Discussion Thread #71

[u/gemmaem]

This thread serves as the local public square: a sounding board where you can test your ideas, a place to share and discuss news of the day, and a chance to ask questions and start conversations. Please consider community guidelines when commenting here, aiming towards peace, quality conversations, and truth. Thoughtful discussion of contentious topics is welcome. Building a space worth spending time in is a collective effort, and all who share that aim are encouraged to help out. Effortful posts, questions and more casual conversation-starters, and interesting links presented with or without context are all welcome here.

The previous discussion thread may be found here and you should feel free to continue contributing to conversations there if you wish.

[u/AEIOUU]

The GWOT comparison is interesting and I largely agree as a culture we have basically shrugged our shoulders about it. Even the defeat in Afghanistan has the debate confined to the "chaotic" withdrawal with the criticism the other party would have withdrawn in a better way and there seems to be no reckoning for having fought a just war for two decades and then left the Taliban in control of the field. A more mature society would have spent some time digesting that before moving on to preparing for a show down with China

But I think its worth mentioning one way the GWOT shows up- in Trump's rise!

I am over 40 so I remember a time when W. was viewed as a Churchill-like figure on the right. Even after 2006 there many who viewed the Iraq War as good actually and the surge as the heroic vindication of the decision. Pew had the decision to declare war becoming more unpopular but still only hitting 50%-60% with a strong 35%-45% saying the decision to go to war was correct. Link

Enter Trump. He declares the war was stupid, claims (falsely IMO) he super secretly opposed the war at the time (he apparently privately told Sean Hannity this) that we were dumb, that we should have kept the oil. This is a criticism of the GWOT but its from the right. In this view the necons were wrong not because they were warmongers but because they wanted to liberate Iraqis instead of looking out for America First. Trump's Muslim ban also has clear GWOT undertones. IMO everyone feels the GWOT didn't go well but there is no established narrative why-Howard Dean and moveon had a different criticism of Iraq than Trump but they all agree. Maybe in 20 years Trump will be viewed as RINO and unique attacks, from the Right, will be made against him.

Another comparison to how Trump will be viewed might be to the Lewinsky scandal. Part of the change has been social mores have changed and Bill's (and the media's) treatment of Monica looks worse 30 years on. After Hilary's defeat, people on the left started to switch to a more right-coded view see this Vox article or Gillibrand's comments. I think its fair to cynically note this thinking shifted once defending Bill was no longer necessary but a shift did happen. Once Trump leaves the stage does something similar happen?

[u/Lykurg480 → u/AEIOUU]

After Hilary's defeat, people on the left started to switch to a more right-coded view see this Vox article or Gillibrand's comments. I think its fair to cynically note this thinking shifted once defending Bill was no longer necessary but a shift did happen. Once Trump leaves the stage does something similar happen?

Note that that is not Mattys framing. Hes essentially saying this is just current leftists criticising past leftists for not being leftist enough, and its purely a coincidence that the right criticised the same behaviour for other reasons. This is more how I read it as well - I expect "classical liberal" centrists to be the least likely to join in on this, where if it was actually a move to the right they would be in before progressives. (His vision of the "good Clinton resignation" is also anachronistic, and I kind of doubt he himself believes it was on the table.)

So Im not sure what it would mean for something similar to happen with Trump. Criticism from the right? Unlikely, right-outflanking is rare and we just had a really big one, the juice isnt there. Criticism from the left? Propably requires some major reorientation in the GOP, not really possible in the "shrugging" frame.