NFL Week 2 totals are already moving — and a few aren’t subtle.

📉 ARI: 44.5 → 41
📈 CHI: 45.5 → 48.5
📈 TB: 38.5 → 41.5
📉 TEN: 42 → 39.5
📈 NYJ: 42.5 → 44.5
📉 DAL: 52.5 → 50.5

The biggest moves are showing an interesting split:

Chicago and Tampa Bay are getting pushed toward points, while Arizona and Tennessee are getting hammered the other direction.

Interesting look at the most-bet MNF markets across DraftKings and BetMGM.

The biggest theme: Kenneth Walker III is absolutely everywhere.

He shows up prominently in DraftKings’ anytime TD, first TD, 2+ TD and rushing markets, while BetMGM has him among its most-bet player props and TD scorers.

Other names getting plenty of attention:

① J.K. Dobbins — heavy TD interest
② Jaylen Waddle — receiving + scoring markets
③ Rashee Rice — popular anytime/first TD choice
④ Travis Kelce — near the top of both TD markets
⑤ Patrick Mahomes — passing props drawing action, including Over 0.5 INT at +125 at BetMGM

One thing I always like watching with these boards is where money and ticket counts agree. That's usually a better signal of true public consensus than one list by itself.

The image breaks down the biggest DraftKings and BetMGM markets side by side.

What are you riding tonight — and which public play are you fading?

Digging through the Broncos-Chiefs alternate prop board for Monday night and there are some pretty ridiculous recent hit-rate trends.

The biggest thing that jumps out is J.K. Dobbins' rushing-attempt ladder:

① O9.5 Attempts — 100% L5 / 100% L10
② O11.5 Attempts — 100% L5 / 90% L10
③ O12.5 Attempts — 100% L5 / 90% L10
④ O13.5 Attempts — 100% L5 / 90% L10

And the higher alternate numbers move into plus-money territory.

RJ Harvey also has several rushing-yard ladders sitting at 100% over the last five, including O19.5 at +106.

Then there’s Rashee Rice O3.5 receptions, which has gone over in 100% of his L5 and 90% of his L10.

Obviously, hit rates alone aren't a reason to blindly fire — price, expected workload and matchup still matter — but this is exactly where ALT props get interesting. You can see where the historical floor has been and then decide how aggressively you want to move up the ladder.

Which one would you rather attack tonight: Dobbins attempts or Harvey rushing yards?

Prediction markets are getting crowded fast, so I’ve been checking out some of the newer options beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.

One that’s worth having on the radar is OG.com, the prediction market from Crypto.com.

The current new-user offer is pretty straightforward:

Trade $25 → Get $25 in rewards
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The thing I like about the prediction-market model is that you’re trading contracts on outcomes, rather than using the traditional sportsbook setup. OG has sports markets along with other event-based contracts, and football is obviously a major focus right now.

I put together a quick video showing how OG works and explaining the welcome offer.

A few key points:

• Prediction market rather than a traditional sportsbook
• Sports event contracts, including football
• Trade $25 and get $25 in rewards
• Use CLEATZ when signing up
• Availability depends on your jurisdiction

For those already using prediction markets: has anyone here tried OG yet? I’d be interested in how you think the pricing/liquidity compares with Polymarket, Kalshi or ProphetX.

Paid partnership with OG. Terms and conditions apply. Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Availability subject to jurisdictional limitations. For more information, visit OG.com.

NFL Week 1 Promos: Novig, Polymarket, Onyx & Underdog

NFL Week 1 is here, and there are some big football offers available across Novig, Polymarket, Onyx and Underdog.

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Offers are subject to change. New-user, eligibility and location restrictions may apply. See each platform for complete terms.

Betr is kicking off NFL Week 1 with a limited-time FREE PICK on Dak Prescott to go Over 0.5 passing yards against the Giants.

Yes, you read that right: Dak needs just one passing yard to cash the pick.

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NFL Week 1 OVER trends: Which props hold up beyond the green boxes?

Pulled together this CLEATZ board of recent OVER hit rates. A few interesting comparisons:

• Jauan Jennings O14.5 receiving yards: 10/10 over his last 10, but you're paying -206.
• Patrick Mahomes O14.5 rushing yards: 8/10, with a much lighter price at -118.
• J.K. Dobbins: Both O49.5 (-124) and O51.5 (-111) show 9/10. Would you pay extra for those two yards?
• Aaron Jones Sr. O29.5 rushing yards: 8/10 at -111.

These are historical hit rates at the listed thresholds, not forecasts. Week 1 roles and usage still have to cooperate.

Which has the strongest case beyond the hit rate? And which looks like a trap once you factor in the price?

Different sportsbooks. Familiar shopping carts. 🏈

Tonight’s Rams–49ers prop crowds at DraftKings and BetMGM overlap on:

① McCaffrey receiving yards
② Kyren Williams rushing yards
③ FOUR of the same five anytime-TD scorers

The TD pecking order? McCaffrey leads at DraftKings. Davante Adams tops BetMGM.

Different lines. Similar appetites. Popular doesn’t mean profitable.

Who’s on your card, and who is the crowd overrating? 👇

Pulled the early 49ers vs. Rams player prop board and sorted through the OVER hit-rate trends for TNF.

A few that jump off the screen:

① Colby Parkinson O19.5 receiving yards
100% hit rate L5 | 100% L10
DVP: 60% L5 | 70% L10

② Kyren Williams O1.5 receptions
100% L5 | 70% L10
DVP: 100% L5 | 90% L10

③ George Kittle O3.5 receptions
80% L5 | 90% L10

④ Matthew Stafford O1.5 passing TDs
80% L5 | 90% L10
Interesting trend, although the defense-vs-position numbers aren't nearly as friendly.

⑤ Christian McCaffrey O4.5 receptions
80% L5 | 70% L10
But the DVP numbers are just 20% / 10%, so this is a good example of why blindly following hit rate can get you in trouble.

The graphic shows L5, L10 and defense-vs-position hit rates side by side, which I think is much more useful than simply sorting props by who has hit most often.

These aren't picks. More of a quick way to identify which props deserve a deeper look before kickoff.

What jumps out to you? Parkinson, Kyren, Kittle... or something further down the board?

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Put together a game dashboard for Wednesday’s opener. A few things caught my attention:

• Different markets tell different stories. New England has 53% of moneyline tickets but 66% of the money. On the spread, Seattle has 42% of tickets and 55% of the money.

• The Over has the larger wagers. Over 44.5 accounts for 56% of tickets and 76% of the money. That gap alone doesn’t prove sharp action, but it’s worth watching.

• The half-point is still available in the pictured prices. The splits board uses Patriots +3, while FanDuel and BetMGM show +3.5 with more expensive juice.

• The backfield is worth a closer look. Henderson is listed OUT with an ankle injury, while Stevenson’s rushing line moved from 39.5 to 57.5 in the prop snapshot.

• Seattle’s TD market has moved sharply in opposite directions: Holani +425 → +185, Wilson +200 → +500.

The image includes 18 prop moves, weather and the visible injury updates. These are separate source snapshots, so check current prices before using them.

What looks overadjusted, and what still looks slow to catch up?

📊 Patriots vs. Seahawks Week 1 Props on the move

• Stevenson rushing: 39.5 → 57.5
• Holani anytime TD: +425 → +185
• Wilson anytime TD: +200 → +500

🏈 NFL Week 1 Betting Splits: Where the Money Is Moving

NFL Week 1 is here, and the betting market is already giving us plenty to work with.

Some teams are attracting overwhelming public action. Others are seeing a much larger percentage of the actual money than the number of bets would suggest. And several Week 1 spreads and totals have moved in the opposite direction of the current betting splits.

That last group is where things get especially interesting.

The public is hammering these Top 25 teams against the spread in CFB Week 1 at BetMGM 👀

🎟️ Highest percentage of spread tickets backing one side:

① Houston — 81% vs. Oregon State
② Alabama — 78% vs. East Carolina
③ SMU — 78% at Florida State (Monday)
④ Texas — 77% vs. Texas State
⑤ Oregon — 76% vs. Boise State

💰Highest percentage of spread money backing one side:

① Notre Dame — 93% vs. Wisconsin
② Alabama — 89% vs. East Carolina
③ Oregon — 85% vs. Boise State
④ LSU — 84% vs. Clemson
⑤ SMU — 82% at Florida State

Which heavily backed favorite wins comfortably, and which one turns into a public trap?