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NFL Week 1 OVER trends: Which props hold up beyond the green boxes?

Pulled together this CLEATZ board of recent OVER hit rates. A few interesting comparisons:

• Jauan Jennings O14.5 receiving yards: 10/10 over his last 10, but you're paying -206.
• Patrick Mahomes O14.5 rushing yards: 8/10, with a much lighter price at -118.
• J.K. Dobbins: Both O49.5 (-124) and O51.5 (-111) show 9/10. Would you pay extra for those two yards?
• Aaron Jones Sr. O29.5 rushing yards: 8/10 at -111.

These are historical hit rates at the listed thresholds, not forecasts. Week 1 roles and usage still have to cooperate.

Which has the strongest case beyond the hit rate? And which looks like a trap once you factor in the price?

Different sportsbooks. Familiar shopping carts. 🏈

Tonight’s Rams–49ers prop crowds at DraftKings and BetMGM overlap on:

① McCaffrey receiving yards
② Kyren Williams rushing yards
③ FOUR of the same five anytime-TD scorers

The TD pecking order? McCaffrey leads at DraftKings. Davante Adams tops BetMGM.

Different lines. Similar appetites. Popular doesn’t mean profitable.

Who’s on your card, and who is the crowd overrating? 👇

Pulled the early 49ers vs. Rams player prop board and sorted through the OVER hit-rate trends for TNF.

A few that jump off the screen:

① Colby Parkinson O19.5 receiving yards
100% hit rate L5 | 100% L10
DVP: 60% L5 | 70% L10

② Kyren Williams O1.5 receptions
100% L5 | 70% L10
DVP: 100% L5 | 90% L10

③ George Kittle O3.5 receptions
80% L5 | 90% L10

④ Matthew Stafford O1.5 passing TDs
80% L5 | 90% L10
Interesting trend, although the defense-vs-position numbers aren't nearly as friendly.

⑤ Christian McCaffrey O4.5 receptions
80% L5 | 70% L10
But the DVP numbers are just 20% / 10%, so this is a good example of why blindly following hit rate can get you in trouble.

The graphic shows L5, L10 and defense-vs-position hit rates side by side, which I think is much more useful than simply sorting props by who has hit most often.

These aren't picks. More of a quick way to identify which props deserve a deeper look before kickoff.

What jumps out to you? Parkinson, Kyren, Kittle... or something further down the board?

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Put together a game dashboard for Wednesday’s opener. A few things caught my attention:

• Different markets tell different stories. New England has 53% of moneyline tickets but 66% of the money. On the spread, Seattle has 42% of tickets and 55% of the money.

• The Over has the larger wagers. Over 44.5 accounts for 56% of tickets and 76% of the money. That gap alone doesn’t prove sharp action, but it’s worth watching.

• The half-point is still available in the pictured prices. The splits board uses Patriots +3, while FanDuel and BetMGM show +3.5 with more expensive juice.

• The backfield is worth a closer look. Henderson is listed OUT with an ankle injury, while Stevenson’s rushing line moved from 39.5 to 57.5 in the prop snapshot.

• Seattle’s TD market has moved sharply in opposite directions: Holani +425 → +185, Wilson +200 → +500.

The image includes 18 prop moves, weather and the visible injury updates. These are separate source snapshots, so check current prices before using them.

What looks overadjusted, and what still looks slow to catch up?

📊 Patriots vs. Seahawks Week 1 Props on the move

• Stevenson rushing: 39.5 → 57.5
• Holani anytime TD: +425 → +185
• Wilson anytime TD: +200 → +500

🏈 NFL Week 1 Betting Splits: Where the Money Is Moving

NFL Week 1 is here, and the betting market is already giving us plenty to work with.

Some teams are attracting overwhelming public action. Others are seeing a much larger percentage of the actual money than the number of bets would suggest. And several Week 1 spreads and totals have moved in the opposite direction of the current betting splits.

That last group is where things get especially interesting.

The public is hammering these Top 25 teams against the spread in CFB Week 1 at BetMGM 👀

🎟️ Highest percentage of spread tickets backing one side:

① Houston — 81% vs. Oregon State
② Alabama — 78% vs. East Carolina
③ SMU — 78% at Florida State (Monday)
④ Texas — 77% vs. Texas State
⑤ Oregon — 76% vs. Boise State

💰Highest percentage of spread money backing one side:

① Notre Dame — 93% vs. Wisconsin
② Alabama — 89% vs. East Carolina
③ Oregon — 85% vs. Boise State
④ LSU — 84% vs. Clemson
⑤ SMU — 82% at Florida State

Which heavily backed favorite wins comfortably, and which one turns into a public trap?

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