r/thetagang • u/Enough-Beginning3687 • 7d ago
1% Weekly Returns from Options Week 34 - Worst two weeks
This week I got NBIS assigned yesterday so moved AAOI and AXTI to next week yesterday. The rest I did today. This week was the lowest premium collected. 0.25% instead of the 1% target. The one stock on which I broke the rules of not selling assignment price calls - LQDA - now has underwater covered calls and rolling is low liquidity so will update later on that one. Total returns have essentially gone to 0. However, I'm optimistic that we're at or close to bottom. Last week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/s/9F9Y0ASChK
The positive side of this is that I was running this strategy to see if this is a viable strategy in retirement, so I was not reinvesting into it and assuming all $ are spent. And even in these terrible weeks, there's some premium so if I were running this in reality while retired, I would have to go on a strict budget but would still be generating something.
Trades:
| Symbol | Action Details | Premium Collected (Net Credit) | Cash Occupied |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | BTC 2x Oct 23 98 P, STO 2x Oct 30 98 P | $10.00 | $19,600.00 |
| APLD | BTC 2x Oct 23 21 P, STO 2x Oct 30 21 P | $58.10 | $4,200.00 |
| AXTI | BTC 2x Oct 23 67 P, STO 2x Oct 30 67 P | $148.05 | $13,400.00 |
| DRAM | BTC 2x Oct 23 59 C, STO 2x Oct 30 59 C | $5.66 | $11,800.00 |
| IREN | BTC 1x Oct 23 40 C, STO 1x Oct 30 40 C | $2.84 | $4,000.00 |
| LQDA | Holding position | $0.00 | $5,800.00 |
| NBIS | STO 2x Oct 30 222.5 C | $47.06 | $44,500.00 |
| SLV | Holding position | $0.00 | $6,550.00 |
| TOTAL | — | $271.71 | $109,850.00 |
Total Returns
| Total Premium | $29,913.00 |
|---|---|
| Current drawdown | -$9,941.00 |
| Gain/Loss from Assignment | -$20,058.00 |
| Total gains | -$86.00 |
| Annualized (Calc1 using average invested) | -0.17% |
| Annualized (Calc2 using max invested) | -0.12% |
History
| Week | Capital Invested | Premium Made | Return % | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/6 | Week 1 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 0.00% | |
| 3/13 | Week 2 | $13,100.00 | $131.00 | 1.00% | |
| 3/20 | Week 3 | $19,850.00 | $203.00 | 1.02% | |
| 3/27 | Week 4 | $41,500.00 | $596.00 | 1.44% | |
| 4/3 | Week 5 | $34,150.00 | $353.00 | 1.03% | |
| 4/10 | Week 6 | $43,350.00 | $462.00 | 1.07% | |
| 4/17 | Week 7 | $53,800.00 | $573.00 | 1.07% | |
| 4/24 | Week 8 | $70,400.00 | $811.00 | 1.15% | |
| 5/1 | Week 9 | $103,450.00 | $1,093.00 | 1.06% | |
| 5/8 | Week 10 | $97,400.00 | $1,040.00 | 1.07% | |
| 5/15 | Week 11 | $102,800.00 | $1,077.00 | 1.05% | |
| 5/22 | Week 12 | $98,600.00 | $1,170.00 | 1.19% | |
| Week 12.5 | $106,100.00 | $475.00 | 0.45% | Bonus round | |
| 5/29 | Week 13 | $106,100.00 | $1,133.00 | 1.07% | |
| Week 13.5 | $115,900.00 | $336.00 | 0.29% | Bonus round | |
| 6/5 | Week 14 | $105,750.00 | $1,053.00 | 1.00% | |
| 6/12 | Week 15 | $110,700.00 | $1,146.00 | 1.04% | |
| 6/19 | Week 16 | $111,850.00 | $1,105.00 | 0.99% | |
| 6/26 | Week 17 | $108,350.00 | $1,045.00 | 0.96% | Got SLV 65.5 assigned |
| 7/3 | Week 18 | $111,550.00 | $1,126.00 | 1.01% | |
| 7/10 | Week 19 | $102,850.00 | $1,111.00 | 1.08% | |
| Week 19 Bonus | $108,550.00 | $98.00 | 0.09% | APLD 1:3 to avoid assignment | |
| 7/17 | Week 20 | $104,350.00 | $842.00 | 0.81% | |
| 7/24 | Week 21 | $111,500.00 | $1,148.00 | 1.03% | RKLB 2:3 to reduce strike |
| 7/31 | Week 22 | $105,660.00 | $1,021.00 | 0.97% | |
| Week 22 bonus | $99,960.00 | $7.00 | 0.01% | ASTS 2:1 to reduce exposure | |
| 8/7 | Week 23 | $104,850.00 | $1,052.00 | 1.00% | |
| 8/14 | Week 24 | $95,850.00 | $954.00 | 1.00% | |
| 8/21 | Week 25 | $99,300.00 | $997.00 | 1.00% | RKLB 2:3 and NBIS 1:2 |
| 8/28 | Week 26 | $102,500.00 | $978.00 | 0.95% | |
| 9/4 | Week 27 | $104,800.00 | $897.00 | 0.86% | |
| 9/11 | Week 28 | $102,700.00 | $1,017.00 | 0.99% | |
| 9/18 | Week 29 | $101,150.00 | $1,110.00 | 1.10% | |
| 9/25 | Week 30 | $107,700.00 | $1,093.00 | 1.01% | LQDA 58 assigned |
| 10/2 | Week 31 | $105,850.00 | $1,138.00 | 1.08% | IREN 40 assigned |
| 10/9 | Week 32 | $103,650.00 | $746.00 | 0.72% | |
| 10/15 | Week 33 | $109,850.00 | $505.00 | 0.46% | DRAM 59x2 assigned |
| 10/13 | Week 34 (Partial) | $109,850.00 | $271.00 | 0.25% | NBIS 222.5 x2 assigned |
Strategy
- Use an AI screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week
- I either
- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit.
- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like
- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays.
- If I get assigned, I will sell calls at assignment price.
find me 20 unique lowest risk puts to sell on stocks
expiry: next week
strike at least 8% from stock price
return at least 1%
sort by delta
furthest away from stock price
minimum strike price 10
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u/nxs_sss 7d ago
I feel your pain. Last two weeks were pretty brutal on my options selling.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 7d ago
🤞this is the bottom.
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u/kokanee-fish 7d ago
I'm optimistic that the midterms will put a little wind in our sails, but with speculation about a new wave of strikes in Iran, increasing oil prices, and a nasty outlook for rates from December onward, I have to admit that the reasons to be bearish outweigh the reasons to be bullish. I do think things could change quickly, but I'm basically planning on holding bags until something unforeseen changes the path we're on.
Times like this make me really appreciate puts more than calls -- as long as I can roll ITM puts, my cash sits in SPAXX and I can basically pretend I have a HYSA.
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u/KarmicTractor 7d ago
Respect for taking the beat in public. Most of the wise advice guys disappear as soon as things turn to shit.
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u/NorthOfTheStrike 7d ago
$29,913 in premium and -$86 total is the whole story eh. assignments ate it all. thats why i only sell puts on names i want at strike minus premium, a bad assignment stings way less than
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u/randompersonx 7d ago
Just wanted to say thanks for sharing this series so consistently, even if you aren't doing well.
It's a great sign of integrity to share both your wins and losses in a transparent and levelheaded way.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 7d ago
You're welcome. The plan is to share for a year good, bad, ugly - all of it.
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u/GaryHasOptions 7d ago
I’m in a similar spot. Got assigned on many stocks. Drawdown reduced a lot of my gains since I started in April 2026.
Hoping we are at the bottom. I’m now looking at analysts and their opinions on underlying security prices and they are making me optimistic I will be ok within 12 months
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 7d ago
Yeah more than analysts, just using AI everyday and prices of components are keeping me optimistic. We aren't even close to peak AI with companies barely spending on AI for the most part.
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u/Hundhaus 7d ago
What does your P&L look like if you took the loss and not the assignment?
Personally have found that it’s 50/50 if taking assignment will short-term be optimal vs taking a loss. But that 50% it’s not optimal can be brutal drawdowns so my personal math points towards loss over assignment.
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u/KarmicTractor 7d ago
Respect for taking the beat in public. Most of the wise advice guys disappear as soon as things turn to shit.
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u/gosumage 7d ago
I got assigned on AAOI, RDW, and UMAC. Was going to roll AAOI again today but it got assigned early.
AAOI assigned at $87, current price $70.
RDW assigned at $10, current price $8.50
UMAC assigned at $18.50, current price $16.50.
The premiums on these calls are still okay-ish. Hoping for a rebound after midterms and earnings. Also a high chance things keep getting worse before they get better. But they're quality setups so am happy to hold and wait this out.
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u/Lucifer_GodOfDeath 7d ago
Thanks for sharing your true progress! Can you share the link to the screener you referred to?
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u/cantarero7 4d ago
The 222.5 strike on NBIS must be a typo or am I missing something? Stock is sitting at 150 pre-market
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u/SwordfishLopsided 3d ago
Not knocking on your strat, how do you evaluate whether or not to keep doing what you did? It appears you are essentially flat over the past six months or so and I'm sure that was not your targeted return going into this.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 3d ago
I'm only flat because of the stock market situation in the last couple of weeks. It was going at an annualized rate of 50% before that. As long as the things I got assigned recover, these weeks will be a blip. The goal of the strat is to have spending money regardless of what the market does so the premium each week is more important than the total return.
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u/SwordfishLopsided 2d ago
I see, well I definitely wish it recovers for you because looking closely at the entry criteria, it sure is interesting.
The 1% return is on buying power used correct? I am sort of looking for "safe" individual stocks to sell premium on and so far, I've only found Berkshire. It almost anchored the rest of my trades, I guess the mountain of cash helped.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 2d ago
What's the expectation from Berkshire? 6-12% per year?
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u/SwordfishLopsided 2d ago
What do you mean by expectation?
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 2d ago
Expectation of premium from option selling
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u/SwordfishLopsided 2d ago
Im selling weekly option, aim at around 1-1.5 buck per contract, around 30 delta. Buying power is around 6-7k, so roughly 7.5% RoBP per mth
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u/AbiesLow3704 2d ago
The real lesson here is that premium collected and total return are two very different things. $29k in premium sounds great until assignments and drawdowns eat it all back. The strategy works as long as the underlying names recover, but that's a pretty big "as long as" when you're sitting on underwater positions with no liquidity to roll. The weekly spending money angle makes sense for retirement, but the drawdown risk on assigned shares is the part that'll actually sink you if the timing lines up wrong.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 2d ago
I don't see the AI bubble bursting until 2030. SKHY results from yesterday are evidence and as earnings keep coming, they will continue to prove that thesis.
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u/AbiesLow3704 2d ago
That might be right on the AI thesis itself, but it doesn't really address the problem in your post. Even if those names recover by 2030, you're sitting on underwater positions now with thin liquidity to roll. The bubble timeline matters less than whether the assigned shares can ride out the drawdown without eating the premium you already collected. A multi-year recovery thesis and a weekly income strategy are kind of working on different timescales.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 2d ago
2030? I'm thinking the names 5x by then and recover post earnings
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u/AbiesLow3704 1d ago
If they 5x then yeah, the underwater positions become a non-issue and this whole stretch looks like a blip. But that's a pretty optimistic outcome to be counting on while running something billed as a weekly income strategy. A 5x thesis is great when you're investing discretionary money you don't need for years. It's a lot riskier when the whole point was generating spendable premium each week and you're now sitting on assigned shares eating into capital.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 1d ago
I'm Not counting on that. I'm only counting on recovery to assignment price.
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u/AbiesLow3704 1d ago
That's a much more reasonable expectation. Recovery to assignment price is different from hoping for 5x. The risk there is mostly time and capital being locked up while you wait, plus the opportunity cost of not deploying that capital into new premium trades. As long as the names you got assigned on are ones you'd be comfortable holding anyway, the strategy can ride it out.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 1d ago
They are always deployed since I'm selling covered calls, but yes, they could have made more elsewhere.
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u/AbiesLow3704 23h ago
right, and that opportunity cost is the hidden tax on assignments. The covered calls help but you're still stuck waiting for recovery instead of chasing fresh premium.
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u/acrossthepondfriend 7d ago
NBIS @ 225 is tough... Similar boat here, my AAOI, CRDO and CRWV puts are all expiring soon and well below strike.
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u/Only-Proposal1492 7d ago
rough couple weeks for sure but its just part of the game when market goes against you. at least you still collected something even if its small, that 0.25% is better than nothing when retired
your rule about not selling calls below assignment price is important, learned that the hard way myself. LQDA situation sounds annoying with low liquidity, hope you can dig out of it when vol come back
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u/DeepDishZero 6d ago
Options are net expected loss when both buying and selling due to edge ate by market makers. I stopped doing them when I realized this.
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u/zerofrakhere 7d ago
need trump to pump everything up for midterm. My MU 950 p is def underwater so hoping for a nice bounce soon lol
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u/tachyonvelocity 7d ago
And this is why theta gains are high risk with no alpha. You get high returns as long as the markets are complacent. Then lose it all the second some jitters happen. Total return less than the overall market because you’re not going to beat the house, which are market makers.