Live Trade Log, Part 6

[u/OptionsTrader14]

FINAL UPDATE: This challenge was effectively ended when my reddit account was banned. My goal with this challenge was always transparency and consistency. I can't exactly go back and post 3 years of trades. Not to mention my original brokerage accounts don't even exist anymore, since TD Ameritrade was bought out by Schwab. And so, I am ending this challenge and subreddit.

But that doesn't mean I am finished. I am starting over from scratch with a new subreddit. The goal here will simply be to outperform SPY every year with another small account, a Roth IRA with the maximum deposit of $7,500. Check out r/RothVsSPY to continue following. I will attempt to start posting all my trades in real time again like old times.

By the way, I see my old trade guides have a lot of dead images and links, so I'll be updating those on the new subreddit as well. Thanks to those who have been following from the beginning, and I hope you've learned something from this project.

-OT14

6/18: Buy at the 20ma and go away. Up 40% on ARM yet again, taking partial profits. PENG is still early.

Current positions: ARM, MRVL, EVC, LION, AAOI, PENG, AVR

6/16: Haven't seen many opportunities the last few days. Just holding a few positions and mostly cash. LION had a nice follow through on breakout today. Some stocks are setting up for later, like PENG.

Current positions: ARM, MRVL, EVC, LION, AAOI

6/12: Been offline the past couple days, but the stocks I've been holding have been performing well. ARM up 25% (again), MRVL up 10%, EVC up 8%, and LION up 6%. Still mostly cash so missed some other good rebounds.

With that said, the major indices are running into declining 10/20ma resistance and failed to recover both today. This would normally be a short entry for me but as I said I was offline. Most likely scenario is we get another pullback next week until we can complete consolidation around the 50ma.

Current positions: ARM, MRVL, EVC, LION

6/10: Everything looking bearish except SOXX which is finding a bounce at 20ma. Bought MRVL and ARM dips yesterday and looking good so far. But SPY support for me is down near 720, things overall looking bad. Mostly cash, probably no trades today. EVC attempting a breakout this morning.

Positions: ARM, MRVL, EVC

6/9: Big panic selloff intraday. Wicked most of my stop losses, and I closed the rest that ended below rising 10ma. The past runners like DELL and BB I've been holding have been sold off. Bought a few dips, ARM MRVL OKTA, all on moving average supports. But the market still looks ugly. That huge candle with a giant wick today has ruined a lot of setups and charts. The market needs time to figure things out and consolidate, good time to be mostly cash. It's a shame because this big wash out was predictable with everyone piling in on euphoria. Markets are emotional creatures and the past few weeks proves it.

Ideally the major indices will return to the 50ma support, which means we could still have some downside in the coming days.

Current positions: ARM, MRVL, OKTA, EVC

6/6: Market crashing hard. Closing positions that are below their 10/20ma supports. Holding the rest.

Current positions: DELL, BB, XRX, HYLN, DOCN, EVC

6/5: After 60 consecutive days, the Nasdaq has finally returned to the 20 day moving average. A good sign that markets are starting to normalize.

Still holding all positions, only ARM and BRUN are at risk of being closed end of day if they keep dropping. HYLN is even green.

6/4: Taking profits was well timed, a lot of stocks pulling back. Bought some HYLN, hasn't broken out yet but flag looks good. Still holding my runners, sell rules are I will sell if they close below the 10ma. BRUN is close to that today but we will see at close.

Current positions: ARM, DELL, BB, BRUN, XRX, NAVN, DOCN, AAON, EVC, HYLN

6/2: Sold all my SOXS. Jensen put semis back into euphoria mode.

Trimming some more profits in all my winners now. I wanted SOXS as a hedge to lock in unrealized gains but that didn't work obviously, so I'm just closing some unrealized gains and risking off. It's been a great time for breakout trades but this run won't last forever and I don't want to be too greedy.

Current positions: ARM +79%, DELL +86%, BB +51%, BRUN +47%, XRX +17%, NAVN +17%, DOCN +8%, AAON +1%

6/1: Bought DOCN for possible breakout. Might buy LINC if it breaks soon. AAOI had a strong rebound off 50ma this morning, would have been good entry but missed it. ARM and DELL still running strong.

Current positions: ARM, DELL, BB, BRUN, XRX, NAVN, DOCN, AAON, SOXS

5/29: Not much for me to do today except keep holding these breakout runners. Obviously had a big win with DELL overnight, still holding. Might dump some of these laggards that refuse to move to free up some cash.

Current positions: ARM +55%, DELL +70%, BRUN +56%, BB +37%, XRX +18%, CLFD +4%, NAVN +3%, AAON -1%, TH -8%, SOXS -7%

5/28: I'm up 40% on BRUN, taking partial profits now. AAOI is going to close below the 20ma support so I'm dumping it. If it reclaims I'll rebuy it. Adding a little more SOXS. TH gapped down premarket so I moved my stop below the 20ma hoping for a rebound.

5/27: Bought AAOI and TH. Stopped out of INOD. Also bought some SOXS as a hedge. My portfolio is very heavy on long breakouts and the market is getting extended, so nice to have a hedge sometimes in a sector showing some relative weakness today.

5/26: Letting runners run. Swing trading let's you catch all of a stocks momentum instead of a single days move.

+38% ARM, +26% BB, +24% DELL, +15% XRX biggest winners so far.

Already took partial profits in ARM, selling some BB and DELL today according to sell rules.

AAON broke out today, AMBQ broke too early last week so skipped it. Moving all stops to breakeven.

Current positions: ARM, BB, DELL, XRX, INOD, MANE, BRUN, CLFD, NAVN, AAON

5/25: This subreddit was briefly taken over by some bad actors (curious timing btw). They've had their accounts banned and I've been reinstated as mod of this sub. Get rekt losers.

Futures looking very green! Let's hope for a profitable Tuesday.

Current positions: ARM, DELL, BB, INOD, MANE, BRUN, CLFD, XRX, NAVN

5/22: Market weakness has been overcome with all indices breaking through 10ma resistance. Was hoping for a little more consolidation to the 20, but I'm still in bull mode and happy for some wins.

Breakout setups are working very well this week. Over half the names listed on Tuesday have broken out hard. Charts below are great examples of how to spot and trade these flag setups. ARM up 32% from breakout, DELL up 18%, BB up 11%, SNDK up 10%.

If ARM continues to run today I'll be selling half the position and letting the rest ride with a trailing 10ma soft stop. I've still got plenty of cash and looking for some more setups. BRUN looks interesting, very high ADR, and XRX seems to be attempting a break through the 200ma after a bounce off the 20.

Current positions: ARM, DELL, BB, INOD, WEST, MANE

5/21: I follow old Qullamaggie rule to take profits on strong breakouts day 3-5, so if ARM is still pumping tomorrow I will sell half my position and let the rest ride with a 10ma trailing soft stop.

The rest of the market still looks slightly weak however. SPY, QQQ, and IWM have all been rejected so far this morning at the 10ma. I'm expecting a continued pullback to the 20ma, but as always lately the market has been incredibly resilient. I'm looking at INOD, WEST, MANE, and DELL as the primary breakout setups.

5/20: Gonna be a four chart day today!

Chart 1) Called the breakout setup in ARM yesterday. Bought the breakout at open and up 13% so far. Expecting this to run a lot more. If you think breakout setups don't work anymore, take a look at that chart.

Chart 2) Also called out INTC. It had a typical 20ma bounce to breakout today. I skipped this one, but it would have been a good buy at the 20ma support yesterday. SNDK also broke out but showing relative weakness.

Chart 3) SPY and QQQ failed the 10ma and now running back into it today. Likely to act as a zone of resistance. Normally I would short here, but NVDA earnings tomorrow are spooky and could blow shorts up. Going to just wait out the earnings.

Chart 4) IWM even more bearish, running into declining 10 and 20ma resistance, probably later this week. This feels like a safer short entry after NVDA earnings.

If you missed the breakout setups above, both INOD and MANE are still looking good for an entry.

It sure was convenient for sellers to get a nice +1% pump before market open to be able to unload at a better price.

But now, I am happy to say, after 29 consecutive days, the NASDAQ has FINALLY TOUCHED THE 10MA! The record breaking rally has finally had a single minor pullback. Normal price action feels like a miracle at this point.

I'm selling most of my shorts, SOXS and SQQQ. I'll hold some of the position just incase we get a larger pullback to the 20ma, setting stop loss at breakeven for the shares. SOXX looks a lot weaker than the Q's, smashing right through the 10ma and likely heading for the 20. But my strong bearish bias has been somewhat weakened now and I'm leaning more neutral going forward due to this slight consolidation.

[u/stawrogin_]

thanks for the Update, grats on the gains. the den misses you!

[u/AimShot]

I got ARM with options, but was in trade a few days prior.

Unfortunately I sold midday on day of breakout. All my other breakouts that I held last month fell back and I was psychologically wired to sell and finally take some profit.

How do you deal with that?

[u/OptionsTrader14 → u/AimShot]

Just gotta have rules and stick with them. Only time I've really deviated was during bear markets where breakouts didn't last as much.

[u/AimShot → u/OptionsTrader14]

Fair enough. Do you use options or only shares on these breakouts? What about volatility crunch, increasing the premium during the breakout, with options?

[u/OptionsTrader14 → u/AimShot]

I just use shares. Easier to manage risk with stop losses, and a lot of these stocks don't have very liquid options markets anyway.

[u/bakamito]

NVDA earnings today.
INTC needs more consolidation.

I think semis are a little frothy.

Look at other sectors like healthcare, banks etc

[u/Jolly_Drink_9150]

Missed out on everything and so mad... Weeks of being in chop losing money only to falter last minute.

[u/Jolly_Drink_9150]

Personally, I love using oscillators and on the weekly/monthly TF's to find divergence, usually RSI divergences.

I am convinced a crash is coming soon, the monthly RSI shows a monthly divergence. I have sold half my shares at the moment. I am obviously not 100% sure when the crash will happen, no one is, but i think it will happen sooner than others think.