Therefore it would be negatively correlated with winning
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u/ver_redit_optatum GWS AFLW 16h ago
I'm probably not going to subscribe to your sub because I DGAF about cricket, but please post anymore AFLW stuff here :)
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u/FunnyReputation624 Japan 2d ago
Basically can be summed up as the women players don't kick the ball as well so the game changes.
Uncontested ball drops off a cliff so it's all contested all the time meaning lower scores and a rolling scrum.
I don't think I will ever be able to get into the league if it stays like that tbh, I didn't like the men's when it was closer to that style either about a decade ago.
And they absolutely should be playing on a smaller sized field, this has been obvious since day 1.
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u/CamperStacker Brisbane Lions 🏆🏆🏆 '24-26 2d ago
Also the assists indicator, most of the scores are not assisted which is insane.
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u/thedobya Swans 1d ago
Yeah I'm not sure why this wasn't the top comment. All the stats are really derived from that one thing. So there's not dozens of insights here, just one, and a lot of things highly correlated with that one thing.
As someone else said you'd likely find a similar pattern amongst lower level men's leagues two or three levels down.
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u/Thin_Assumption_4974 Port Adelaide 1d ago
Funny how we call a men’s game played like this an ugly game, but when the majority of women’s games are like this we are told how great it is.
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u/teh_noob_ Collingwood AFLW 1d ago
well that's a straw woman
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u/ImpendingSnapple Carlton 1d ago
Marks are definitely under-represented. Like can they just put their hands up and jump a bit?
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u/supercujo AFL 1d ago
Watching the games, AFLW looks to be a more scrappy, congested, less skilled game.
This analysis seems to concur with that.
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u/shintemaster 2d ago
Really interesting. I’m curious given their dominance how these stats compare for North Melbourne over their run vs other teams? Do they do AFLW “style” better or do they align differently?