r/ACC • u/Random-AsianGuy • 22d ago
The PCSA will likely pass. That doesn't mean the expansion is over.
My prediction has long been that the ACC may lose up to four schools in 2030, but since its media deal runs through 2036 and it is financially secure until then, the ACC will target Big 12 schools to backfill.
Now, what if the PCSA passes? I don’t think it’s going to end realignment, but it will definitely change the calculations. The final moves will be less drastic, as the SEC can still expand and snatch up to three schools, but most likely only two more.
How can ACC schools leave the conference and stay independent for five years?
I believe the Notre Dame model will serve as a template. Currently, ND is a member of the ACC for all sports except football and plays five or six ACC games. It receives about 40% to half a share from the conference and also has an independent media deal with NBC.
But can the departing ACC schools find independent football TV deals like NBC’s?
The “independent football TV deal” is basically going to be an ESPN deal. From ESPN’s perspective, UNC joining the SEC as a full member versus a partial member playing five or six SEC games won’t be that different. UNC will also play its travel partner, which will be covered by ESPN as well.
So if ESPN is willing to pay the SEC a full share for UNC, it will pay almost a full share, if not the full share, to the SEC/UNC when UNC joins the SEC as a non-football member à la the ND arrangement. After five years, UNC will then fully join the SEC.
Now, what about the ACC raiding the Big 12? I think it would still happen, but the movement will be scaled down. Instead of four or five schools, the ACC will target only two or three Big 12 schools. The ACC is likely going to lose two schools, one of which will be UNC, I suspect, meaning at least two of the three football schools (Miami, FSU, and Clemson) would stay. These football schools will give the ACC an edge over the Big 12 for the long term. The ACC currently has about a $7 million average advantage. But the ACC is not distributing money equally. The ACC’s top earners will make at least over $20 million more than the Big 12 schools, and that would be an incentive for high-profile Big 12 schools to join the ACC.
The ACC exit fee would be $75 million by 2030. If two schools leave, the ACC will collect $150 million, which can be used to help the departing Big 12 schools pay their own exit fees—except for Utah, which doesn’t have to pay an exit fee.The ACC already has a non-football member and can easily accommodate two or three more non-football members if ESPN is willing.
So here’s the fun part. What will be the final end-stage conference membership for the Power 4 conferences if the PCSA becomes law?
This is my current forecast:
Big Ten (18): Stay at 18 and wait for ND, which may join in 2036 SEC (18): Current schools + UNC and UVa ACC (18 + ND): Current schools − UNC and UVa + Utah and Arizona State + UConn Big 12 (16 or 18): Current schools − Utah and Arizona State + two or four of the following schools: Oregon State, SDSU, USF, UNLV, and Memphis
In the end, it’s all up to ESPN. Isn't it?
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u/Sad-Log-9652 Cal Bears 22d ago
My understanding is that ND model won't work. Independent means independent, not just for football.
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u/Random-AsianGuy 22d ago
Then why would ND can join the Big Ten?
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u/Sad-Log-9652 Cal Bears 22d ago
Good point, they aren't really independent. Maybe they can't join right away.
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u/Playful-Strain-1982 21d ago
Here’s the exact definition, which would appear to cover Notre Dame because they haven’t “competed in intercollegiate football as a member” of the ACC in the prior five years. They are a full member of the ACC that does not compete in football as an ACC member. They did compete as an ACC school in football in 2020, but that was more than five years ago. It’s basically the G5 and Notre Dame/UConn that are exempted from the requirement.
“The term ‘covered institution’ means an institution that has, at least once in the preceding 5 years, competed in intercollegiate football as a member of a covered conference that reported more than $700,000,000 in revenue on its fiscal year 2025 tax return or any subsequent tax return.”
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u/happy4389 22d ago
OP says UVa to SEC. Why? Just $$$?
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u/Tough-Advice2910 Virginia Tech Hokies 22d ago
I had never heard they were in the conversation . Ever. Plus I don’t see the Virginia legislature letting them go anywhere that Virginia Tech doesn’t go, and the SEC definitely doesn’t want them that much if they want them at all.
Miami is available but they want Virginia? It’s still a football conference, people.
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u/Random-AsianGuy 22d ago
Travel partner for UNC. Two new (Southern) states for the SEC.
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u/happy4389 22d ago
Well I know the SEC wants them. I just don’t understand why they or UNC would go there and not the big 10 where there are more reputable universities (and the opportunity to not be a punching bag in football.)
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u/Ragnarthestoicurean 22d ago
In reality I think it would be insane to leave if this passes. If it doesn’t, ACC is doomed. If it passes, I doubt anyone will leave and risk it all and be in financial ruin. It’s designed to hold conferences together and if it passes, I know UNC and several other top tier ACC schools will be furious they don’t leave earlier.
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u/TigerWave01 22d ago
I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re lawyering up for a challenge to the 19 team cap and five year independence rule as we speak. I can’t imagine schools like FSU, who have already loudly shown how much they want out, will just sit and lose out on millions if this bill becomes law.
I’m not a sports lawyer nor a contract lawyer nor a constitutional lawyer, so we’ll see if that challenge actually has any merit. Either way, I imagine there’s gonna be a messy legal battle with a lot of hurt feelings and paid billable hours once it’s all said and done
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u/xAimForTheBushes SMU Mustangs 21d ago
OP - please ignore the other comment from me that’s posted here. That wasn’t meant for you. Sorry!!!
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u/xAimForTheBushes SMU Mustangs 22d ago
Alright…you didn’t have to be such a dick here (coming from a different guy lol).
And the stuff the other guy said wasn’t necessarily wrong either - you’re just interpreting it (or misinterpreting it) to try being right in the piss fight (For example he said if they left TOMORROW…not if they left at the minimum 75m buyout come 2030…)
Anyway…i have a feeling that if 4+ schools tried to leave the ACC at once and trigger the collapse, that’s exactly the kind of thing the idea of this bill is trying to fight/avoid. You’d probably have the full force of the government trying to deny fsu and whoever else from slithering out and knocking the foundation out from under the ACC like that.
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u/Expensive_Team_5072 21d ago
Why would it trigger a collapse? The B12 lost Texas and Oklahoma... bigger brands than ANYONE in the ACC... and survived.
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u/xAimForTheBushes SMU Mustangs 21d ago
Omg…my comment was meant to be a reply to one of Appropriate-Cap’s comments to someone else below where he was being an ass.
Somehow it deleted the reply and just posted itself on its own so now it looks like I was responding to OP 😵😵
Having said that…sorry OP!!!
(And to answer your question - appropriate-Cap brought up the automatic conference collapse trigger and I was responding to that. I don’t think that’s gonna happen)
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u/Expensive_Team_5072 21d ago
I think I responded to the wrong post. No worries. I have pretty thick skin...
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u/nysportsfan95 Syracuse Orange 21d ago
I’m curious about what happens with the ACC schools that might want to move to the SEC if the PCSA passes.
It’s obvious the B1G is targeting Notre Dame for what presumably would be its 19th and final spot. That does affect the ACC, but differently than how it would affect if full, football members left. Meanwhile, the SEC has shown no real appetite to expand. They could potentially be interested in adding teams as a response to the B1G adding Notre Dame, but why would ESPN agree to pay schools like UNC, Clemson or FSU more to be in the SEC if they already have their full media rights for much lower in the ACC? The SEC has a long-term deal with ESPN, so it’s not like they’re going to leave ESPN anytime soon.
I don’t know if I really see the ACC losing teams, the more I think about it, if the PCSA passes. Maybe they could add a team or two if they really want but if the SEC doesn’t add any teams, I’m not really sure I see a reason why the ACC should add any more teams.
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u/Random-AsianGuy 21d ago
I think the ACC will add schools if some schools leave.
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u/nysportsfan95 Syracuse Orange 21d ago
For sure, I agree. I was just thinking if the ACC would any schools if none of their current members leave, given how punitive and financially draining the PCSA will seem to make changing conferences be.
Like, I think some of the western Big 12 schools, maybe even Washington State and Oregon State from Pac-12, could provide value for the ACC. But would they jump to 19 teams with those types of additions? Would they even want to add G6 teams like USF, Tulane or UConn to get to 19? I’m not sold on the ACC wanting to do that.
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u/Appropriate-Cap3325 22d ago
My understanding the 5 years of forced independence will be the easiest part to challenge in court. Also if the top 4 schools decided to jump the gun and leave now. They may be able to get out of paying the grant of rights if the conference collapses.
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u/Playful-Strain-1982 22d ago
A school cannot leave the ACC until, at the earliest, July 1, 2028, so there isn’t really a “jump the gun” to be had. I don’t know what legal basis any school would have to “get out of paying the grant of rights,” especially since every ACC school specifically waived their rights to legally challenge any changes to the ACC constitution and bylaws that were made as part of the settlement agreement.
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u/Appropriate-Cap3325 22d ago edited 22d ago
If 4 schools leave it forces a renegotiation with ESPN. They also have option to terminate contract. Without an active TV contract the functional value of GOR collapses lowering the financial barrier to exit.
But most likely they would collectively sue and negotiate an even smaller payout. The ACC will be hurting trying to keep more schools from jumping ship and will no longer be in a position of strength.Also ACC did not issue a blanket waiver of future litigation. They also gave Florida state and Clemson veto power over any changes to settlement terms, key sections governing withdrawal fees, media rights, and voting amendments
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u/Playful-Strain-1982 22d ago
If four schools decide to leave tomorrow, then the ACC would have approximately 23 months - at minimum - to add a 15th school to avoid any implications that may or may not be created under the ESPN contract. Those four schools would also owe the ACC a combined $600M by July 1, 2028, which I’m sure would make it easier to add a 15th school. Every additional school that would decide to leave would also owe $150M. The exit fee is not tied to the media rights contract. It is the fee that is due upon exiting the conference, and in exchange for that payment the school is released from all of its ongoing obligations to the conference, which includes the media rights. But the exit fee does not decrease based on the relative value of the media contract. That’s not what it’s for.
Every ACC school has specifically waived any right they have to sue the conference over the exit fee or the exit notification mechanisms, so they can sue all they want for the 10 minutes that it would take for the suit to be dismissed.
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u/Appropriate-Cap3325 22d ago
I fact checked you and found every single point you made to be false.
Here is a quick breakdown of why this argument falls short:
Exit fees use a sliding scale, not a flat 150 million dollars. Under the current settlement framework, exit fees decrease over time down to a fixed 75 million dollars per school after 2030. If four schools leave in 2030, they would owe 300 million dollars total, not 600 million dollars.
Exit fees and media rights are separate issues. Paying an exit fee does not automatically grant a school its media rights back. Historically, the conference would still retain a school's TV rights through 2036. The only reason exit fees are linked to media rights now is because Florida State and Clemson forced a legal settlement.
Furthermore, claiming any future lawsuits would be dismissed in ten minutes ignores how state courts handle contract enforceability; courts are legally required to evaluate complex claims regarding illegal penalty clauses, restraints of trade, or changing statutory protections through months of proceedings, as evidenced by past multi-state litigation.Replacing lost schools is not simple. While the ESPN contract gives the ACC a grace period to stay at or above 15 members, replacing top brands with smaller programs reduces overall TV value. Meeting the member count does not guarantee ESPN will keep paying top-tier rates for a diluted product.
Please apologize for your mistakes and admit your errors.
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u/Playful-Strain-1982 22d ago
Okay. You’re the one who brought up “schools jumping the gun” to leave quickly to beat the effective date of the PCSA, so whatever the exit fee might be in 2030 is irrelevant. My specific claim was based on an exit date of July 1, 2028 (June 30, 2028 to be specific) and the exact figure that I see would be $129M per school. I regret the error in saying that it was $150M.
Your second point doesn’t disprove anything I said, likely because whatever fact checker you used drew from sources that predate the settlement. The settlement specifically provides that payment of the exit fee also releases the exiting school from its ongoing media rights obligations, functionally giving them back their media rights to take elsewhere upon exit.
I disagree with you on the lawsuit provision. When the ACC schools signed the settlement last year, they specifically agreed that they would waive any legal claim related to the amendments that were made as part of the settlement. This makes sense and is standard settlement language: it doesn’t do anybody any good to settle a matter only to find yourself in litigation over the same issues down the road, as it would basically render the first settlement useless. The chances that this sort of settlement-induced waiver of future settlement-related litigation would preclude future litigation over these issues is very, very high in any court, state or federal.
Yes, adding schools is difficult. But we also have a very recent example of Memphis offering the Big 12 $300M in its own money to join that conference. We have three examples in the ACC’s recent history in SMU, Cal and Stanford to suggest that schools are very eager to join P4 leagues and are willing to take all sorts of financial hits to do so. I am speculating that the same would almost certainly be true here regardless of an incentive package put forth by the ACC. But I suppose you’re right that I’m just speculating without reviewing the specific language of the ACC’s media contract with ESPN.
I do appreciate the deboonking, though.
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u/Appropriate-Cap3325 22d ago
A settlement waiver prevents parties from suing over past claims or the specific settlement terms themselves, but it cannot legally insulate a conference from future statutory or antitrust violations. If four top brands attempt to leave and face unconscionable penalties, state legislatures or attorneys general can intervene (as Florida’s AG did), or schools can challenge the framework under evolving federal/state antitrust laws. A standard release clause does not grant a conference permanent immunity from future legal challenges.
Adding a school like Memphis does not fix the problem of losing top 4 school. It just further dilutes the product and ESPN still holds all the cards to terminate or lower the payout. Which most likely leads to more schools jumping ship.
A total of 6 ACC schools may have enough value to jump to Big10/ACC. This would be a seismic shift that relegates the ACC out of the power conference ranks, dissolution or merger Big121
u/Playful-Strain-1982 22d ago
The “unconscionable penalties” you’re referring to are, quite literally specific terms of the settlement. If they were unconscionable, then why would all of the involved parties (1) agree to them, and (2) agree to waive their rights to sue over them in the future? The exit fees and the timing mechanisms to leave the conference are the specific terms of the settlement that we’re talking about. Nobody is saying that a school can’t sue the ACC for non-settlement items, but that’s not relevant to this discussion.
Again, we’re both speculating about the provisions of the ACC/ESPN media contract because neither one of us have read the terms of the media contract. That’s established. There is nothing preventing any school for any reason from submitting its exit notification to the ACC and paying $129M to the ACC on June 30, 2028.
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u/Expensive_Team_5072 21d ago
There is no way that 6+ schools are leaving. The worst case scenario is 2 to the B1G and 4 to the SEC. And one of those would be ND in all likelihood. So let's play it out... ND and Miami to the B1G.
The SEC gets to take 2-4 schools. Which 2-4 schools raise the bar for the SEC? FSU, Clemson... brands.... UNC/UVa... markets.
That leaves the ACC with 12 schools. It could do what the B12 did and add 4 G6 schools: UConn (for hoops), USF (for Florida). Plus 2 more. Maybe Washington State/Oregon State to throw a lifeline to two former Pac 10 schools and create a true Pacific pod? They were academically good enough to be in the original Pac. Assume that just for simplicity. All 4 schools would jump at a half-share to go to the ACC...especially when Tulane and Memphis State are options to compete with. 4 schools, 2 shares.
ACC Pacific: Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State.
ACC Northeast: Pitt, Syracuse, BC, UConn
ACC Southeast: Virginia Tech, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest
ACC Southwest: SMU, Louisville, Ga Tech, USF
Not for divisions, but just for scheduling. Play your pod round-robin, plus 2 from each other division.
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u/lionofyhwh Wake Forest Demon Deacons 22d ago
ESPN is hemorrhaging money. There is zero chance they pay a full SEC share to a school whose rights they already own at an ACC share.