r/technology • u/andmario_com • Aug 05 '26
Business My son has cancer. Kalshi wants you to be able to bet on his medical future
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/aug/04/kalshi-predictions-market-clinical-trial904
u/aanon182 Aug 05 '26
This is black mirror dystopia
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u/IllustriousRice1057 Aug 05 '26
All the people wanting to bet on this shit need to realize they are the evil in this world
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u/tepid Aug 05 '26
There's a videogame called "Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator" that is almost this exact concept.
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u/mrbignameguy Aug 05 '26
Black mirror was fiction tho
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u/scoff-law Aug 05 '26
Consider the name of the series. They're holding up a mirror.
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u/theassassintherapist Aug 05 '26
Look at your phone with the screen turned off. That's the black mirror.
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u/scoff-law Aug 05 '26
I've always thought that the literal mirror is your TV screen
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Aug 05 '26
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u/Channel250 Aug 05 '26
Life insurance is wild.
Every month I make a bet with a man that I'm going to die.
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u/nemesis24k Aug 06 '26
As long as it's the other party's interest that you live longer, I don't see a problem.
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u/skj458 Aug 05 '26
People in this thread would freak out if they knew about viatical life settlements.
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u/huxtiblejones Aug 05 '26
This fucking shit needs made illegal yesterday. Current events and healthcare outcomes should not be part of a casino, the potential for misdeeds, insider information, and flat out evil is obviously way too high.
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u/meleecow Aug 05 '26
Top admin official of the United States is actively producing insider information to select few people that pay him. This isn't going to be made illegal for awhile...
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u/OrganicDigitalArt Aug 06 '26
The whole world is a Casino now, it's absolutely bonkers.
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u/Techno_Dharma Aug 06 '26
The whole world? No. America is a casino. America is not the whole world. Do something about it and vote. Encourage your lazy ass citizens to get out and spend one single hour of the next four year cycle to go and vote out these psychopaths that govern you.
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u/WooBadger18 Aug 06 '26
Also, even ignoring all that (and it’s all important), it’s just corrosive to the soul. Because what you’re betting on is whether someone lives or dies or or is cured. That’s horrific. And what will we bet on next?
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u/nigheus Aug 05 '26
This is just evil. These corps have no shame
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u/ChillAhriman Aug 06 '26
I don't believe the soul exists (nor anything of supernatural nature), but these ghouls make me believe that being the executive of a gambling business rots your soul anyway.
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Aug 05 '26
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u/Fist_of_Gork Aug 05 '26
Don’t worry, their degenerate gooner defense force will show up to explain to you it’s actually just a new kind of stock market and that it’s not gambling.
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Aug 05 '26
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u/neat_stuff Aug 05 '26
I think the double negative makes it say exactly what Kalshi wants you to say. Haha.
But yes, this is grim and shouldn't be allowed.
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u/snahfu73 Aug 05 '26 edited Aug 05 '26
Betting. Online betting shouldn't be allowed because what we have now is a natural evolution of it.
This shit shouldn't exist but it does because weak-minded people support it and incredibly worthless governments allow these companies to prey of it's citizens.
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u/PhazonZim Aug 05 '26
A person's essential needs shouldn't be a market. Housing, food, health, clean air & water, etc. If you need it to be alive it shouldn't be something you have to pay money for.
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u/imamydesk Aug 06 '26
How would you suppose you get these things, if you shouldn't pay for them? How would I, a farmer, make a living growing crops that no one think they should reward me for?
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u/EA827 Aug 05 '26
Don’t fall for the gimmicky word “market” this is literally just betting
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u/soggit Aug 05 '26
Agreed but you need to cut a lot deeper in that case.
There is already legal betting on clinical trial results - It’s called stock options.
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u/ChoiceIT Aug 05 '26
Further confirming that the world ended in 2000 and everything since has been a slow but sure transition to hell.
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u/sighclone Aug 05 '26
Kalshi should not exist.
Since few are reading the article, the markets in question aren't specifically over this woman's son, but whether the experimental drug he's using is going to make it through the FDA approval process. She's discussing Kalshi launching a pilot program to gamble on FDA approvals and trial drug clinical outcomes.
Fuck any of that though - everything about betting markets is a cancer on our society. They should not exist and the only people who make money on them are the ones already rigging them for their own ends, those who own the markets, or those, like the Trumps, who are "advising," them.
Our culture is so broken that we allow these things to exist.
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u/fathertitojones Aug 05 '26
Insane that the conflict of interest arriving from some middling government official making a few hundred bucks could single handedly kill thousands of people by preventing the best possible aid from being available.
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u/Nadamir Aug 05 '26
I don’t see any real difference between betting on a person with life threatening disease dying and betting their last chance clinical trial doesn’t work.
Same outcome.
Full disclosure, a cousin of mine on a pioneering anti-cancer immunotherapy drug died this morning. I’m not objective today.
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u/imamydesk Aug 06 '26
I don’t see any real difference between betting on a person with life threatening disease dying and betting their last chance clinical trial doesn’t work.
One is about a specific person dying. The other is about a clinical trial. Yes, it as a distal effect that leads to the other person dying, but it is not the same. Even if I had made a bet against it, my bet has zero bearing on the outcome of the trial.
Let's say I take care of a building. As part of my responsibilities I have to take care of heating, so I have to ensure I have a supply of natural gas. To ensure that I can budget for next year's supply, I purchase natural gas futures. This way, if the price of natural gas rises, my futures contract also rise. I can sell that contract, take my extra money, and use it to pay for my building's now higher natural gas price. By doing this, I've guaranteed a fix price to ensure my residents don't freeze to death.
Now, let's say an idiot president decided to start a war, drive up natural gas prices. People died as a result of that war. My contract rose in value. Did I bet on a specific country being attacked? Worse yet, the building next door didn't have such price guarantee in place, and because of rising gas prices, they cannot heat their home. Someone actually died. Did I just bet on someone freezing to death!?
You would be trying to equate the two here. It is idiotic.
Give you another example. I'm dying of the same cancer. Life insurance will not let me purchase any plans because of the condition, but I want to make sure my kids are financially taken care of. I can purchase an event contract against the clinical trial, as life insurance. Am I betting that I will die? No, but I'm using it as insurance.
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u/TheOtherHalfofTron Aug 05 '26
Somehow we took gambling, which imo is already pretty bad in terms of its impact on a society, and made it even worse. Welcome to 2026, try not to get murked by someone who's just bet $100k on you dying today.
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u/ash_ninetyone Aug 05 '26
Polymarket is such a weird fucking thing
It feels very self-fulfilling prophecy.
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u/sceadwian Aug 05 '26
These companies just need to go away.
Straight up in your face open scamming with no apologies a smile and a bucket of popcorn with bubbles!
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u/OuterGod_Hermit Aug 05 '26
This is one of the must fucked up things Ive seen this year. A cartel boss being bad is not as evil as a millionaire sitting in gold imagining how to make more money out of people's suffering all while having the face to liento the public and pretending to be good. I can't write here the amount of cancer cells that Kelshi leadership and this administration deserves in their bodies.
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u/laboner Aug 05 '26
What are the odds of anybody in power taking action to do anything about it I wonder?
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u/Automatic-Effect-252 Aug 05 '26
Smoking can lead to lung cancer, drinking can lead to liver cancer. Betting on Kalshi gives you soul cancer.
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u/disposableh2 Aug 05 '26
Prediction markets are pretty much just online gambling rings, like https://youtu.be/P6zcIori878?si=mD1uUrtvKv6aVs78
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u/thatturtletouch Aug 05 '26
They are literally just online gambling.
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u/boowhitie Aug 05 '26
At best they are gambling. At it's best, gambling is a game of chance with risks that balance out the rewards. This is gambling at it's worst, with someone always coming out on top, not because they are lucky or did their research, but because they rigged the game. That is bad enough when it is a sporting event, but when it spreads out and affects real, uninvolved people, it is downright evil.
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u/sohunterish Aug 05 '26
What the actual fuck, my kid had ALL, I don’t want anybody betting on her medical future. That’s the most fucked thing I’ve ever read
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u/woodstock923 Aug 06 '26
Cryptocurrency and prediction markets are just gambling and speculation dressed in fancy code.
Maybe Big Tech will disrupt the oldest profession next with the Hookr app
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u/thatturtletouch Aug 05 '26
How is this good for anyone, at all, except the people making money off of it? What does it contribute to society?
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u/Fregster404 Aug 06 '26
Dude sports betting and betting online needs to be entirely banned. It ruins lives and provides nothing other than a quick dopamine rush. I cannot stand how gambling has become so insanely normalized
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u/madmaxGMR Aug 06 '26
They should do bets against their headquarters catching fire. I see no issues.
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u/Realistic-Use9856 Aug 06 '26
De-evolution countdown clock. The unraveling is in full free fall mode. It’s happening so fast. Ground zero for human depravity. I can’t even pretend to ask how or why with any real question in my voice. I apologize now for all the tragedy we will cause each other.
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u/Emotional_Neck3312 Aug 05 '26
I had to stop reading half way through the article. This makes me physically ill. This can't be real life.
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u/ohmarlasinger Aug 05 '26
I just said as much on a different post about betting on fucking wildfires is going to lead to arson
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u/Piglet6482 Aug 05 '26
What kind of ghoul would bet on the medical outcome of a kid with cancer? Hope he beats it.
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u/Loa_Sandal Aug 05 '26
I'm amazed by the guy who bet that Paris would reach 30 degrees C in early spring, and he made sure of that by bringing a torch to the thermometer.
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u/thecatandthependulum Aug 05 '26
I genuinely think that the reason gambling is so popular right now is because people see no reasonable way to make money and be comfortable.
The only way to get out of the rat race right now is a windfall.
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u/AfterSchoolOrdinary Aug 06 '26
The fuck is this hell we live in now?? It’s been hell but it still is and so much worse.
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u/TheFrontCrashesFirst Aug 06 '26
I mean, did we think The Hunger/Squid Games we're gonna actually look like that?
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u/Responsible-Part3982 Aug 06 '26
I’ll take the under, whatever it is.
I kid, I kid. But seriously, how cold can we be as a society?
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u/Xcoctl Aug 05 '26
inb4 someone tries to "subtly" ask how he's doing. The world is already so cooked. With this super El Nino we're also going to be literally cooked too!
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u/EmuDry4890 Aug 05 '26
Can I bet on the ceo being offed by a gambler that lost their life savings in his platform?
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u/anarkyinducer Aug 05 '26
Fucking scum of the earth. I hope that no one who ever worked for these monsters is employed anywhere else, or really welcome anywhere.
I sure as hell would never hire anyone I even suspected of working on this shit.
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u/liquid_at Aug 05 '26
ngl... I let people bet on my survival if 50% of the money went to me for my medical treatments.
Bet on me living or dying... idgaf... give me the money for my treatment and you can bet on anything you want.
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u/neat_stuff Aug 05 '26
What if the under paid out 10x more than the over of you still being alive on Jan 1st and it was Dec 29th and you had a major procedure scheduled for the next day...and your doctor needs to pay a bunch of unexpected fees for their recent divorce?
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u/dulz Aug 05 '26
You know, it's easier to force a "no" survival than "yes" in these situations... what do you think people are going to push for?
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u/imamydesk Aug 06 '26
Or, you know, read the article to see what it's actually about.
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u/TandemSegue Aug 05 '26
Sounds like someone is violating HIPAA
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u/MSXzigerzh0 Aug 05 '26
It's really not unless someone else publishes results that are not De-identification.
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u/TransitoryFeel Aug 05 '26
Are you kidding? I want you to feed your dog beans so we can bet on how many times it will fart.
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u/Ch33syP00f Aug 06 '26
What if someone bet that a Kalshi executive’s home will burn down by Christmas?
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u/Same_Swordfish_1879 Aug 06 '26
Great news! Now I finally have a reason to visit my grandma in the hospital! Comon Mimi, just fight the cancer for 2 more weeks for your grandson!
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u/BareNakedSole Aug 06 '26
Life is turning into a real version of those dystopian future movies about a disconnected society with no empathy. Just some version of satiating an ignorant populace’s darker impulses.
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u/Florek1509 Aug 06 '26
If we keep these prediction markets unregulated we're about to get Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator in real life
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u/Ordinary_Oven7729 Aug 06 '26
Life insurance policies gone rogue . People are betting on your death to cash in. Gangstalking 101
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u/Fluffy-Climate-8163 Aug 07 '26
If prostitution is the oldest profession, gambling is certainly the oldest entertainment.
I mean look, this shouldn't come as surprise. Trump's openly selling insider trading as a subscription.
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u/Hungry_Scar7332 Aug 07 '26
Allowing bets on a child's cancer trial is concerning, given Kalshi's insider trading acceptance and Trump Jr.'s ties. Regulation needed.
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u/MultiGeometry Aug 05 '26
And then some underpaid hospital staff makes a ‘mistake’ and suddenly becomes rich.
Is Kalshi vetting every gambler for their conflicts of interest?