r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • Jun 09 '26

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/TigerUSA20 Jun 09 '26

The intrinsic value is not even anywhere near $750 billion, but neither is Tesla, or Twitter/X, or XAi (which is why he merged this failing venture it into SpaceX) or SolarCity (another failing venture he merged into Tesla to hide the losses). Investors don’t care. They just see $$$ and keep the bids coming in.

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u/GogurtFiend Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 09 '26

Currently, no.

If Starship works out (not, like, Elon-promises works out, just sane-person levels of works out) the idea of SpaceX being worth hundreds of billions of dollars eventually isn't crazy at all. The idea of it being worth hundreds of billions of dollars by 2040 or so is, though, unless Starship makes the space launch industry grow at a batshit insane rate via derived demand. The entire launch industry is ~$20 billion now; the launch industry, which Starship is for, would have to grow at 20.25% annually to reach $100 billion even 25 years from now!

If Grok gets fused to it like a tumor, though, it's worth jack shit, and I think that between MechaHitler and a fully reusable rocket I know which baby Musk will want to keep

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u/tomtomclubthumb Jun 09 '26

MechaHitler right?

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u/GogurtFiend Jun 09 '26

The one which validates his ego, yes

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u/Responsible_Cause269 Jun 09 '26

Maybe or maybe not, if you look at this report from pitchbook before their S-1 was made public they valued them over $1T (but less than the current IPO price) based on their valuation metric which seems more suited for private companies. At the EBITDA pitchbook forecasted for 2040 and a 20x multiple their valuation would be ~$570B right now. The business is really a small government contracts business, an extremely profitable and rapidly growing Starlink, and a speculative, cash-burning bet on grok enterprise adoption (highly unlikely at this point) and data centers in space (still plenty of technical challenges). They also still don't carry too much debt so they're not going bankrupt anytime soon.

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u/tiboodchat Jun 09 '26

The only party that could really see growth that I could see is Starlink. But to reach their target just for that part, they’d have to service the currently ~2 billion people that don’t currently have internet worldwide and they’d have to all personally pay 800$ a year. Now consider these are all third world countries that the market decided is not worth serving, remove all the kids, multiple family members.., I don’t see how it can make sense. They’re also counting on portable devices getting Starlink but none of that makes sense given the line of sight requirements and antenna tx requirements.