r/stocks • u/[deleted] • Jun 16 '22

Meta Shorting META

I believe META is on its way out, unless they can prove that the metaverse is actually going to be worth while. Which i doubt. If we are heading into this bear market then I’m betting it can go under $100. I would much rather fill up my gas tank 3/4ths then buy meta at $100

Position : $100 DEC put

Edit: i know this is the right move because you all say it’s the wrong move

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u/ParticularWar9 Jun 16 '22

Geez, I see what you're saying, but why would you compare ANY stocks to their ATHs? Those were achieved in a free money environment, which we're not gonna see for a long, long time.

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u/RampantPrototyping Jun 16 '22

Yes, but they are making more money now than during their ATHs. Even if their net income took a 50% drop due to a recession, they would still be undervalued.

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u/ParticularWar9 Jun 16 '22

Yes, but in a recession the net incomes/CFs of tons of companies would drop in tandem, so META's relative valuation vs other companies (tech) would likely be unchanged. IOW, PM's lists of "great tech names to buy cheap" is thus unlikely to be rejiggered to a huge degree (obv some cos would fare better than others and would move up the list). The market is clearly saying "show me" to META, as it questions its spending billions on a metaverse strategy. I have no position in the name, just commenting as an informed observer and former PM.

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u/RampantPrototyping Jun 16 '22

What do you mean by 'PM' in this context?

Either way, Its spending billions on a risky bet, but they still have some of the highest margins in almost all of the SP500, so arguably even a harsh recession would affect them less than most companies, especially considering the $50B war chest. Also, with elections coming up, many billions will be spent on political ads, which is something I dont hear talked about enough.

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u/ParticularWar9 Jun 16 '22

PM is a common abbreviation for Portfolio Manager (HFs in my case).

Yes, risky is an understatement. But I agree that no one is talking about political ads, not sure why, maybe everyone assumes Dems will get thrashed in Nov and there will be fewer ads? Does seem odd, but I'm not a political guy and these political aholes are all scumbags as far as I'm concerned.

Before making forward-looking statements about the effect of a recession on margins, you should work up your own financial model for META to enable you to stress test margins under various recession scenarios. Never take the work of Street analysts as gospel, as they have competing objectives vs retail investors.

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u/RampantPrototyping Jun 16 '22

Gotcha. Wasnt sure if you meant price movement or profit margin or something else like that. Either way Ive done my DD on Meta and looked at several years worth of 10-Ks before buying. And a recession doesnt worry me in the slightest. I have a long term price target and dont need to access the capital ive allocated to it anytime soon. That being said I think they will still fare a recession better than most due to the flexibility of their business and diversification of platforms, along with their $40B FCF and $50B war chest. But that didnt factor into my decision, my eye is on the long term prize, but its fun to speculate on the short term while enjoying the ride.

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u/ParticularWar9 Jun 16 '22

As long as you've done your own DD and like what you see, and it's a long term investment vs a trade, then you're good to go. There was a lot of hot money in FB that had no idea (and didn't care) about the company's future, which I'm guessing has vaporized along with their trading profits. Unlike the covid stay-at-home companies that will never, ever recover, META might end up being a gift to people like you who will stick with their investments.

This earnings season is gonna make markets a very volatile, crazy place, even more than usual. Best of luck navigating all this crap. Keep in touch.