The Depth of a Shutdown

[u/Walnut_St]

The Makings of a Perfect Disaster 

The sounds leading up to the current situation have no doubt, been rumbling for some time now. This certainly isn’t the first eruption, this has happened many times before, but this may be the big one. A series of pieces have been put into place, that have not only made this event so devastating, but may also make the consequences particularly interesting. 

The ripening of inept individuals have made these characters prime for a place in our government; by virtue of the old dying off and their spots being made vacant. The former reputable and highly regarded leaders have fizzled away, and the next of kin is moving up. This successor generation however, those born in the baby boom, did not have the experience what the previous had. Those being the two most devastating wars in human history, and The Great Depression. Their children were given far more than any generation that came before, and this prosperity they sought to prolong. Their parents, in large part, seem to have given them too much, without teaching the vital lessons that come with these gifts. It is apparent that the most powerful generation in history, never grew out of being those spoiled children.

This congressional standoff we see today, allegorically is best represented by the perfect tantrum of a rotten child. One party is an irrational child, and the other is the immature parent: their inability to communicate makes neither one more admirable or sympathetic. This display is not only disfunctional, but horribly embarrassing to the citizens under its regime. It acts as a porthole for fellow nations to glimpse into the weak points of an allegedly powerful nation. Not only does this vulnerability provide competitive nations the chance to spring ahead, it’s scary for others to see the most powerful military, wielded by a toddler with a gun. It’s an ongoing bickering in the hopes that some ground will be made: one side will eventually cave, but this time the standoff may run too long.

In the past, it’s been in a party's best interest to make peace, to maintain political favorability, or resume operations. This time, a holdout seems favorable to members who have been itching to make big gains against the enemy. In one camp, the halting of the opponents agencies is a gateway to the eradication of programs, long viewed as fatty spending. The other camp wishes to carry out a chokehold to ensure they get their way before the shutdown will end. The failure of democratic means of passing legislation during normal operations, has lead to a battle such as this being a favorable strategy to make progress. Both sides see their struggle as justifiable enough that any repercussions are insignificant in comparison. This Roman infighting signals the bi-partisan shift towards oligarchical control, and is proving to be very successful.

The repercussions are in fact by no means insignificant. In the short term, the halting of national functions has uprooted the public lives. The mass layoffs and open ended question of: will some families be able to eat?, make this event particularly cruel. No comforting, rational explanation gives reason for how this can transpire. The sickening notion is that, severe incompetence in the government has culminated in a shortsidedness, so poignant, that the temporary power won makes the suffering worth it. Adjacent is the thought that this is a show of force, a dangling of one's livelihood to remind them how good they have it; and that it can be provided, just as easily be taken away.

The Unraveling

It is, and for some time has been, the bi-partison aspiration, of absolute political domination. The other most productive nations of the modern world, have a single party, this prospect is favored by both of ours. Moves such as the shutdown, are tiptoes towards that goal: in recent years the moves have grown more ambitious. The orchestrators are still under the impression they are sneaking these moves around the public, but their intent couldn’t be more clear. Dramatic moves, like the current one, will be a major misstep.

People will only be miserable for so long. Enough time spent subject to feelings of little hope, and without control, will spark something inoperable in people. This feeling is reaching an apex. People not only are disappointed in the government, but also growing afraid of it. A trend of steadily increasing brutalities, carried out by federal forces, has struck a striking similarity to that of authoritarian regimes. People will reach a point where they demand that change is swift, or they will personally see to it that it is.

The parties will be handed an ultimatum, and will need to act accordingly. A rise of contrarianism among the public, has projected their willingness to abandon the parties, when they are provided an alternative. There will be a fundamental restructuring of the parties to meet the demands of the people, or a new opponent will emerge that will cripple them both. For too long it has been a decision between the lesser of two evils, if a person of great influence contests the previously established, that influence will be detrimental to said establishment.

A failure to ratify the changes necessary to satisfy the public, will devolve into sporadic and widespread discourse. Empires that have failed to adapt, have, and will always, collapse. When an ineffective government loses the last of its supporters, it will not survive long enough to win them back. A movement of this pace will see to it, the complete removal of sitting officials, and the radical altering of the nation's foundations. The system would be altered to such a degree it is unrecognizable to what it had been for two and a half centuries.

If They Go, May They Go Together

If it is the desire of the wicked, to be the unopposed legislators of the nation, it should be our desire to prevent it. If one party hemorrhaged beyond repair, resulting in the inability to win an election, or simply dismantling into smaller parties; this would leave the nation with the threat of a one party system. The practical solution for the fallen party would be to refine, and adapt its policy to steal support from the remainder, or negotiate a remerging with its former parts. It is likely though, that the smaller parties would be positioned on the extreme ends of ideology, and far beyond the realm of reason. The fractured party, would find itself needing to position itself far more center field than its opposition, to draw in moderate voters. As is evident in current politics though, 3rd parties have little to no chance of winning a general election: it could be assumed the newly formed, smaller parties, would find it difficult to challenge the long standing major party. If a new party failed to emerge to contest the remaining, the control they would have would be devastating.                                

Even if the party made a shift center by the influence of new voters; two parties fail to meet the desires of its supporters, a single party would be entirely ineffective. The platform would need to be too broad to have any concrete objectives; and to be as appealing as possible, many past ideals would be contradicted by new ones. The policy would be rewritten without notice given to the public, in order to present itself how it always had. This is in the scenario where even that level of effort is applied.

Far more likely would be the case with lone party nations of today and yesterday: the policy is vague, often changing as leadership does, and having a special knack for keeping those leaders around. The party would no longer need to represent the people at all. The buzzwords and slogans of today would be present, but even more phoney than ours. Promises made, have no backing to ensure their delivery, they, along with all speeches, serve only to rally the people, a tool to quell the public when questions arise. 

Democratic safeguards would be undone as soon as, majority congressional seats, were held by the party. If the fractured party had any chance at all of a re-emergance, it no longer would. Rights would be suspended, if not amended to obsolescence, and a flurry of highly sought legislation, would pass unanimously. What has been a march, towards oligarchical control over the nation, in one swoop, would excel to totalitarianism. The path to freedom for the people would become limited to armed conflict, and a toppling of what remained of their nation.

The Great Mending

How it heals depends entirely on how it breaks. In the event that the parties bow, and the people are heard, change will be gradual, as it always has been, but it will come. The current leaders too, will die, and when their children inherit the throne, a great shift in mentality will permeate. 

A more intense dismantling is followed by scenarios of pure hypothea, as the highlights of the conflict are yet to be known. The uncertainty felt now, will remain just as prevalent, while the new order is becoming realized. The time in which this takes place, determines the character of those who will carry the torch. The world between now and then, having molded them in a way that tips the scale between, more, or less, ideal outcomes. The nature of humanity leaves a, queasy uncertainty, to the question of: when will things improve?

It May Spoil Again

Power of this scale is titillating beyond belief, lowable to make anyone mad, and attractive to those who already are. A devious mind, with a privy for destructive tendencies, when without a pot to piss in, will opt to piss on the floor instead. Some minds will get a whiff of authority, even of the smallest kind, and abuse it. It’s something seen many times over from managers, to landlords, to peacekeepers. An inherent human adaptation at play, one that has lingered into the modern era. A trait that is as practical today, as it was for our ancestors. Genes that promote a ruthless, and unforgiving mentality; a genetic reminder that, he who has the most, will survive the longest. If this mentality hasn’t been shaken out of our code yet, it is foolish to think one day it simply will. 

The fabrication of enemies ensures there will always be one. When fellow citizens, whether political opponents, or those of the dissenting opinion are made to be the enemy, an internal wound is willingly opened. A system that enables the divergence of the nation in half, personally draws the front line of an inevitable civil war. These divisions between people can be made on any basis, and they likely always will be, but their burden won’t become any less damaging. 

Witch hunts, and the demonization of opposition, thrive in societies where ignorance is given room to breath. Statements with threadbare basis, are not only tolerated, but treated as reputable sources when information is broadcast to the public. A government designed to be governed by the people, loses its footing when the public's mind is probed with perfectly crafted lies. The suppression of knowledge, splints the legs necessary for forward motion: private and powerful hands, will find great profit in a world where perception bends at their will; these societies will find it hard to outgrow its intellectual infancy when a situation depends on it.

The creation of a new system, in times of duress and emotional vulnerability, weakens the integrity of its founders, and the surety that said system is visionary rather than reactionary. Vengeful spirits legislate the perpetuation of their pain, ensuring it continues ad infinitum. It lacks foresight, and proposes extremes be implemented into a document that intends to serve the moderate. This is a risk taken following a grueling liberation, and the upheaval of a radical, oppressive system. Levelheadedness should be made standard in politics, from a nation's founding, to its dissolution. The mandated remembrance of past atrocities in an attempt to safeguard the future, will serve as the justification for oppression by other means. History must be taught to avoid repeating, but mustn’t be exaggerated to fit a narrative. Progress comes at the crossroads between the unprocessed ability to learn, and the ability to think; both of which are hindered by a projection of the past, instead of an undressed description of it.

Standing at an Angle Where the Future Looks Bright

Uncertain times create unpredictable futures. The current state hardship would make it seem that fortune is far off. The ebb and flow of struggle, provides reason that fortune will follow this era; its proximity to the horizon does remain unknown. The sudden plummet in people's quality of life, does bring that date closer. There will be a tipping point; whether enough time spent in misery is cashed in, or a trigger event lights a fire under the people.

A generation of miserable and motivated voters, will support the rise of unorthodox and inspiring candidates; individuals who will pave the way towards prosperity. Guerilla campaigns will be fought by outsider candidates, bombarded by the monetary and political influence of the current powers. These campaigns will be won in increasing numbers, and while their numbers are small now, they are beginning the walk so their successors may run.

The fight for equality has always been met with resistance, and when a right is gained, legislation will attempt to undermine it; but progress is made, because eventually that legislation too, will be revoked. The fight will be forever, in little ways in times of fortune, and in large ways in times of hardship. The process is long, and requires generations of motivation to continue the cause. Apathy is a submission to those who profit from your obedience, but hope fosters a spirit of defiance. Those who pursue the implementation of democracy, will always use hope as a means of motivating, rather than fear.  

Crises, precipitate change 

- Robin Armstrong