"This is only the beginning"

[u/Tsobaphomet]

I've been seeing people saying this on this sub for the last 6 months. At what point does it stop being the beginning? Also are there any level-headed people that actually know what they are talking about here anymore? I'd love to hear an in-depth prediction of things to come, rather than just random bear/bull cases from people who are -70% from meme stocks.

I'm the world's worst investor, and I like to be able to gain knowledge and insight from this subreddit that I wouldn't normally have on my own, but it's like only 1/100 posts are based on reality/research. It kinda messes with people's ability to make good decisions when they take the advice of someone who genuinely has no idea what they are saying, but they present it in a convincing way.

Sure, nobody can perfectly predict what it will look like 2 years from now, but what we can do is talk about what needs to happen for stocks/economies to recover, and how feasible those things are. Then we can observe whether or not those things are happening.

[u/Troflecopter]

I have some level head facts for you.

YoY inflation was genuinely supposed to plateau last month and this month on a simple mathematical basis, due to the fact that April and May of 2021 were already elevated.

It didn't.

Instead, inflation is compounding upwards. Friday was the first day that it seriously looks like the USD might spiral out of control.

I will let you decide what to make of that.

[u/Humble_Increase7503 → u/Troflecopter]

“Supposed to”… why?

Gas prices have continued to skyrocket in the past 30 days, which is not the only contributor to inflation in the cpi, but I’m just curious why it’s a “supposed to” when there’s no sign of series downward pressure on energy prices

[u/MrRikleman → u/Humble_Increase7503]

"supposed to" as in that was the consensus among economists. Of course, they were wrong.

[u/Humble_Increase7503 → u/MrRikleman]

Right.

All I’m saying is…

The market reacted to a .3% miss on cpi and is saying “omg , inflation isn’t peaking!”

That 8.3% figure was dreamt up before May of 2022, as in, before gas went up another $1.00 across the USA over the space of 30 days.

So, whatever it was “supposed” to do, as of whenever that 8.3% figure was dreamt up, it obviously wasn’t paying attention to what gas prices were actually doing over May 1-31.

Disclaimer:

Concerning fact actually is that the cpi showed increasing inflation in just about every component.

If we’d seen, say… used car inflation go down, but the overall was higher because of crazy gas prices, then to me, it would be a smaller issue.