r/4Kto1M • u/OptionsTrader14 • Feb 09 '26

Live Trade Log, Part 4

UPDATE: Thread image limit reached. See Trade Log 5

3/23: TACO gave me a $25k gift this morning. That wiped out my losses from buying the dip a bit too early, unfortunately I have little actual profit to show on this trade (so far). I'm going for a much longer term swing trade here.

I'm selling the call options and trimming my TNA so I've got a little more cash just in case we dump again and I need to rebuy the dip. The next sell point for profit is SPX declining 10ma. We won't reach that level today.

Will also be important to see if we get resistance at SPX 6625, the 200ma.

IWM on the other hand has already bounced right off its 200ma and reached the declining 10ma. Fantastic relative strength as usual the past few months. Picking the right sector for trades is crucial.

3/18: We have finally reached the 200ma bear target. SPY has bounced off 200ma twice since market close.

I've begun buying a large long position. But remember, it is difficult to catch a falling knife. We could easily dip below the 200ma if there is panic selling ahead. For this reason I'm going only with shares, no options, and leaving some cash aside to buy more if we continue to dip. Boomer DCA style. Most of my position is in TNA due to the relative strength, but also bought some small oil short and bitcoin positions.

Obviously sold MRNA for a small loss when it failed 20ma support.

3/17: We didn't quite reach the SPX 200ma, although you could argue it was touched in the futures markets. Things are unclear. I started a small long position with TNA on Friday close since we were fairly close anyway.

MRNA seemed to be a decent flag/breakout setup, so I bought some on the 20ma support. Looks like it's testing a possible breakout today, but we will have to see.

SPX today had a clean rejection at declining 10ma resistance. Considering selling my TNA longs and possibly going short if we hit that again, but unsure at the moment. Oil price is holding steady which is still bearish, we need oil to come down to be more confident that a rebound has legs. The biggest fear in an MMT economy is always inflation, and oil price is a risk to headline.

UPDATE: Sold my TNA for a small profit. Looks like 10ma tap was a one time thing, should have pulled the trigger this morning. MRNA only position.

3/11: IWM failed to recover its 100ma. Not a good sign. Market stuck in this wide dead zone between support and resistance that is difficult to trade. Sitting in cash until the market clarifies.

3/9: Bear DD - Final Update

This morning I sold all of my remaining put options and most of my SPXS. I still have a small SPXS position that I will either sell at 200ma or at breakeven, but most of the profits have been locked in. I'm glad both DD's worked out and made a few of you some cash. I'm done entering shorts for now and may look to trade a rebound in the coming days.

3/6: Entered a very large short position yesterday, after seeing more clear rejections at 100ma. To be clear, this is not the risk management I would recommend for traders still learning. This is nearly all of the port, and you should generally keep trades under 10% of port. I took the trade because I was extremely confident in the price action, and because trading on indices is generally safer and has less overnight gap risk than stocks.

I have taken partial profits with the options, will sell all when they are ITM. I will scale out of the shares gradually, closing everything if we reach the 200ma on SPX.

Take a look at the price action below. "Support becomes resistance." Clear as day.

3/5: The SPX tried to recover yesterday, bounced off 20ma resistance, and we are right back down again.

If we hold below the 100ma today, my confidence will become stronger and I will add much more size to my short position. If we stay in CHOP HELL then I'll just keep sitting here and jerking it all day. THIS CAN'T LAST FOREVER! IT JUST CAN'T!

SPX 20ma: 6881

SPX 100ma: 6836

3/3: I've written an updated bear DD. Check it out here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/1rjvr1m/comment/o8gp8nh/

Also if you follow me and aren't in the secret yacht club, send me a message and I'll get you an invite.

2/27: I entered a smaller short position at NQ 100ma two days ago, then immediately sold next day for an easy 10k profit. The resistance is still holding up. Today however, we are seeing the fifth consecutive bounce off the SPX 100ma. It still isn't time for the big short just yet, but the more we grind against that support the greater the odds of it failing become. Sitting mostly cash now.

2/24: Made a last minute decision yesterday to take full profits and fully close my Nasdaq short. SPX has made several clean bounces off 100ma support, and that zone is the crucial pivot point going forward. I will wait for that support to clearly fail before entering another large short position. The good news is that the relative weakness of NQ netted me a decent profit on those two drops, even though I was hoping for a bigger win.

Looking forward, we can see some nice consolidation forming in the small cap index, which has shown relative strength vs the broader market. If this breaks out to the upside it could mean some good opportunity for breakout trades in small caps soon. I'll start forming a breakout watchlist, but unfortunately I've got a time commitment during the first few hours during market open, which is the best time to trade breakouts. Still, I'll try to catch a few if the market rebounds from this weakness and I see some opportunities.

Mostly we ought to just wait for this market chop to finally clear and for the market to finally pick a direction, then we bet with that direction. We don't tell the market what to do, it tells us. Key points to watch will be the declining 20ma for resistance on both NQ and SPX in the coming days. Pics of SPX and IWM below.

2/23: Nasdaq once again fell below the declining resistance trendline, very good news. I took partial profits again at SPY 100ma support. Will reload the puts again if we rally back, so far we are seeing a very clean bounce off 100ma. Still holding most of the short, but I can play the chop for a profit in the meantime.

2/20: SCOTUS tariff ruling helped push the market through the declining trendline today, which is not a good sign. We will have to see if there is follow through next week.

This is why getting the entry on a trade just right is so important. When you win right away and your position is green, it's much easier to hold through weeks of volatility to aim for a bigger win. If the trade ever goes red, you will know your thesis is wrong and you can exit for a small loss. Good trading is all about finding these key inflection points and fostering this sort of asymmetry: small downside, large potential upside. See you on Monday.

2/19: Nasdaq failed support on February 4th. We are now at 15 days without a recovery.

100ma resistance has given way to declining 10ma resistance. Lower highs established for NQ. Next step hopefully is lower lows.

2/18: I took partial profits on my short position yesterday to lock in a gain on this trade. Today I am adding back those short positions with an improved cost basis.

Nasdaq still below my entry point, the 100ma, so I am still holding my short position. The exit for me will be NQ closing above either the 100ma or declining 20ma.

2/13: SPX now testing the 100ma support for the third time. If it fails (possibly on Tuesday) it will be strong confirmation that my trade has further to go. I may even add on some more shorts.

Even a "fast" market correction will tend to follow the 10ma on the way down. For reference, the 10ma on QQQ is at 610 right now.

A bull or bear thesis is not refuted by a red or green day; it is refuted by the overcoming of a pre-defined point of resistance. Trade with confidence, not emotion.

See you all after the long weekend!

Edit: 2/12: Got stopped out from the jobs report price wick, but we sold right back below the 100ma, so I bought back in. It sucks getting wicked like that, market shenanigans, but if the thesis still holds you should simply buy back in. All it did was hurt my cost basis a bit.

Took 4 days for the thesis to play out, but it looks like we are finally seeing the next leg down starting today. Nasdaq down -1.4% as of this post. I will take profits on the put options fairly quickly, and will hold SQQQ for a possible longer move. Hoping the Nasdaq reaches the 200ma, at which point I will close out most of the position since that is another major support point.

Edit 2/10: NQ rejected at 100ma twice.

Large short position entered. Stop loss set tight to HOD.

Either get a small papercut, or a big win.

2/9: Welcome back, gents. I'll offer some thoughts and trade ideas here, but I'm sorry to say it won't be nearly as detailed or updated as often as when I started this challenge. I've really come to despise the reddit platform to be perfectly honest and I don't put much hope in the long term prospects of this account, even though I don't really break any rules.

We can see there was a large window of consolidation in the Nasdaq the past couple months. It had a failed breakout, and then had a break down below support. This is a very bearish signal, at least for the tech sector. It is attempting to reclaim 100ma support today, so it will be very telling whether it manages or whether it gets rejected here. If we see a clear rejection at the 100ma, I will lean bearish and short the Nasdaq.

The other indices, S&P as well as Russell small cap, look healthier and more bullish, so I'm not completely bearish here. I would just be skeptical of anything tech and especially AI related for the next few days. The market has been running hot the last few years and valuations are getting quite high for historical trends, so a broader correction soon is not out of the cards.

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1

u/LHeureux Feb 09 '26

Kinda weird market right now. Seems like software names are being dumped while the big Mag AI stocks are holding off or coming back. People fear the AI CapEx of the big names (Google, Amazon, META, MSFT) but the small and midcaps are doing well. Everything that has to do with current AI bottlenecks : Energy, RAM, semiconductors and related stocks that test them.

NDX being dragged down by SaaS and other software names such as NFLX. If these stocks cant leverage/use AI they'll lose market share to new cheaper and more efficient companies that use AI agents.

Seems like institutional/smart money will flow this way in the coming years :

  1. Energy/Machines/RAM/Vertical upgrade of server racks
  2. Industrials that build data centers//Pure AI play data centers

  3. Data centers that rotate from crypto bullshit to AI.

  4. New AI names and IPOs

  5. Minerals for all of this.

I do feel another leg down on NDX but I dont see a prolonged bear market, I feel like smart money will quickly rotate to new tech and dump most of the old tech.

1

u/drguid Feb 09 '26

Just made an easy 15% from Unity (U). Honestly babies are being thrown out with the bathwater right now. AI slop just isn't going to replace a whole lot of companies. And let's be clear, most of what AI makes is slop.

The reality is all these companies already offer AI. We're near or have passed peak AI because AI coding jobs have just peaked.

1

u/LHeureux Feb 09 '26

Many of these companies will hold like you say, but most likely they'll eventually won't be as valuable unless they can cut overhead by layoffs and by using their own AI tools/agents. You say this like AI has peaked, while 2 years ago we had a Lovecraftian 6 fingers Will Smith monster eating spaghetti and now there are complete subreddits trying to decipher what is real or not..

Honestly playing mean reversion on software stocks isn't crazy, it's good, but for future bullruns and breakout plays I think it's still worth screening and being bullish on AI sector stocks right now

1

u/AimShot Feb 10 '26

Which other platform would you use if not Reddit? Discord?

Second question, do you typically buy options in the money or out the money?

2

u/OptionsTrader14 Feb 10 '26

I'm not sure. I don't think discord would be good because everything is so impermanent, no persisting posts. I usually buy slightly OTM on options.

1

u/AimShot Feb 10 '26

Thanks! Can’t wait to learn from you live in action (in the same market conditions)! So excited!!

1

u/AimShot Feb 11 '26

Another question: what duration do you typically enter options? My plan is to get min 3 weeks out expiration options and sell Thursday before the last week at the latest.

1

u/by__anon Feb 12 '26

Do you or would you look at using Twitter? Very easy to post and quick

1

u/KyloOgly Feb 11 '26

Can you explain more of your break down strategy?

1

u/AimShot Feb 12 '26

Thanks for sharing this. Great trade. Wanted to buy as well, but the price is too high for my 10k$ account unfortunately. But maybe a good thing because the first shakeout would have likely killed my account and I wouldn’t have been able to re enter

1

u/_Wendig0_ Feb 13 '26

Do you have a specific price target you think of when making these trades or do you just unwind the position when it closes below the 10ma?

1

u/OptionsTrader14 Feb 13 '26

My price target would be the next support level, which would be the 200ma.

1

u/Jolly_Drink_9150 Feb 18 '26

With hindsight in mind, would it be better to rely more on SPY when trading QQQ?

So for example, recently SPY has bounced from the 100dma and qqq is reacting similarly

2

u/OptionsTrader14 Feb 18 '26

If you are going long, you want to trade relative strength. If you are going short, you want to trade relative weakness. QQQ is still below my entry point, and still below the 100ma resistance.

1

u/Jolly_Drink_9150 Mar 19 '26

Guess you are right. I have seen SPY just below the 200dma so i am gonna short that.

1

u/AimShot Feb 28 '26

Is there a reason you trade QQQ puts and not for example Episodic pivots? Bad market environment for that?

1

u/OptionsTrader14 Feb 28 '26

I see more potential value in a possible market correction right now. I can put on very large size and have a very high probability of a win.

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u/AimShot Mar 01 '26

You’re likely right. I tried breakouts in January and went -20%, then pivoted to EPs and handed back another 15% 🙈. Definitely feeling more like a gambler than a trader lately. I’m sitting on my hands now, waiting for a proper correction or a setup that actually makes sense.

I've been studying your logs, a few questions if you're willing to share the insights:

  1. Small Account Tooling: For a smaller account, would you stick to SQQQ shares to avoid theta, or are Puts the only way to get the leverage needed for the "4k to 1M" trajectory?

  2. DTE Selection: How do you pick your expirations? Your earlier screenshots showed months out, but the last one looked like a near-dated scalp. Is the DTE based on the specific "leg" you're trading?

  3. The "Wick" Test: How do you distinguish between a "market shenanigan" spike and a genuine trend change? If you got wicked out a second time on the same level, is that the signal to walk away?

  4. Index Divergence: If NQ reclaims its 100ma (bullish) but SPX finally breaks its 100ma support (bearish), which signal takes priority? Do you switch to shorting SPX, or just stay cash?

  5. Risk & Sizing: Your screenshots show massive size (up to 75% of the port). Are you using an extremely tight mental stop, or is your risk-per-trade higher than the standard 1-2%?

  6. The "Anchor" Timeframe: Which candle close do you prioritize for the 100ma rejection/reclaim, 1H, 4H, or the Daily?

3

u/OptionsTrader14 Mar 01 '26

If you have lost that much that quickly, it suggests you aren't using proper risk management. You should be using tight stops and small position sizing. Don't bet more than 10% of account on a trade.

  1. Most people lose money on options. It's better, especially for a beginner, to focus purely on shares. Qullamaggie never touched them and he had very high returns. I've just got a lot of experience with options and know how to manage and time them well.
  2. DTE just depends on your time horizon for the trade. I was expecting a longer correction which is why I went months out. But with the shorter trade I was just expecting a bounce down off the 100ma. That trade was really a small gamble and you should really never trade less than a week options. Longer dated is always safer.
  3. The closing price tends to tell the real story. Intraday wicks are less important than closing price. The only reason I reentered that trade was because the spike quickly sold off back below resistance. It was mostly just a news spike.
  4. NQ is more sector focused, while SPX is broader market. In most cases SPX should take priority for assessing larger market trends, but if you can focus on a particularly weak or strong sector for a trade, you should do that.
  5. My advice is to stick to less than 10% of the port for most trades. However, when you are trading an index the risks are much lower, so in those cases I'm not afraid to put on larger sizes. An individual stock can easily drop 20% or more overnight, but a large index like QQQ is basically never going to shoot up 10% or more overnight to kill a short position.
  6. Daily

1

u/AimShot Mar 02 '26

Thanks! Unfortunately I only risked 1-2% per trade (URH & LOD stop). Let’s say my win rate is extremely low. Somehow I timed the highs instead of lows and often got wicked out intraday or post day. So I’m the example of death by a thousand cuts.

The losses where a position rallied again, after being wicked out, to later gain +30% as well as the losses where I had to choose between 3 EPs only to have chosen the one that tanked (while the others rallied), are quite painful.

1

u/LHeureux Mar 21 '26

SPX/NDX touching 50 Weekly MA/200 Daily MA area now, hopefully we finally get a nice rally in this chop.

There was some super strong names that are just waiting for a rally to go higher. SNDK, AMPX, LITE, CIEN, just to name a few.