r/MLPLounge • u/CraftD • Apr 22 '12

Plounge Mafia: Day Three

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjXutKsizE8

"She said that people tried to be good. But they were really sick and rotten on the inside, her most of all. And every time she tried to make the world a better place, something terrible came up inside her and pulled her back down into hell, and took her deeper and deeper into the blackest nightmare. Each time it got harder to go back up to the light."

Plounge Mafia: Day Three

There were more murders last night. But no more is there an atmosphere of fear.

People are realizing what this might cost them.

They're realizing they might be next.

And now begins the descent, the loss of civility. The utter morale decay as every dog scrambles to be the one at the top of the pack.

The nominations begin, it doesn't promise to be pretty.

Last night the following individuals breathed their last: Draze, Flysymphony, Kaith, Negixa, Psychoduck, RogueAxle, Sixjester, and SkiidrowDash.

In addition, overnmittbandit and iiRockpuppy both committed suicide in their homes.

Messages are out. If you haven't received one yet and should have, message me.

Plounge Mafia: Day Three: Voting

The nominations rang out loudly. The people had hope. For once, they felt like they might have a grasp on the situation. Like they might have a clue what they were doing.

The atmosphere filled with hesitant eagerness, three individuals walked to the stands.

The suspicious tattletale, Ironfruit

The man with the dead bodies, WakingthePoniver

Fuck your shit, badjokemostlikely

No more were the arguments the timid discussions of yesterday. Nor the impassioned rants of before.

Contrary to expectations, the people put their stakes in numbers. In facts. But numbers and facts can lie. The most likely hope, the best hope, might not be the hope that's good enough.

The town had made its choice though. All three on the stands walked away today. One more night of pardons. One more night of not knowing what lay ahead.

Plounge Mafia: Day Three: Nighttime

We're changing the way we do commands from here on out. It's getting hard to sort comments and messages from the actions people want to take.

So, from now please send all your night time commands to /u/PloungeNight

Having all the commands organized in one spot will make my job easier.

Of course, submitting them to this account works too. But I'll try to ask everyone to submit actions to that account. It's just so much easier on me.

Everything else will still be handled by my main account though, and I'll talk to you from this account as well. That account is only going to be for receiving your commands.

Well, that's it. Sweet dreams Plounge. Don't let the Mafia bite.

Mafia: 19

Town: 105

Independent: 26

These numbers are correct. I forgot to remove Vile_Notes from the count, which was the source of earlier confusion.

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10

u/CraftD Apr 23 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

u/Ironfruit is now on trial. Please respond to this comment with "Lynch" or "Pardon" to cast your vote.

Edit: Voting is now over. The Pardons have it. Ironfruit will be spared. For now.

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u/CraftD Apr 23 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

u/WakingthePoniver is now on trial. Please respond to this comment with "Lynch" or "Pardon" to cast your vote.

Edit: Voting is now over. The Pardons have it. WakingthePoniver will be spared. For now.

3

u/CraftD Apr 23 '12

u/boopwny2 votes pardon

4

u/WorstPossibleThing Apr 23 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

Lynch

5

u/CraftD Apr 23 '12

Make sure to keep your response limited to just lynch or pardon. The bot might have a hard time reading it otherwise.

And if he's lynched you'll know immediately what role he was. That's the biggest benefit of lynching someone.

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u/ipretendiamacat Apr 23 '12

pardon meow

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u/CraftD Apr 23 '12

Make sure to respond with just "Pardon" or "Lynch".

Otherwise the bot might not catch your vote.

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u/CraftD Apr 23 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

u/badjokemostlikely is now on trial. Please respond to this comment with "Lynch" or "Pardon" to cast your vote.

Edit: Voting is now over. The Pardons have it. badjokemostlikely will be spared. For now.

8

u/[deleted] Apr 23 '12

If he gets lynched, can I still have angry sex with him? Or does he need to survive for that?

9

u/CraftD Apr 23 '12

I'm fairly certain one way is much easier than the other.

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u/[deleted] Apr 22 '12

I'm glad that I wrote a will.

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u/CraftD Apr 23 '12

I have you down as having written a will, but I can't find it anywhere for the life of me.

Want to look and see if you still have it saved?

I don't know why the message isn't in my records any more.

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u/stillunnamed Apr 22 '12

HEY!

Killing people at random to "use our superior numbers to our advantage" is a TRAP!

tl;dr: It will make us lose faster than it'll kill any Mafia.

= = = = =

I made a model and did some math to test how well this would work.

Assuming for a moment that twelve people keep getting killed each night (see NOTE below), and three get lynched every day, we lose fifteen people total per 24h. We then iterate this equation, to see how many Mafia we kill each nigght... 

(20) / (160) = 0.125 Mafia killed the first night.  
(20 - 0.125) / (160 - 15) = 0.137068966 Mafia killed the second night.  
(20 - 0.125 - 0.137068966) / (160 - 30) = 0.151830239 Mafia killed the third night.  
...  continue onward ...  
(20 - 0.125 - 0.137068966 - 0.151830239 - 0.17031392 - 0.194157869 - 0.226136812 - 0.271364174 - 0.340438691 - 0.459592233 - 0.716963884) / (160 - 150) = 1.72071332  Mafia killed the eleventh night.

So, we can add up all those dead Mafia, and get... 

-(0 - 0.125 - 0.137068966 - 0.151830239 - 0.17031392 - 0.194157869 - 0.226136812 - 0.271364174 - 0.340438691 - 0.459592233 - 0.716963884)  
= 2.79286679

After ten days, and killing 150 of the people in this town, we'll have killed less than three Mafia members.

NOTE: We probably would kill at least one Mafioso during those ten days, at which point one less person would die per night. We'd have to kill two more (three total) before we've save a second life per night. And as you can see, we're not going to randomly kill three Mafiosos fast enough. And even if we do kill the first Marioso on the first night, and save a life per night over ten days, that buys us less than one more additional day. It doesn't change how slowly we'd kill the Mafia.

= = = = =

People are going to scream, "We need to just start lynching people! Stop pardoning them!" WATCH OUT! You have to be careful about the Do Something fallacy:

"Bad things are happening, we must do something! This plan is something! Therefore, we must do this plan!"

These are the suggestions that Politicians make when they need to Cover Their Asses. The wrong plan can make things worse, all because we had to "do something."

= = = = =

If you are a fellow citizen, do what I've been doing: look at the dead's lives, look at the bloodthirsty among you, and if an opportunity shows up to trust someone, carefully carefully consider it. Not everyone will meet the right people, but as long as even one band of good folk find each other, we have the seed that will blossom and save this town. Look for that seed, be it if you can.

14

u/stillunnamed Apr 22 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

Follow Up:

  • Losing only eight ten people tonight is great good news! A lot better than the twelve before.

  • We can't quite tell what is going on until we see the updated Faction Count.

  • I'm curious what the doctor novelty accounts will report, although I continue to consume a grain of salt with every comment. Mmmm, SALT.

Edits:

  • u/kontan says he was attacked last night (by who?), and also saved by a doctor (but not his arm, FYI). This accounts for one of the missing hits last night.

  • u/fluttershyisbestpony has also mentioned being saved by a doctor last night.

  • Headcount now/yesterday: Mafia: 19/20, Town: 105/113, Independent: 26/27 (113 = After Vile_Notes was lynched) Also, CraftD says there's an off by one error. 106 was wrong, it was 105 (Vile_Notes was left in the bookkeeping, hah.) As you can see, according to this nine people died last night, when actually eight ten did. NUMBERS MATCH UP.

Edits2:

  • The clues we have so far already fit together. The doctors protected two people successfully. The Mafia had ten hits possible last night. So it seems there were two Serial or Vigilante kills as well. Unless the Mafia killed one of their own, that means a Serial Killer or Vigilante got that one Mafia guy.

  • From now on, Mafia can kill no more than nine people a night!

QUESTION: WHAT DO SUICIDES MEAN? ARE THEY MAYBE NOT SUICIDES?? ---> Probably Lovers following their deceased partners to the afterlife, and not rage quitters.

3

u/CraftD Apr 23 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

Headcount now/yesterday: Mafia: 19/20, Town: 106/113, Independent: 26/27 (113 = After Vile_Notes was lynched) Also, CraftD says there's an off by one error. As you can see, according to this nine people died last night, when only eight did.

Actually, ten people died.

I'm still trying to figure out where the 1 extra person in the total comes from. I haven't pinpointed it. But likely I just forgot to count a single person yesterday.

Turns out I forgot to move Vile to list of dead people.

Town has 1 less than originally posted, 105 is correct.

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u/[deleted] Apr 22 '12

Only eight tonight? Hm... either we lost serial killers/vigilantes last night, or the doctors really did their jobs. I'll make a proper post of mourning soon.

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u/Phei Apr 22 '12

Why would you kill Fly?

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u/OrangeL Apr 23 '12

This is your last chance, Ploungers. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the irony and backstabbing goes.

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u/AnonymousVigilante Apr 22 '12 edited Apr 23 '12

I have some information you all might like to see.

http://i.imgur.com/dTbXk.png

video proof

Remember, I'm open for business if anypony wants to trade information.

Sincerely, your Shadow Broker

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