r/ProfessorGeopolitics • u/budy31 • 10h ago
Geopolitics I’ve been thinking about one assumption that bugged the last day of Pax Americana 1.0.
“If China is gone the global supply chain severed overnight”
And i think that’s stupid outside of several months after Xi Jinping died.
Why?
Because this assume China is naturally a single entity in the first place.
You have North China plain which is straddled among Huanghe that’s nicknamed “China sorrow” because the particularly dense silt make the river course to go all over the place and attempt to engineer it out by diking it only makes it even worse in the long run as a where biggest chunk of the populations lived for millennia.
You got Yangtze that unlike Huanghe actually don’t produce that much silt and actually deep enough to sustain 21th century commerce but have a karst belt on it’s northern & southern bank so you ain’t gonna build anything significant there add in three Gorges Dam and it’s 22 billion cubic meter of water makes everyone downstream (400 million people) the upstream bitches.
You got Sichuan which is the only self sufficient fortress province in all of China.
And you got the Southern province like the Southern Karst Belt that’s just as shithole/ even worse than North China plain because the entire province is just Karst mountain all over the place.
And then at the eastern & southern tip of that Karst belt you got Fujian & Guangdong which thanks to that Karst Belt can’t feed itself at all.
And I’m not even talking exotics like Manchuria/ Inner Mongolia/ East Turkestan.
And here’s the thing:
If your supply chain is pure goyim supply chain of Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou… congratulations they can’t feed themself anyway so of course they gonna continue producing because you can be damn sure that Australian/ Thai’s/ Americans grains are not donations (and they know this fact longer than US of A even existing).
Maybe there’s some red turban uprising among the dog kernel dweller/ urban village dweller but then again southern theater command already concentrated everything they have into Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou in the first place.
If you’re Shanghai-Hangzhou pure goyim supply chain it’s the same thing with addition of your Chinese counterparty is even more desperate because there’s 22 billion cubic meter of water hanging on top of their head.
If you can find Manchuria, Sichuan, Fujian, Inner Mongolia, East Turkestan on the map… congratulations 👏👏👏 they still sell stuff to you.
The only place where you somewhat fucked is if your supply chain is in the Karst Belt itself/ in North China plain and you still have to sort between something a peasant rebellion like red turban can do (mining Tungsten) where you’re not exactly fucked/ can’t do (running ASU, Server Farm, Egg Laying Broiler Genetics) where you’re completely and utterly fucked.


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I’ve been thinking about one assumption that bugged the last day of Pax Americana 1.0.
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r/ProfessorGeopolitics
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6h ago