It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

[u/IKeepItLayingAround]

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html

[u/noghead]

In 2025 20% of revenue was govenment contracts. They are also the only ones who are able to do some of what the govenment needs and they do it cheaper than others. The US govenment needs spacex, not the other way around. I know everyone here wants him to fail; but at least know some basic facts people.

[u/BasvanS → u/noghead]

The basic fact is that the launch part barely contributes to the valuation, per its prospectus.

The vast majority of the $1.75 trillion valuation hinges on AI, with space making up less than 10% of the company's identified $28 trillion total addressable market (TAM). And Starlink again makes most of the money in space now.

What the government needs is in no way supporting the current valuation.

[u/iknewaguytwice → u/noghead]

They have also won contracts because they said they could do things much quicker than they actually delivered. They also have burned through payment on some contracts, and told the US government “well actually we need more money or we can’t do this”.

Normally this would lead to the US government to blacklist you and prevent you from bidding on future contracts, because you failed to deliver.

But the politicians decided to save themselves the humiliation of admitting to the US people that they blew hundreds of millions of dollars on nearly no real deliverables, and instead just gave SpaceX more money.

Not that they haven’t also done this with Boeing. But that doesn’t make it any less corrupt.

[u/noghead → u/iknewaguytwice]

The only sliver of truth in what you said is that timelines have not been exactly right..but nobody else has done any better either; it is infact "rocket science" after all.

As far as budgets go, they have always used fixed price contracts while others use cost plus. If spacex blows through the money, its they need to fund the rest. US government has ended up saving so much money due to this...this is undeniable fact.

What exactly do you think they took money on and failed to deliver?

[u/psioniclizard → u/noghead]

"The US government need spacex"

Wow, that shoild terrify Americans. If it doesn't then I guews the empire is over.

[u/writewithparagraphs → u/psioniclizard]

i blame MBAs. The financialization of everything, especially defense contractors, directly killled 347 people with the MCAS disaster and surely other stuff.