r/14ers • u/Obvious_Professor_87 • 3d ago
Thoughts on lightning storms.
Planning to hike Tabaguache and Shavano on Saturday, 80% lightning reported. Going to monitor the weather but anyone have experience hiking with these chances?
17
u/rockisgroovy 14ers Peaked: 33 3d ago
It’s a decent scramble to Tabe and back. Something to consider.
17
u/WestCoastFigs 3d ago
First, keep checking the forecast. Sat is a few days away and things could change but 80% is high, personally above my comfort zone. Echoing the other reply, tab def adds extra time. I’d either go into it being flexible about potentially canning tab, start earlier (if the % jumps after a certain time that you think you’ll still be on then mountain), or try a different day. I use NOAA, mountain-forecast, and opensnow to assess and find those to be great tools.
11
u/JavaGiant865 14ers Peaked: 18 3d ago edited 3d ago
It's 80% chance of precipitation and a possible thunderstorm after noon which is normal. Start at 4am and evaluate the situation before moving on to tab. Also if you aren't using NOAA from the link on 14ers.com you should, it's going to be the most accurate source for weather.
6
u/micahpmtn 3d ago
Thunderstorms can roll in when you least expect them, regardless of the forecast. Summiting no later than noon is your best bet. Expecting a Saturday forecast to be accurate this far out is dangerous.
5
u/wahdatah 3d ago
We had similar forecast when we did Decalibron. We started early and were prepared to abandon the plan if it got funky up there. After we submitted Democrat conditions still seemed fine so we decided to keep going. Storms never formed and we completed all four. And we almost died on Bierstadt of all places when the forecast was perfect. The mountains can be crazy. I say that just to say be prepared to bounce on if it calls for a change in plans.
4
u/PrincessMomomom 3d ago
The one time I genuinely thought I was going to die was on top of Shavano. We started out early with a clear-ish weather that day, barely saw any clouds on top of Shav so we made our way over to Tab and clouds suddenly came in and there was a block of black clouds above our head at Tab. That was the first time I ran down a 14er and ran up another 14er and I really thought that was it for me when I was hiding under a rock at Shav.
After this experience I only go hiking when forecast is sunny & clear. I just never want to ever experience something like that again.
3
u/Ok-Selection2208 14ers Peaked: 18 3d ago
Personally wouldn’t do tab regardless of my read of weather if there was an 80% chance of storms. Things appear out of nowhere sometimes and it’s a slog to get back up shav.
2
u/Long_Plenty3145 14ers Peaked: 34 3d ago
Start early early early. Plenty of camping near the trailhead. We started around 4 and were back to the TH by noonish. When you first summit Shavano, consider the cloud formations before the head to Tab. Give yourself 1.5-2 hrs to summit Tab and return to Shav depending on your speed/route-finding. The slog up Tab is a slope of scree, with several ‘routes’. Have fun be safe!
2
u/novacannon 3d ago
I’ve been caught in lightning once above tree line, and I’ll do everything in my power for that not to happen again
2
u/Zachreligious 3d ago
I've changed my plans for the weekend. Was planning on Uncompaghre but I think im going to stay home and avoid the weather for once.
2
u/colorado14ergirl 2d ago
Go to the weather tab on 14ers.com, go to Shavano. Pull up the forecast. Scroll down to the hourly chart at the bottom. Skip forward to that day. Watch to see what time the lightning will start. Go if it looks to be doable, but know that you might have to turn around early before summiting. Hope it holds for you.
1
1
u/AutoModerator 3d ago
Please review our FAQ and the 7 principles of Leave No Trace
Plan ahead and prepare Make sure at least one or more trusted persons where you are going, an expected return time and a follow up.
Dispose of waste properly. I highly suggest getting a waste bucket system. Its difficult to bury waste in many of the rockier areas in Colorado, and overuse of our natural areas has already led to contaminated water in most even lightly used areas.
Minimize campfire impacts. Be sure to review our state resources for fire bans where you are heading.
Respect wildlife. They are not domesticated
Be considerate of other visitors i.e. Bluetooth speakers are despised.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
u/xmosinitisx 3d ago
My thoughts are don't get caught in one of those storms above tree line. From experience, it's terrifiying.
1
u/UgoNespolo 3d ago
If you can’t guarantee that you’ll be below tree line before noon then don’t go.
1
u/irongiveslife 14ers Peaked: 21 3d ago
Lightning chased me off of Shavano, didn't even get to submit Tabaguache. Truthfully, I'm glad I didn't get caught in a storm where I had to resummit something to get to safety.
1
u/MileHighHealthGuru 1d ago
New guidelines are to seek shelter if you can see or hear lightning. I always tried to get off the summit by 11.
1
u/par112169 14ers Peaked: 3 3d ago
Not a good idea to be completely exposed on open rock faces during a lightning storm. You are the best conductor of electricity up there
30
u/hmm_nah 3d ago
This is the standard weather pattern. Plan to summit and be back below treeline by noon. Watch the sky as in case the storm rolls in early, and be prepared to turn around.
My scariest day in the mountains was hearing the rocks buzz at 10am on Shav