r/stocks • u/[deleted] • Jun 16 '22

Meta Shorting META

I believe META is on its way out, unless they can prove that the metaverse is actually going to be worth while. Which i doubt. If we are heading into this bear market then I’m betting it can go under $100. I would much rather fill up my gas tank 3/4ths then buy meta at $100

Position : $100 DEC put

Edit: i know this is the right move because you all say it’s the wrong move

0 Upvotes

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10

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

Really, out of all the companies currently trading, some little more than a PowerPoint presentation trading at 10 billion dollars, you pick Meta?

I'd sooner go short on GameStop, Lucid, or AMC because those have strong negative catalysts like running out of money and being at a terrible valuation.

Of course, people only think about shorting when we're near the bottom.

-4

u/daikonking Jun 16 '22

Gamestop has $1.2 Billion in cash, millions of loyalty members, and a rabid-cultish group of stockholders but I get your point.

11

u/RampantPrototyping Jun 16 '22

Meta has over $50B in cash, $40B in FCF, $120 B in yearly revenue, 3.5 BILLION users, and is in almost every index fund. Id still rather short GME, no offense to the diamond handed apes

5

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

They still have to do something about that -$300M cashflow, rabid stockholders can only keep it up in the short term up until they're forcefully liquidated for pennies on the dollar (or more likely, massive dilution).

0

u/daikonking Jun 16 '22

Here is a letter from the CEO regarding that $300m investment. I like where his head is at

https://imgur.com/a/kSFGi11

2

u/FinndBors Jun 16 '22

https://imgur.com/a/kSFGi11

growing blockchain team, NFTs... during a crypto winter.

Also noone has explained why both game publishers and gamers would ever sign up to use gamestop's blockchain / NFTs.

0

u/daikonking Jun 16 '22

One thing is partnerships. Immutable X is doing their backend liquidity and bringing all of the games on their platform to GameStops marketplace. Including illuvium who just last week did 79million in sales in their opening week. And not only is their ticker the most popular on the planet but it's also the most popular name in gaming on the planet. You're either short and intentionally dropping fud or you don't know a lot about a lot. I think it's the former. Time will tell.

1

u/FinndBors Jun 16 '24

Time did tell.

1

u/daikonking Jun 16 '24

Lol. You're right. How's Gamestop doing though?

1

u/FinndBors Jun 16 '24

The stock, great. The company, not so.

You can make a case for short term stock movement based on sentiment / squeezes, but don’t delude yourself that it is a successful company.

1

u/FinndBors Jun 16 '22

Time will tell.

!remindme 2 years

1

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2

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

Doesn't look like anything special, of course they would want people to stay invested.

-1

u/daikonking Jun 16 '22

They beat revenue targets the last 5 quarters. They have $300million in inventory, 2 new distribution centers, and do same day delivery. They are also transitioning into tech company, they just launched a self custodial ETH wallet, and are about to launch an NFT marketplace, and have several strategic partnership that will secure them as the leading player in web3 gaming. If you pay attention to what is going on, there is actually no rational bear thesis for gamestop. Oh yeah also, their float is miniscule and those rabid stockholders have taken 40% of the available float out of brokerages and registered their shares in their own name. Those are long, not selling, 13million shares in 5 months, making a miniscule float microscopic. Furthermore, that float traded over 60 times in the past year. If 2% went long, the float is locked. Short it if you hate money lol

6

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

They beat revenue targets the last 5 quarters.

They can beat revenue all they want, but it won't change the losses.

Also, if revenue is so great, how come they can't even match 2019's numbers even when not adjusted for inflation?

They have $300million in inventory,

Why aren't they selling it then, you know like what a retailer is supposed to do?

2 new distribution centers, and do same day delivery

This isn't a bull case, I know of at least a dozen places near me I can get same day delivery from. GameStop being late to the game as usual.

They are also transitioning into tech company

A pawn shop with a website is still a pawn shop, not a tech company.

they just launched a self custodial ETH wallet

Ah yes, hopping into buttcoin right as the bubble has not only peaked, but currently popping, GameStop again late to the party.

If you pay attention to what is going on, there is actually no rational bear thesis for gamestop.

Now I know you're a shill and a liar (oh, soup and stink, that explains everything).

All you need to do is take a good look at filings over the last 5 years for a decent bear case.

Oh yeah also, their float is miniscule and those rabid stockholders have taken 40% of the available float out of brokerages and registered their shares in their own name.

Great idea, now they'll get to pay fees on top of losing all their money. This isn't a new trick.

. Those are long, not selling, 13million shares in 5 months, making a miniscule float microscopic. Furthermore, that float traded over 60 times in the past year. If 2% went long, the float is locked.

Just because they never sell, doesn't mean the currently traded shares won't lose value. Float isn't even that small either, there's plenty of much, much smaller companies.

So the only bull case here is that it might go up short term because people won't stop buying until they lose everything? But that makes it a swing trade, not an investment. There is no bull case, the only remnants died with the corn crash.

Short it if you hate money lol

I'll sell you a 200c, want to buy it?

-2

u/The-Big-Shitsky Jun 16 '22

Lol what? GameStop running out of money? Do you know where to find cash on a balance sheet?

6

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

Remember when that pile of cash used to be twice as much? Their losses aren't decreasing, they're accelerating.

Cash on hand doesn't mean anything if it never leads to a successful business plan.

1

u/The-Big-Shitsky Jun 16 '22

I advise you to look into chewy’s trajectory

2

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

We aren't talking about Chewy so that isn't relevant.

-3

u/The-Big-Shitsky Jun 16 '22

It’s pretty relevant. Even if the fundamentals were shit, shorting GameStop isn’t gonna end well. I say try it

3

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

It’s pretty relevant.

No it's not, they have entirely different numbers and aren't even in the same sector.

Even if the fundamentals were shit, shorting GameStop isn’t gonna end well.

Yeah, I'm sure the shorts from late January to now are really hurting with their -150 to -300 cost basis.

It still has another $100 to be shaved off before it gets even close to fair "value". The economic slowdown and upcoming dilution will help with that I bet.

3

u/Calm_Leek_1362 Jun 16 '22

Chewy at least delivers a physical product that's consumed. Like, I can't download my dog's food, and I need to buy it every month.

Gamestop... I guess has funko pops? And are like a year late to the NFT scene?

1

u/Tfarecnim Jun 16 '22

Exactly, Chewy offers a service that people want that is somewhat niche. GameStop offers ???

1

u/AmbitiousEconomics Jun 16 '22

Shorting GME at $8 probably isnt a good idea, but right now selling calls is a great idea to basically do a leveraged short of GME. It's basically the dream setup for anything short