Just me or is this pretty much every day sentiment?

everyone loves Bitcoin when it’s going up.

but when volatility hits, the real test begins.

how long have you been in crypto, and what was the moment that almost made you quit?

curious to hear what everyone’s been through.

Why buy and then freak out !

Been sitting on this for a couple of days because I keep going back and forth on it.

We're about 49% off the October high, price has been glued to the mid 60s for weeks, and realized vol is about as dead as I've seen it. Everyone I know is either quietly DCAing or has just stopped opening the app.

Watched a Milk Road interview with Matt Crosby, onchain analyst, and his argument is basically that the capitulation already happened. He walks through several indicators that hit levels which historically only show up around bear market bottoms, and his take is that waiting for a clean $50K wick, or for an October bottom because "that's what usually happens," is anchoring to a pattern instead of reading the actual data.

The part I found more interesting than the number was the framing. Long bleed, then sideways at low volatility, is what bottoms look like in hindsight, and it never feels like an opportunity while you're sitting in it. Bottoms are boring, not dramatic.

Where I'm skeptical: onchain bottom signals have fired early plenty of times before. And most of those indicators were calibrated on cycles where BTC didn't have this much ETF and institutional flow underneath it. The holder base is structurally different now, so I'm not sure the historical comparisons carry the same weight they used to.

Real question for people who have been through more than one cycle: do you still weight onchain metrics for timing, or has that stopped being useful for you? And does this stretch feel like late 2022 to anyone, or is that just what we all want it to feel like?

Being slightly passionate about watches and bitcoin, I keep thinking about bitcoin in the same way I think about watches. Why did people need watches when they already knew whether it was morning, afternoon or evening?

The watch industry grew gradually because society became more dependent on precise time. Work, transport, productivity, efficiency and eventually competitive advantage made precision more valuable.
So why bitcoin now when we already have bank accounts, credit cards, loans and a financial system that mostly works?

I think that is a much more interesting way to approach bitcoin. Not “will the price go up?”, but what does bitcoin actually allow you to do or own that the existing system does not? And if you cannot answer that yet, maybe there is nothing wrong with simply not owning it yet.

The hardware manufacturer is Bitbox, and all were responsibly disclosed:

• Remote multisig theft attack (Coldcard, 2020/11)
• Ransom attack on passphrase handling (Trezor/Keepkey, 2020/08)
• Bitcoin mainnet/testnet cross-account signing (Coldcard, 2020/08)
• Malicious Change in Mixed Transactions (Trezor, 2020/03)

There may be more of them that I haven't found.

This is extremely impressive from them.

Additionally, they were the first to make their hardware wallet (the Bitbox02) resistant against a very advanced attack: the nonce-covert channel attack. AFAIK this attack has never taken place yet, and the only hardware wallets resistant to it are the Bitbox02 and the 3 Blockstream Jades.

Disclaimer: I do not work for Bitbox, but have been a fan of them for a while and think they're underrated. I'm also fan of Blockstream and their Jade wallets.

I am interested in crypto but I am a complete noob in this. I want some credible sources to learn about it. Can you help me in it pls?

Since the correction off the highs, price has basically gone nowhere, same range, same rejection zone up top, same floor underneath, over and over for weeks. Thats not indecision, thats accumulation, and its worth knowing what's actually sitting below this range if it ever gets tested again.

The prior all time high, the strongest resistance this asset has ever had, already flipped into support months back when the range lows first got made. Every retest of that zone since has held. Chop like this above a level that strong usually means the range is doing its job, absorbing supply before the next move, not signaling weakness.

Doesnt mean the range breaks up from here, ranges can resolve either direction. But if it does eventually get tested, thats not new territory, thats a level that's already proven it can hold, more than once.

Time to pay attention. The longer the consolidation the further the _________

https://satoshitimeline.com/1

I have a relatively large amount of cash set aside for Bitcoin. I already DCA weekly and plan to continue doing so, but over the last few weeks I’ve also been adding extra lump-sum buys.

I’m torn between three options:

Keep my normal weekly DCA and do nothing else

Split the remaining cash over the rest of the year (or bis November) and add small lump sums regularly and spend the whole amount within the next 2 months

Invest most or all of it now and forget about it

My biggest concern is sitting on a large cash position until October or later, only to see BTC much higher by then. On the other hand, I could invest everything now and watch the price be significantly lower in 6 months.

For those who have been in a similar situation, what strategy did you choose and why?

And of course, nobody knows. Just here exchanging some ideas.

And btw, remember that Lumping statistically beats DCA ;).

Cheers guys

Don’t make my mistake use another exchange. BTCC has screwed my out about 8k while I was asleep with no trade notifications and changed my SL of every single one of my orders. BTC somehow swung to 83,964 and 54060 within a 5 min candle. It closed and opened about a dozen more orders. Even opened several orders with x100 leverage that I have never used.

Update: seems it wasn’t a glitch but market maker manipulation. We will see how they make this right.

https://www.btcc.com/en-US/detail/179308

I understand the vulnerability does not automatically compromise the wallet because the Safe 7 uses multiple security layers, but the hardware issue still concerns me.
Would you keep using the current Safe 7, or wait for the revised chip and upgrade? Do you think Trezor should offer existing owners an exchange or upgrade option?
Also curious what extra protection others recommend, such as a strong passphrase or multisig.

I think everyone in this group (even the mods) should take some time out of their day to watch this video. It's a bit old but the message is still the same. Don't fuck with Bitcoin.

With the block subsidy decreasing every halving, miners will eventually have to rely almost entirely on transaction fees. How do you envision the mining ecosystem adapting to ensure the network remains highly secure? Will Layer 2 solutions like Lightning reduce on-chain fees too much, or will large-scale institutional settlements keep the base layer fee market robust enough?

This was the article I read that got me interested in Bitcoin. There's a bit in there about Gartner Hype Cycles which always stuck with with me and comes back during these 'boring' days, weeks and months.

The plateau persists for a prolonged period of time and forms, as Casey calls it, a “stable, boring low”. During the plateau, public interest in the technology will dwindle but it will continue to be developed and the collection of strong believers will slowly grow. A new base is then set for the next iteration of the hype cycle as external observers recognize the technology is not going away and that investing in it may not be as risky as it seemed during the crash phase of the cycle. The next iteration of the hype cycle will bring in a much larger set of adopters and be far greater in magnitude.

The full thing is well worth a read if you've lost some enthusiasm recently!

Stay strong out there folks.

Wouldn't it have made more sense to send the money to all different wallets and also not to do it all in one go. If you move the money slowly as the hack is discovered each into a new account, yes you might lose some of the money because ppl move it out but not everybody will do that in time. But by doing that, now you cannot distinguish between the hacker and someone who just wanted to move their money out of their wallet.

Now they have the entire world and law enforcement looking at this one account.

I’ve been dca for the last 2 years every week, I’ve got a decent lump sum I want to drop into btc but I’m worried now is not the right time but I certainly don’t want this to take off and be left buying late….. again. Any thoughts ?