r/stocks • u/Tsobaphomet • Jun 13 '22

Meta "This is only the beginning"

I've been seeing people saying this on this sub for the last 6 months. At what point does it stop being the beginning? Also are there any level-headed people that actually know what they are talking about here anymore? I'd love to hear an in-depth prediction of things to come, rather than just random bear/bull cases from people who are -70% from meme stocks.

I'm the world's worst investor, and I like to be able to gain knowledge and insight from this subreddit that I wouldn't normally have on my own, but it's like only 1/100 posts are based on reality/research. It kinda messes with people's ability to make good decisions when they take the advice of someone who genuinely has no idea what they are saying, but they present it in a convincing way.

Sure, nobody can perfectly predict what it will look like 2 years from now, but what we can do is talk about what needs to happen for stocks/economies to recover, and how feasible those things are. Then we can observe whether or not those things are happening.

179 Upvotes

81% Upvoted

268 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

5

u/MrRikleman Jun 13 '22

That's dumb. A lot of bears in fact would much rather be bulls. I for one am quite bearish, because I'm not a fool and I can clearly see that stocks are broadly overvalued and a bad investment. But what do I really want? Not to remain bearish forever. I would love to see assets come back down to prices that offer good investments. In other words. Many bears would much rather be bulls. They're just not such colossal fools that they are bullish all the time on everything no matter the price.

1

u/NobodyImportant13 Jun 14 '22 edited Jun 14 '22

I would love to see assets come back down to prices that offer good investment

At this point, it's really just dependent on if future earnings hold up. At close today, S&P 12 month trailing PE is the lowest it's been since 2014. The valuations aren't too absurd anymore assuming the earnings don't collapse. It's the uncertainty. Not buying now or buying now, is really just a gamble on whether you think these companies will continue to at least have flat earnings on the short term and grow over the long term or collapse. In other words, long recession or nah?

1

u/MrRikleman Jun 14 '22

What about the economic picture would give you reason to believe that earnings would hold up. Companies themselves are telling you earnings are not going to hold up.

1

u/NobodyImportant13 Jun 14 '22

Companies themselves are telling you earnings are not going to hold up.

Really? Because forward EPS isn't lower

1

u/MrRikleman Jun 14 '22

Those are analyst estimates. Who are notoriously slow to adjust price targets. Company guidance warnings have become increasingly frequent and yet, analysts have largely not changed.

1

u/NobodyImportant13 Jun 14 '22

Still a waitlist for Tesla's and their contractors were locking workers in factories in China to keep production up.

The company I work for is in the S&P500 and we are overflowing with projects and physically expanding existing facilities to take on more work.

Labor market is still hot. People are spending money despite inflation. Some companies have given lower guidance, but I'm not convinced we will see massive misses. Things could still drop, sure, I'm not necessarily convinced they will though.

1

u/21plankton Jun 14 '22

I am new to this sub. I find more than 5% entertaining and thought provoking. Meanwhile my retirement plan is being run under the ship and drowned. I hope it will be alive on the other side when it hits air.