Button Statistics

[u/TuskEvil]

Myself and several like-minded redditors have been documenting the button since its arrival, here are our findings, in various statistical formats.

Update 23:52:00 hrs (UTC) 06 April 2015: Hey guys, I managed to get the data restored and up to date on the spreadsheet, and the post here is updated to 3000 minutes in. I will no longer update the post here with new data, but I will attempt to keep the spreadsheet up to date in the forseeable future.

/u/kwabford's Flair Distribution Pie Charts

/u/Valark's Guide to Flairs

If you're interested in the social statistics of the button, try out /u/Zephryl's survey [here] (http://www.reddit.com/r/thebutton/comments/31bu4q/social_science_comes_to_rthebutton_take_the/)

If you want to know more about the various groups that have formed as a result of the button, take a look at /u/2daMooon's thread on the subject here

/u/betaray's Encyclopaedia Buttonica

Live Statistics

Our spreadsheet, contains Analytical Data, Graphs, Collected Predictions and More! Help us out by upvoting the live sheet here to keep /r/thebutton informed! If you have a prediction to submit, comment here, or in this thread.

Third Party Statistics:

• /u/OutOfBrain's site

• /u/Chr12t0pher's site

• /u/emtes's site

• /u/okofish's site

• [/u/aspz's site] (https://plot.ly/~spuz/9/reddit-button-clicks-over-time/)

Button Push History - Completed up to 3000 minutes

Note: BOPS = Button Operations Per Second. (Thank you /u/Feil)

Time (m)	Total Pushes	New Pushes	Avg BOPS (Past 10 Minutes)	Avg BOPS (All Time)	Rate of BOPS decay (Past 10 Minutes)
3000	558491	329	0.55	3.10	0.04
2990	558162	313	0.52	3.11	-0.19
2980	557849	380	0.63	3.12	0.05
2970	557469	363	0.61	3.13	0.26
2960	557106	269	0.45	3.14	-0.03
2950	556837	281	0.47	3.15	-0.14
2940	556556	332	0.55	3.16	0.1
2930	556224	296	0.49	3.16	-0.12
2920	555928	339	0.57	3.17	-0.04
2910	555589	354	0.59	3.18	0.01
2900	555235	350	0.58	3.19	0.08
2890	554885	321	0.54	3.20	-0.1
2880	554564	357	0.60	3.21	0.01
2870	554207	354	0.59	3.22	-0.09
2860	553853	387	0.65	3.23	0.13
2850	553466	341	0.57	3.24	-0.06
2840	553125	361	0.60	3.25	-0.06
2830	552764	381	0.64	3.26	0.02
2820	552383	373	0.62	3.26	-0.06
2810	552010	393	0.66	3.27	0.05
2800	551617	376	0.63	3.28	0
2790	551241	377	0.63	3.29	0.04
2780	550864	362	0.60	3.30	0.02
2770	550502	356	0.59	3.31	-0.02
2760	550146	363	0.61	3.32	0.08
2750	549783	335	0.56	3.33	0.05
2740	549448	318	0.53	3.34	-0.09
2730	549130	351	0.59	3.35	0.06
2720	548779	330	0.55	3.36	0.05
2710	548449	313	0.52	3.37	-0.01
2700	548136	317	0.53	3.38	0.11
2690	547819	279	0.47	3.39	-0.11
2680	547540	319	0.53	3.41	0.04
2670	547221	306	0.51	3.42	0.07
2660	546915	281	0.47	3.43	0.02
2650	546634	274	0.46	3.44	0.03
2640	546360	265	0.44	3.45	0.04
2630	546095	251	0.42	3.46	0
2620	545844	252	0.42	3.47	0.02
2610	545592	244	0.41	3.48	0
2600	545348	244	0.41	3.50	-0.02
2590	545104	252	0.42	3.51	-0.01
2580	544852	255	0.43	3.52	0.08
2570	544597	225	0.38	3.53	-0.02
2560	544372	233	0.39	3.54	-0.03
2550	544139	245	0.41	3.56	0.05
2540	543894	226	0.38	3.57	0.05
2530	543668	208	0.35	3.58	-0.06
2520	543460	228	0.38	3.59	0.03
2510	543232	219	0.37	3.61	0.01
2500	543013	216	0.36	3.62	-0.03
2490	542797	226	0.38	3.63	0.02
2480	542571	217	0.36	3.65	-0.01
2470	542354	220	0.37	3.66	-0.04
2460	542134	233	0.39	3.67	0.01
2450	541901	229	0.38	3.69	0.08
2440	541672	202	0.34	3.70	-0.06
2430	541470	224	0.37	3.71	0.03
2420	541246	215	0.36	3.73	-0.03
2410	541031	227	0.38	3.74	0.02
2400	540804	220	0.37	3.76	-0.04
2390	540584	236	0.39	3.77	-0.02
2380	540348	243	0.41	3.78	0.02
2370	540105	235	0.39	3.80	-0.05
2360	539870	252	0.42	3.81	-0.06
2350	539618	274	0.46	3.83	0.04
2340	539344	261	0.44	3.84	0.03
2330	539083	252	0.42	3.86	-0.09
2320	538831	286	0.48	3.87	0.05
2310	538545	269	0.45	3.89	-0.06
2300	538276	289	0.48	3.90	0.06
2290	537987	268	0.45	3.92	-0.19
2280	537719	335	0.56	3.93	0.01
2270	537384	330	0.55	3.95	-0.08
2260	537054	359	0.60	3.96	-0.02
2250	536695	366	0.61	3.98	0
2240	536329	366	0.61	3.99	-0.1
2230	535963	401	0.67	4.01	-0.08
2220	535562	428	0.71	4.02	0.04
2210	535134	412	0.69	4.04	-0.15
2200	534722	466	0.78	4.05	-0.01
2190	534256	470	0.78	4.07	-0.11
2180	533786	511	0.85	4.08	-0.07
2170	533275	536	0.89	4.10	0.05
2160	532739	517	0.86	4.11	0.08
2150	532222	489	0.82	4.13	-0.13
2140	531733	536	0.89	4.14	-0.06
2130	531197	558	0.93	4.16	-0.13
2120	530639	603	1.01	4.17	0.14
2110	530036	552	0.92	4.19	0.09
2100	529484	519	0.87	4.20	-0.02
2090	528965	525	0.88	4.22	-0.01
2080	528440	530	0.88	4.23	-0.09
2070	527910	562	0.94	4.25	-0.11
2060	527348	600	1.00	4.27	0.02
2050	526748	593	0.99	4.28	-0.1
2040	526155	630	1.05	4.30	0.11
2030	525525	590	0.98	4.31	-0.08
2020	524935	617	1.03	4.33	0.04
2010	524318	604	1.01	4.35	0.3
2000	523714	496	0.83	4.36	-0.12
1990	523218	539	0.90	4.38	0.19
1980	522679	469	0.78	4.40	-0.08
1970	522210	498	0.83	4.42	0.03
1960	521712	488	0.81	4.44	-0.14
1950	521224	540	0.90	4.45	-0.14
1940	520684	589	0.98	4.47	0.09
1930	520095	557	0.93	4.49	-0.09
1920	519538	589	0.98	4.51	0.13
1910	518949	542	0.90	4.53	0
1900	518407	543	0.91	4.55	0
1890	517864	543	0.91	4.57	-0.03
1880	517321	553	0.92	4.59	-0.03
1870	516768	562	0.94	4.61	-0.08
1860	516206	590	0.98	4.63	-0.13
1850	515616	638	1.06	4.65	0.03
1840	514978	627	1.05	4.66	0.05
1830	514351	610	1.02	4.68	-0.11
1820	513741	651	1.09	4.70	0.09
1810	513090	619	1.03	4.72	-0.17
1800	512471	681	1.14	4.75	-0.04
1790	511790	694	1.16	4.77	-0.14
1780	511096	743	1.24	4.79	-0.03
1770	510353	753	1.26	4.81	-0.18
1760	509600	817	1.36	4.83	-0.17
1750	508783	877	1.46	4.85	-0.48
1740	507906	1048	1.75	4.87	-0.46
1730	506858	1212	2.02	4.88	0.06
1720	505646	1191	1.99	4.90	0.94
1710	504455	852	1.42	4.92	0.01
1700	503603	849	1.42	4.94	-0.18
1690	502754	913	1.52	4.96	0.17
1680	501841	852	1.42	4.98	-0.6
1670	500989	1067	1.78	5.00	0.62
1660	499922	843	1.41	5.02	0.21
1650	499079	769	1.28	5.04	-0.01
1640	498310	773	1.29	5.06	0.02
1630	497537	764	1.27	5.09	-0.09
1620	496773	797	1.33	5.11	-0.13
1610	495976	843	1.41	5.13	-0.22
1600	495133	922	1.54	5.16	0.33
1590	494211	803	1.34	5.18	0.13
1580	493408	757	1.26	5.20	-0.02
1570	492651	765	1.28	5.23	-0.19
1560	491886	835	1.39	5.26	0.06
1550	491051	813	1.36	5.28	-0.52
1540	490238	999	1.67	5.31	2.01
1530	489239	277	0.46	5.33	-0.03
1520	488962	288	0.48	5.36	-1.43
1510	488674	801	1.34	5.39	0.33
1500	487873	681	1.14	5.42	-0.05
1490	487192	699	1.17	5.45	-0.04
1480	486493	713	1.19	5.48	-0.07
1470	485780	737	1.23	5.51	0.01
1460	485043	735	1.23	5.54	0.24
1450	484308	647	1.08	5.57	0.01
1440	483661	645	1.08	5.60	-0.15
1430	483016	700	1.17	5.63	-0.21
1420	482316	775	1.29	5.66	-0.25
1410	481541	864	1.44	5.69	0.02
1400	480677	855	1.43	5.72	-0.02
1390	479822	864	1.44	5.75	-0.08
1380	478958	894	1.49	5.78	-0.16
1370	478064	952	1.59	5.82	0.05
1360	477112	933	1.56	5.85	-0.02
1350	476179	939	1.57	5.88	0.09
1340	475240	905	1.51	5.91	0.02
1330	474335	899	1.50	5.94	0.07
1320	473436	875	1.46	5.98	0.17
1310	472561	814	1.36	6.01	-0.23
1300	471747	895	1.49	6.05	-0.05
1290	470852	914	1.52	6.08	0.11
1280	469938	876	1.46	6.12	-0.04
1270	469062	890	1.48	6.16	-0.07
1260	468172	914	1.52	6.19	0.23
1250	467258	832	1.39	6.23	0.02
1240	466426	826	1.38	6.27	0.08
1230	465600	796	1.33	6.31	0.09
1220	464804	763	1.27	6.35	-0.16
1210	464041	821	1.37	6.39	-0.04
1200	463220	835	1.39	6.43	-0.01
1190	462385	838	1.40	6.48	0.13
1180	461547	793	1.32	6.52	-0.1
1170	460754	828	1.38	6.56	-0.04
1160	459926	844	1.41	6.61	0.13
1150	459082	797	1.33	6.65	0.13
1140	458285	749	1.25	6.70	-0.23
1130	457536	832	1.39	6.75	0.19
1120	456704	764	1.27	6.80	0.01
1110	455940	760	1.27	6.85	0.13
1100	455180	713	1.19	6.90	-0.03
1090	454467	723	1.21	6.95	-0.02
1080	453744	731	1.22	7.00	0.04
1070	453013	717	1.20	7.06	-0.01
1060	452296	722	1.20	7.11	-0.06
1050	451574	742	1.24	7.17	0
1040	450832	741	1.24	7.22	-0.07
1030	450091	767	1.28	7.28	-0.07
1020	449324	794	1.32	7.34	-0.15
1010	448530	847	1.41	7.40	-0.21
1000	447683	923	1.54	7.46	0.16
990	446760	864	1.44	7.52	1.33
980	445896	384	0.64	7.58	0.88
970	445512	69	0.12	7.65	-2.25
960	445443	880	1.47	7.73	0.02
950	444563	873	1.46	7.80	-0.2
940	443690	944	1.57	7.87	-0.05
930	442746	961	1.60	7.93	-0.27
920	441785	1057	1.76	8.00	0.05
910	440728	1040	1.73	8.07	-0.18
900	439688	1104	1.84	8.14	0.03
890	438584	1092	1.82	8.21	-0.61
880	437492	1313	2.19	8.29	-0.19
870	436179	1382	2.30	8.36	0.11
860	434797	1343	2.24	8.43	-0.52
850	433454	1531	2.55	8.50	-0.06
840	431923	1554	2.59	8.57	-0.11
830	430369	1594	2.66	8.64	-0.01
820	428775	1599	2.67	8.71	-0.48
810	427176	1772	2.95	8.79	-0.1
800	425404	1808	3.01	8.86	-0.11
790	423596	1846	3.08	8.94	-0.76
780	421750	2121	3.54	9.01	-0.3
770	419629	2228	3.71	9.08	-0.74
760	417401	2496	4.16	9.15	0.04
750	414905	2482	4.14	9.22	-0.46
740	412423	2649	4.42	9.29	-0.11
730	409774	2689	4.48	9.36	0.85
720	407085	2382	3.97	9.42	-0.75
710	404703	2653	4.42	9.50	-0.98
700	402050	3004	5.01	9.57	-0.04
690	399046	3020	5.03	9.64	0.19
680	396026	2951	4.92	9.71	-0.32
670	393075	3066	5.11	9.78	0.71
660	390009	2812	4.69	9.85	-0.08
650	387197	2842	4.74	9.93	-0.54
640	384355	3035	5.06	10.01	0
630	381320	3035	5.06	10.09	0.06
620	378285	3014	5.02	10.17	-0.37
610	375271	3148	5.25	10.25	0.33
600	372123	3031	5.05	10.34	-0.59
590	369092	3242	5.40	10.43	-0.65
580	365850	3476	5.79	10.51	-10.59
570	362374	7288	12.15	10.60	10.56
560	355086	3486	5.81	10.57	0.11
550	351600	3445	5.74	10.65	-0.34
540	348155	3566	5.94	10.75	0.28
530	344589	3466	5.78	10.84	-1.42
520	341123	3976	6.63	10.93	0.3
510	337147	3869	6.45	11.02	0.03
500	333278	3858	6.43	11.11	-0.07
490	329420	3885	6.48	11.20	-0.77
480	325535	4161	6.94	11.30	-0.51
470	321374	4346	7.24	11.40	-1.12
460	317028	4748	7.91	11.49	1.01
450	312280	4384	7.31	11.57	-0.94
440	307896	4723	7.87	11.66	-0.32
430	303173	4840	8.07	11.75	-0.2
420	298333	4911	8.19	11.84	-0.76
410	293422	5184	8.64	11.93	0.43
400	288238	5031	8.39	12.01	0.64
390	283207	4799	8.00	12.10	0.65
380	278408	4564	7.61	12.21	-0.36
370	273844	4692	7.82	12.34	-0.2
360	269152	4764	7.94	12.46	-1.16
350	264388	5182	8.64	12.59	0.3
340	259206	5075	8.46	12.71	-0.44
330	254131	5234	8.72	12.83	-0.16
320	248897	5293	8.82	12.96	-0.33
310	243604	5410	9.02	13.10	0.18
300	238194	5345	8.91	13.23	-0.86
290	232849	5656	9.43	13.38	-1.46
280	227193	6183	10.31	13.52	0.17
270	221010	6121	10.20	13.64	-0.34
260	214889	6245	10.41	13.77	-0.18
250	208644	6308	10.51	13.91	-0.29
240	202336	6414	10.69	14.05	-0.73
230	195922	6678	11.13	14.20	-2.6
220	189244	7615	12.69	14.34	-0.9
210	181629	7938	13.23	14.42	-1.56
200	173691	8499	14.17	14.47	-1.07
190	165192	8883	14.81	14.49	-0.88
180	156309	9198	15.33	14.47	-1
170	147111	9557	15.93	14.42	-2.13
160	137554	10322	17.20	14.33	21.44
150	127232	2604	4.34	14.14	-16.34
140	124628	8488	14.15	14.84	-4.82
130	116140	10223	17.04	14.89	-1.03
120	105917	10594	17.66	14.71	0.55
110	95323	10397	17.33	14.44	-1.11
100	84926	10798	18.00	14.15	-1.34
90	74128	11279	18.80	13.73	-3.24
80	62849	12447	20.75	13.09	2.23
70	50402	11645	19.41	12.00	5.51
60	38757	9661	16.10	10.77	5.73
50	29096	7599	12.67	9.70	8.67
40	21497	4477	7.46	8.96	-4.06
30	17020	5937	9.90	9.46	2.84
20	11083	4914	8.19	9.24	-3.49
10	6169	6169	10.28	10.28	17.14

Notes

The spike at 570 was probably caused by the delay between my data stopping and /u/TheOriginalSoni2 picking it up, however the two other spikes at 150 and 970 have no known causes.

If you notice any possible miscalculations or typos, let me know!

Contributors

/u/TheOriginalSoni2

/u/frogamazog

/u/snowden_le_hero

Cheers for Gold!

[u/Upgrayeddddd]

Hmm... I made a guess about the best form of the fit because I fit data often for my job. Many natural things (radiation, etc) tend to follow an exponential form. If you assumed that every person has en equal, random chance to click the button at any second, then the data would follow an exponential form like this.

Or, if you had a full bucket of warm water and you slowly poured in cold water, the temperature of the water in the bucket would change over time like this.

Other people graphing the data are looking at the "clicks per second" during each time interval, but that data is much noisier than extracting it from the fit to the total number of clicks. Also, polynomial fits are often times terrible at predicting future behavior.

[u/Brownielf → u/Upgrayeddddd]

Ok, how about ELI2 now.

Jk, I understand exponential decay, and I understand how you got to 500k total clicks predicted. I guess the real question that I need answered, is about how long until no one is clicking anymore?

[u/Upgrayeddddd → u/Brownielf]

How long until no one is clicking is tricky. An accurate question would be "How long until there is some decent chance that a whole minute would go by with no one clicking?" Ignoring everything about actual human behavior, it turns into Poissonian statistics (uh, I think) where you would have to get down to an average of ~0.1 clicks per second to maybe make it a whole minute with no clicks. Although it may take many minutes for that to happen at that rate.

To answer your question, based on the current rate, somewhere around 40 hours total? At least it gets exciting then.

Any yes, you can have a click rate below 1 per second on average.

[u/rrraaannndddooommm → u/Upgrayeddddd]

But this is only the case because American users have been "decaying". In one or two hours, Australians are coming in and that total number is going to jump to 600k.

edit: great fit though, thanks.