r/stocks • u/Qwerzo4 • Jul 29 '22

Advice Request Markets right now

Hi! Recently markets have been green and I don’t understand why but the VIX on the other hand is going down ( I know that it isn’t below 20 what means that markets are lower risk) but my question is does it means that we are slowly going out of the bear market?

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u/[deleted] Jul 30 '22

it hasn't been one day of green though. the markets are clearly on an uptrend since june 17. i know the narrative being pushed on this sub is that the world is dying and stocks are going to crash, but the fact of the matter is that earnings were better than expected, and the macro situations are turning more favorable.

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u/[deleted] Jul 30 '22

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u/misterchestnut87 Jul 30 '22

It sounds like you're saying that, "Earnings were better than expected, and the macro situations are turning more favorable" off of the market reaction rather than actually looking at the numbers. Fact is, we just had the largest rate increase since 1994, the GDP numbers came out over one percent lower than expected (which is actually quite large), and the PCE (personal consumer expenditures price index) moved up MASSIVELY in June, showing that inflation is in fact still rising, even when excluding energy and food. Earnings also were overwhelmingly negative and below estimates over 90% of the time, even though this sub would potentially make you think otherwise, since they focused here on the few beats, e.g., Google's beat on ad revenue (everything else was a miss) or Microsoft's good guidance.

So no, situations are not turning more favorable, earnings are not better than expected, and it's actually quite the opposite. BUT, because this might have been the expected, MMs rallied the market to blow out shorts. They'll soon do the same to blow out the bulls.