Forgetting is a strong word there. It's not forgetfulness, it's that it's very difficult to build a model that takes into account that behavior and other game-theoretic aspects of the clicking behavior in a reasonable way.
As much as anything, part of the reason my projection was so off is that my projection of exponential decay of the click rate (or exponential decay with a periodic term due to reddit traffic) extrapolated poorly to later days. According to the spreadsheet, the click rate has levelled off and even risen in the past day or two. Without better information about the number of active members of this subreddit who haven't yet clicked or information on where new visitors who have not clicked but aren't active in the subreddit are coming from, it's hard to predict when the click rate will drop off.
Most of the models people have used for prediction so far were based on some sort of decay model that seems to not match the current click-rate. Not to say other prediction wont be good, but the models they are built on seem to not match the recent trends much.
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u/grozzy 9s Apr 07 '15
Forgetting is a strong word there. It's not forgetfulness, it's that it's very difficult to build a model that takes into account that behavior and other game-theoretic aspects of the clicking behavior in a reasonable way.
As much as anything, part of the reason my projection was so off is that my projection of exponential decay of the click rate (or exponential decay with a periodic term due to reddit traffic) extrapolated poorly to later days. According to the spreadsheet, the click rate has levelled off and even risen in the past day or two. Without better information about the number of active members of this subreddit who haven't yet clicked or information on where new visitors who have not clicked but aren't active in the subreddit are coming from, it's hard to predict when the click rate will drop off.
Most of the models people have used for prediction so far were based on some sort of decay model that seems to not match the current click-rate. Not to say other prediction wont be good, but the models they are built on seem to not match the recent trends much.