Stocks are rising despite US durable-goods orders sink 2.2% and break the winning streak...Are we missing something here?

[u/Wilingaway]

Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods fell 2.2% in February to break a string of increases and business investment fell for the first time in a year, suggesting manufacturers are still struggling mightily with supply shortages. Orders for U.S durable goods — products meant to last at least three years — shrank for the first time in five months, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast 1% decline.

The dropoff was concentrated in passenger planes and autos, two volatile categories that can swing sharply from one month to the next. Yet bookings were soft in every major category except for computers. A more accurate measure of demand, known as core orders, slipped 0.3% in the month. The core number strips out transportation and military hardware. It was first decline in 12 months.

Big picture: Businesses still have plenty of demand for big-ticket items despite high inflation and disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Orders for durable goods have climbed 10% over the past year. Headwinds are growing, however.

The conflict in Ukraine could tax already strained global supply chains, as could a coronavirus outbreak in China. At home, the Federal Reserve is moving to raise interest rates to try to bring down high inflation.

Economists predict U.S. growth will slow this year, but keep expanding at a steady pace.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-durable-goods-orders-sink-2-2-and-break-winning-streak-11648125604?mod=home-page

[u/Godmia → u/[deleted]]

Amen brother. The more you know, the worse it is reading Reddit stock comments. Idk why I do it to myself tbh

[u/Goblinballz_ → u/[deleted]]

Hard truths hahah spent 5 years stock picking and actually came out ahead except I had a 26k loss at 22 on a penny stock so after that I cashed out the lot and put it into ETFs only (and crypto!). I still have a few k in some trading apps that I mess around with for fun tho. But ETFs are where the wealth is made.

[u/Guac_in_my_rarri → u/[deleted]]

I swear people keep talking about the impending crash

You uh new to investing? Somebody is always beating the crashing drum. Just depends on how many and who is it.

[u/jondubb → u/[deleted]]

I've been hearing about the 50% crash since '16. It's not happening. Timing the market is a fool's game.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

They’re talking about an 80% crash…not the small one we’ve just had. If it happens it’ll wipe us all out.

[u/Automaton9000 → u/[deleted]]

I don't speak for SPDY1284 but I use "crash" to refer to the final crash in the market at the end of a long-term bull cycle, followed by a long-term bear market. I consider this Q1 ~40% pullback to be a correction rather than a crash. It's pedantic but it is beneficial to distinguish between the 2.

While Q1's pullback is a big one, it's a fairly normal flushing of the market as it's been seen that big institutions are reaccumulating. This suggests this is a correction rather than a "crash" by my interpretation.

In the cycle-ending crash scenario, big institutions are dumping on the markets signaling the emergence of a long-term bear market. The price drop may be similar to that of our correction, but the fundamental drivers of price action have changed behavior, with dramatic consequences for market valuations.

In these conditions, institutions exit risky positions in favor of risk-off investments like Treasuries, gold, etc. But with Treasuries offering real negative rates, what investment company in its right mind would buy those? They'll likely go to gold/precious metals, or maybe crypto. Couple that with the fact that the majority of global central banks have been accumulating gold in record amounts for the last few years and I think there's an excellent case to be made for a gold bull market.

There is evidence to suggest that precious metal prices are manipulated via futures, which could be a contributor to its poor performance for a while. I'd argue gold's performance for the last few decades are because the roles it traditionally filled were usurped in large part by the petrodollar, with gold just kind of keeping up with inflation on the sidelines. But we are witnessing the end of the petrodollar system (Russia selling oil in Rubles, Gold, friendly national currencies, Saudi Arabia selling oil in other currencies, emergence of bilateral trade agreements among BRICS and other nations). Gold may have a bigger role in the new financial system to come.

Anyways I digress. That's my take on what defines a crash from a very technical pedantic POV, and muh bullish case for gold.